RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium recommended annual imaging for individuals at increased risk for developing a pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) who did not have concerning pancreatic findings or a cyst <3 cm without worrisome features. We aimed to determine if 3-cm cyst size accurately predicted advanced precursor lesions in high-risk individuals undergoing surveillance. METHODS: Imaging for high-risk individuals (HRIs) undergoing PDAC surveillance from 2007 to 2021 was reviewed and pancreatic abnormalities were recorded including dominant cyst size and number of cysts. Subjects were excluded if they had the following: (1) no follow-up imaging after baseline, (2) solid lesion at baseline, or (3) development of solid lesion without having cyst on prior imaging. RESULTS: Five of the 77 HRIs found to have a cystic lesion on surveillance developed a PDAC: 3 with cystic lesion >1 cm as compared with only 2 of 67 HRIs with cystic lesions <1 cm (P < 0.05). None of these cysts developed worrisome findings and 4/5 PDACs did not arise from visualized cystic precursor lesion. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a cyst ≥1 cm were at increased risk for developing PDAC compared with patients with cyst <1 cm. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma usually did not arise from a recognized cystic lesion.