Assuntos
Migração Animal , Borboletas , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Agricultura Florestal , Florestas , Animais , México , População , Estações do AnoRESUMO
To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.
Assuntos
Borboletas/fisiologia , Agricultura , Migração Animal , Animais , Asclepias/efeitos dos fármacos , Asclepias/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Asclepias/parasitologia , Borboletas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Herbicidas/toxicidade , México , Caules de Planta/parasitologia , Densidade Demográfica , Estações do AnoRESUMO
Addressing population declines of migratory insects requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding the effects of variation in weather and climate on productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long-distance movement. We used stable H and C isotopes and geospatial modeling to estimate the natal origin of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America using over 1000 monarchs collected over almost four decades at Mexican overwintering colonies. Multinomial regression was used to ascertain which climate-related factors best-predicted temporal variation in natal origin across six breeding regions. The region producing the largest proportion of overwintering monarchs was the US Midwest (mean annual proportion = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36-0.41) followed by the north-central (0.17; 0.14-0.18), northeast (0.15; 0.11-0.16), northwest (0.12; 0.12-0.16), southwest (0.11; 0.08-0.12), and southeast (0.08; 0.07-0.11) regions. There was no evidence of directional shifts in the relative contributions of different natal regions over time, which suggests these regions are comprising the same relative proportion of the overwintering population in recent years as in the mid-1970s. Instead, interannual variation in the proportion of monarchs from each region covaried with climate, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index and regional-specific daily maximum temperature and precipitation, which together likely dictate larval development rates and food plant condition. Our results provide the first robust long-term analysis of predictors of the natal origins of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Conservation efforts on the breeding grounds focused on the Midwest region will likely have the greatest benefit to eastern North American migratory monarchs, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns.
Assuntos
Migração Animal , Borboletas , Clima , Animais , México , ReproduçãoRESUMO
Mice (Peromyscus melanotis) immigrate extensively to overwintering colonies of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in México. There they feed on both live and dead butterflies that accumulate on the ground and in low vegetation. Through a series of feeding experiments, we examined the potential impact of mouse predation on these colonies, as well as how this predation was influenced by the accessibility and the degree of desiccation of the monarchs. Mice attacked on average 39.9 wet (freshlykilled) butterflies per night. We estimated that a population of mice (75-105 individuals) could kill approximately 0.40-0.57 million butterflies in a 1 ha colony (4-5.7% of the colony) over the 135-day overwintering season. In feeding experiments, mice fed disproportionately on: 1) wet (hydrated) monarchs close to the ground versus those perched higher; 2) wet monarchs, when both wet and dry (desiccated) monarchs were on the ground; and 3) wet monarchs on stakes versus dry monarchs on the ground. Mice commonly ate the entire abdomen of dry monarchs, whereas they fed selectively on the abdomen of wet monarchs by discarding the bitter, cardenolide-laden cuticle and eating the internal tissues. These results suggest that the monarchs' state of desiccation is more important than their accessibility in determining the feeding preferences of these mice. However, the monarchs' strong tendency to crawl up vegetation does appear to reduce their risk to mouse predation.
RESUMO
By suspending nets within and adjacent to a 2.25 hectare overwintering colony of monarch butterflies in Mexico, we estimated that black-backed orioles and black-headed grosbeaks killed 4,550 to 34,300 and an average of 15,067 butterflies per day. A conservative calculation of mortality through the 135 day overwintering season was 2.034 million butterflies, or about 9% of the colony. The birds preyed selectively upon male butterflies, possibly because of a difference in fat content, or possibly because females contain higher concentrations and larger amounts of cardenolide or other defensive chemicals. The risk to individual monarchs of being killed was much greater on the colony periphery and in thinned areas of the forest. Bird predation thus is sufficient to have played a major role in shaping the evolution of the monarch's overwintering and aggregation behavior. Substantial daily variation in predation intensity occurred, 26% of which was attributable to the birds eating more butterflies on colder days, and 30% of which was attributable to a 7.85 day predation cycle. The hypothesis is put forward that the birds feed cyclically because they build up toxic levels of cardenolides or other defensive chemicals contained in the butterflies. The cyclic predation may reduce total predation on the colony by as much as 50%. Such chemical-based group protection is interpreted as a fortuitous by-product of the evolution of unpalatability through selective processes acting on other phases of the monarch's life history.