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The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Latin America (2015-2016) has primarily been studied in urban centers, with less understanding of its impact on smaller rural communities. To address this gap, we analyzed ZIKV sero-epidemiology in six rural Ecuadorian communities (2018-2019) with varying access to a commercial hub. Seroprevalence ranged from 19% to 54% measured by NS1 blockade of binding ELISA. We observed a decline in ZIKV seroprevalence between 2018 and 2019 that was greater among younger populations, suggesting that the attack rates in the 2015-16 epidemic were significantly higher than our 2018 observations. These data indicate that the 2015-16 epidemic included significant transmission in rural and more remote settings. Our observations of high seroprevalence in our area of study highlights the importance of surveillance and research in rural areas lacking robust health systems to manage future Zika outbreaks and vaccine initiatives.

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Urban wastewater reuse for agriculture provides reliable nutrient-rich water, reduces water stress, and strengthens food systems. However, wastewater reuse also presents health risks and characterizing the spatial dynamics of wastewater can help optimize risk mitigation. We conducted comparative risk analysis of exposure to wastewater in irrigation canals, where we compared those exposed to a) treated vs. untreated wastewater, and b) wastewater upstream vs. downstream from communities in the Mezquital Valley. The canal system with treated wastewater was sampled prior to being treated, directly after treatment, as well as before and after it flowed through a community. Along the canal system that carried untreated wastewater, we sampled before and after a community. We quantified the concentrations of bacterial, protozoal, and viral pathogens in the wastewater. Pathogen concentration data were used to calculate measures of relative risk between sampling points. Wastewater treatment reduced predicted bacterial pathogen infection risk in post-treatment locations (RR = 0.73, 95 % CI 0.61, 0.87), with no evidence of similar reductions in Giardia or viral pathogens (RR = 1.02, 95 % CI 0.56, 1.86 and RR = 1.18, 95 % CI 0.70, 2.02 respectively). Although infection risk decreased further down the canals, infection risk increased for bacterial pathogens after our sentinel community (RR = 1.94, 95 % 1.34, 2.86). For Giardia and viral pathogens infection risk was elevated but not significantly. We found similar evidence for increases in risk when comparing the treated section of the canal system with a canal section whose wastewater was not treated, i.e., the risk benefits of wastewater treatment were lost after our sentinel community for bacteria (RR = 5.27 vs. 2.08 for sampling points before and after our sentinel community respectively) and for Giardia (RR = 6.98 vs. 3.35 respectively). The increase in risk after transit through communities could have resulted from local community recontamination of the treated wastewater stream.

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The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Here, we study dengue virus (DENV) transmission across the ecologically and demographically distinct regions or Ecuador. We analyzed province-level age-stratified dengue incidence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have age-specific distributions of hospital-seeking cases consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. To evaluate factors associated with geographic differences in DENV transmission potential, we modeled DENV vector risk using 11,693 Aedes aegypti presence points to the resolution of 1 hectare. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador, including in provinces identified as having increasing DENV transmission in our models, live in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti, with population size, trash collection, elevation, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.

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Maternal depression remains under characterised in many low- and middle-income countries, especially in rural settings. We aimed to describe maternal depression and anxiety symptoms in rural and urban communities in northern Ecuador and to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with these symptoms. Data from 508 mothers participating in a longitudinal cohort study were included. Depression and anxiety symptoms were assessed using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25), and maternal psychological functioning was assessed using a checklist of daily activities. Tobit regression models were used to examine associations with sociodemographic variables and urbanicity. The median HSCL-25 score was 1.2 (IQR: 0.4) and 14% of women scored above the threshold for clinically relevant symptoms. Rural women reported similar food insecurity, less education, younger age of first pregnancy, and lower socio-economic status compared to their urban counterparts. After adjusting for these factors, rural women reported lower HSCL-25 scores compared to women lin urban areas (ß = -0.48, 95%CI:0.65, -0.31). Rural residence was also associated with lower depression and anxiety HSCL-25 sub-scale scores, and similar levels of maternal functioning, compared to urban residence. Our results suggest that both household and community-level factors are risk factors for maternal depression and anxiety in this context.

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The increasing abundance of extended spectrum (ß-lactamase (ESBL) genes in E. coli, and other commensal and pathogenic bacteria, endangers the utility of third or more recent generation cephalosporins, which are major tools for fighting deadly infections. The role of domestic animals in the transmission of ESBL carrying bacteria has been recognized, especially in low- and middle-income countries, however the horizontal gene transfer of these genes is difficult to assess. Here we investigate blaCTX-M gene diversity (and flanking nucleotide sequences) in E. coli from chicken and humans, in an Ecuadorian rural community and from chickens in another location in Ecuador. The blaCTX-M associated sequences in isolates from humans and chickens in the same remote community showed greater similarity than those found in E. coli in a chicken industrial operation 200 km away. Our study may provide evidence of blaCTX-M transfer between chickens and humans in the community.

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The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Ecuador is an interesting country to study drivers of dengue virus (DENV) transmission given it has multiple ecologically and demographically distinct regions. Here, we analyze province-level age-stratified dengue prevalence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades and across provinces in Ecuador. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have distinct age-specific prevalence distributions consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. We evaluated factors to the resolution of 1 hectare associated with geographic differences in vector suitability and arbovirus disease in the last 10 years by modeling 11,693 A aegypti presence points and 73,550 arbovirus cases. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador lives in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti. Most suitable provinces had hotspots for arbovirus disease risk, with population size, elevation, sewage connection, trash collection, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.

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Background: Constraints on food choice increase risk of malnutrition worldwide. Residents of secondary cities within low- and middle-income countries are a population of particular concern because they often face high rates of food insecurity and multiple nutritional burdens. Within this context, effective and equitable interventions to support healthy diets must be based on an understanding of the lived experience of individuals and their interactions with the food environment. Objectives: The primary objectives of this study were to describe considerations that drive household decision making around food choice in the city of Esmeraldas, Ecuador; to identify trade-offs between these considerations; and to understand how an evolving urban environment influences these trade-offs. Methods: Semistructured interviews were conducted with 20 mothers of young children to explore drivers in food choice throughout the purchase, preparation, and consumption chain. Interviews were transcribed and coded to identify key themes. Results: Personal preference, economic access (costs), convenience, and perceptions of food safety were key influencers of decision making related to food. In addition, concerns about personal safety in the urban environment limited physical access to food. This, combined with the need to travel long distances to obtain desirable foods, increased men's participation in food purchasing. Women's increasing engagement in the workforce also increased men's participation in food preparation. Conclusions: Policies to promote healthy food behavior in this context should focus on increasing access to health foods, such as affordable fresh produce, in convenient and physically safe locations. CurrDev Nutr 2023;x:xx.

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For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], a measure of a disease's epidemic potential, is highly temperature-dependent. Recent work characterizing these temperature dependencies has highlighted how climate change may impact geographic disease spread. We extend this prior work by examining how newly emerging diseases, like Zika, will be impacted by specific future climate change scenarios in four diverse regions of Brazil, a country that has been profoundly impacted by Zika. We estimated a [Formula: see text], derived from a compartmental transmission model, characterizing Zika (and, for comparison, dengue) transmission potential as a function of temperature-dependent biological parameters specific to Aedes aegypti. We obtained historical temperature data for the five-year period 2015-2019 and projections for 2045-2049 by fitting cubic spline interpolations to data from simulated atmospheric data provided by the CMIP-6 project (specifically, generated by the GFDL-ESM4 model), which provides projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). These four SSP scenarios correspond to varying levels of climate change severity. We applied this approach to four Brazilian cities (Manaus, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo) that represent diverse climatic regions. Our model predicts that the [Formula: see text] for Zika peaks at 2.7 around 30°C, while for dengue it peaks at 6.8 around 31°C. We find that the epidemic potential of Zika will increase beyond current levels in Brazil in all of the climate scenarios. For Manaus, we predict that the annual [Formula: see text] range will increase from 2.1-2.5, to 2.3-2.7, for Recife we project an increase from 0.4-1.9 to 0.6-2.3, for Rio de Janeiro from 0-1.9 to 0-2.3, and for São Paulo from 0-0.3 to 0-0.7. As Zika immunity wanes and temperatures increase, there will be increasing epidemic potential and longer transmission seasons, especially in regions where transmission is currently marginal. Surveillance systems should be implemented and sustained for early detection.

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Although dengue is typically considered an urban disease, rural communities are also at high risk. To clarify dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) transmission in settings with characteristics generally considered rural (e.g., lower population density, remoteness), we conducted a phylogenetic analysis in 6 communities in northwestern Ecuador. DENV RNA was detected by PCR in 121/488 serum samples collected from febrile case-patients during 2019-2021. Phylogenetic analysis of 27 samples from Ecuador and other countries in South America confirmed that DENV-1 circulated during May 2019-March 2020 and DENV-2 circulated during December 2020-July 2021. Combining locality and isolation dates, we found strong evidence that DENV entered Ecuador through the northern province of Esmeraldas. Phylogenetic patterns suggest that, within this province, communities with larger populations and commercial centers were more often the source of DENV but that smaller, remote communities also play a role in regional transmission dynamics.

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Mosquito-borne diseases are a global burden; however, current methods of evaluating human-mosquito contact rates are expensive and time consuming. Validated surveys of self-reported mosquito bites may be an inexpensive way to determine mosquito presence and bite exposure level in an area, but this remains untested. In this study, a survey of self-reported mosquito bites was validated against household mosquito abundance from six communities in Esmeraldas, Ecuador. From February 2021 to July 2022, households were interviewed monthly, and five questions were used to ask participants how often they were bitten by mosquitoes at different times during the day. At the same time, adult mosquitoes were collected using a Prokopack aspirator. Species were identified and counted. Survey responses were compared with the total number of mosquitoes found in the home using negative binomial regression. More frequent self-reported mosquito bites were significantly associated with higher numbers of collected adult mosquitoes. These associations were driven by the prevalence of the dominant genera, Culex. These results suggest that surveys of perceived mosquito bites relate to actual mosquito presence, making them a potentially useful tool for determining the impact of vector-control interventions on community perceptions of risk but less useful for assessing the risk of nondominant species such as Aedes aegypti. Further work is needed to examine the robustness of these results in other contexts.

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