RESUMO
Scenario and policy assessments in socioeconomic and environmental studies face significant challenges in socio-ecological systems (SES). There are a limited number of studies that have looked at the impact of different scenarios within integrated approaches, and many have used a static approach with a single driver of change. The present work analyzes the SES dynamics for a strategic basin in the Colombian Andes when implementing and analyzing scenarios and policies related to land cover and land use change using a system dynamics simulation model. The model includes natural, ecosystem services, sociocultural, and economic components. Scenarios and policy options are analyzed both individually and jointly to identify synergies or trade-off effects between the different SES components. The results showed the different trajectories of the socio-ecological system according to the cases studied, and its impact on different variables in the analyzed components. Some counterintuitive effects were also identified, such as the importance of intrinsic motivations in decision-making processes, and determinants in land management and policy design.
RESUMO
The adaptive capacity (AC) of social systems to degradation of ecosystem services is defined as the response capacity of the system to a threat, such as changes in supply and delivery of ecosystem services (ES). In this paper, we propose an adaptive capacity composite indicator vis-a-vis the loss or degradation of ecosystem services that can be evaluated at household level in rural areas. For the estimation of the AC composite indicator, we evaluated 16 variables grouped into six categories that were previously validated with a group of experts in the area. The variables were evaluated in ten types of household profiles identified in relation with the services of water provision and erosion control in the Riogrande Basin in Colombia. The composite indicator is built both through experts' focus groups to find weights of the variables and categories and principal component analysis. In both methods, variables such as institutional efficiency, distribution and availability of information, technology and innovation, as well as local ecological knowledge were the main determinants of AC of the households.