RESUMO
Scenario and policy assessments in socioeconomic and environmental studies face significant challenges in socio-ecological systems (SES). There are a limited number of studies that have looked at the impact of different scenarios within integrated approaches, and many have used a static approach with a single driver of change. The present work analyzes the SES dynamics for a strategic basin in the Colombian Andes when implementing and analyzing scenarios and policies related to land cover and land use change using a system dynamics simulation model. The model includes natural, ecosystem services, sociocultural, and economic components. Scenarios and policy options are analyzed both individually and jointly to identify synergies or trade-off effects between the different SES components. The results showed the different trajectories of the socio-ecological system according to the cases studied, and its impact on different variables in the analyzed components. Some counterintuitive effects were also identified, such as the importance of intrinsic motivations in decision-making processes, and determinants in land management and policy design.
RESUMO
Este artículo utiliza el análisis sistémico, para describir la operación de una Administradora de Riesgos Profesionales (ARP). Para este fin se estudian las características complejas que caracterizan el sistema de riesgos de profesionales y que afectan su operación. Se propone la metodología de dinámica de sistemas para la modelación en ambientes complejos, como el sistema de riesgos profesionales y sus administradoras. Se presenta la estructura básica del modelo, utilizando diagramas causales. Se concluye que la operación de una ARP cuenta con ciclos de realimentación, relaciones no lineales y retardos de tiempo, que crean dificultad en la comprensión del sistema. Se propone la modelación como alternativa para mejorar la toma de decisiones.
This paper describes the operational cycle of a workers compensation insurer in Colombia. Itexplains the basic characteristics of complexity wich are presented in systems like occupationalrisk, and proposes the use of system dynamics as an alternative to model those characteristics.The paper uses the causal loop diagrams to present the basic structure of the operational cyclemodel. We concluded that the operational cycle has important feedback cycles, time delays,and nonlinear relations that affect the understanding of the real system. Thus, the use of systemthinking and formal simulation models are useful tools to understand and improve decisionsin real systems.
Com este fim, estudam-se as características de complexidade que caracterizan tais sistemas e que afetam sua operação. Propõe-se a metodologia de dinâmica de sistemas para a criação de um modelo que incorpore o complexo ambiente de administradoras de riscos.Diagramas causais são utilizados para apresentar a estrutura básica do modelo. Com base nas análises conclui-se que a operação de uma administradora de riscos conta com ciclos de realimentação, relações não lineares e atraso de tempo, aspectos que dificultam a compreensão dosistema. Propõe-se a criação de modelos matemáticos de dinâmica de sistemas como alternativa para melhoria da tomada de decisões.