RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Argentina's congress passed a tobacco control law that would enforce 100% smoke-free environments for the entire country, strong and pictorial health warnings on tobacco products and a comprehensive advertising ban. However, the Executive Branch continues to review the law and it has not been fully implemented. Our objective was to project the potential impact of full implementation of this tobacco control legislation on cardiovascular disease. METHODS: The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model was used to project future cardiovascular events. Data sources for the model included vital statistics, morbidity and mortality data, and tobacco use estimates from the National Risk Factor Survey. Estimated effectiveness of interventions was based on a literature review. Results were expressed as life-years, myocardial infarctions and strokes saved in an 8-year-period between 2012 and 2020. In addition we projected the incremental effectiveness on the same outcomes of a tobacco price increase not included in the law. RESULTS: In the period 2012-2020, 7500 CHD deaths, 16 900 myocardial infarctions and 4300 strokes could be avoided with the full implementation and enforcement of this law. Annual per cent reduction would be 3% for CHD deaths, 3% for myocardial infarctions and 1% for stroke. If a tobacco price increase is implemented the projected avoided CHD deaths, myocardial infarctions and strokes would be 15 500, 34 600 and 11 900, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the tobacco control law would produce significant public health benefits in Argentina. Strong advocacy is needed at national and international levels to get this law implemented throughout Argentina.
Assuntos
Doença das Coronárias/prevenção & controle , Infarto do Miocárdio/prevenção & controle , Fumar/legislação & jurisprudência , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/prevenção & controle , Poluição por Fumaça de Tabaco/legislação & jurisprudência , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Argentina/epidemiologia , Doença das Coronárias/etiologia , Doença das Coronárias/mortalidade , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infarto do Miocárdio/etiologia , Saúde Pública , Fatores de Risco , Prevenção do Hábito de Fumar , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/etiologia , Poluição por Fumaça de Tabaco/efeitos adversosRESUMO
Objetivo. Estimar la relación costo-utilidad de una intervención dirigida a reducir el consumo de sal en la dieta de personas mayores de 35 años en Argentina. Métodos. La intervención consistió en reducir entre 5% y 25% el contenido de sal en los alimentos. Se utilizó el modelo de simulación del impacto de las políticas sobre la enfermedad coronaria para predecir la evolución de la incidencia, la prevalencia, la mortalidad y los costos en la población de la enfermedad coronaria y cerebrovascular en personas de 35 a 84 años. Se modeló el efecto y los costos de una disminución de 3 g de sal en la dieta, mediante su reducción en alimentos procesados y en la añadida por los consumidores, por un período de 10 años. Se estimó el cambio en la ocurrencia de eventos en este período y la ganancia en años de vida ajustados por la calidad (AVAC) en un escenario de efecto alto y otro de efecto bajo. Resultados. La intervención generó un ahorro neto de US$ 3 765 millones y una ganancia de 656 657 AVAC en el escenario de efecto alto y de US$ 2 080 millones y 401 659 AVAC en el escenario de efecto bajo. Se obtendrían reducciones en la incidencia de enfermedad coronaria (24,1%), infarto agudo de miocardio (21,6%) y accidente cerebrovascular (20,5%), y en la mortalidad por enfermedad coronaria (19,9%) y por todas las causas (6,4%). Se observaron beneficios para todos los grupos de edad y sexo. Conclusiones. La implementación de esta estrategia de reducción del consumo de sal produciría un efecto sanitario muy positivo, tanto en AVAC ganados como en recursos económicos ahorrados.
Objective. Estimate the cost-utility ratio of an intervention to reduce dietary salt intake in people over the age of 35 in Argentina. Methods. The intervention consisted of reducing salt content in food by 5% to 25%. A simulation model was used to measure the impact of policies on heart disease in order to predict incidence, prevalence, mortality, and cost trends for heart and cerebrovascular disease in the population aged 3584. The intervention modeled the impact and costs of a 3-gram reduction in dietary salt intake by reducing the amount of salt in processed food and salt added to food by the participants themselves over a 10-year period. Changes in event occurrence during this period and gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were estimated in high- and low-impact scenarios. Results. The intervention generated a net savings of US$ 3 765 million and a gain of 656 657 QALYs in the high-impact scenario and a savings of US$ 2 080 million and 401 659 QALY in the low-impact scenario. The result would be reductions in the incidence of heart disease (24.1%), acute myocardial infarction (21.6%), and stroke (20.5%), as well as in mortality from heart disease (19.9%) and all causes (6.4%). Benefits were observed for all age groups and both genders. Conclusions. Implementing this strategy to reduce salt intake would produce a very positive health impact, both in QALY gains and savings in economic resources.
Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Promoção da Saúde/economia , Cloreto de Sódio na Dieta/administração & dosagem , Argentina/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Análise Custo-Benefício , Incidência , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de VidaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Estimate the cost-utility ratio of an intervention to reduce dietary salt intake in people over the age of 35 in Argentina. METHODS: The intervention consisted of reducing salt content in food by 5% to 25%. A simulation model was used to measure the impact of policies on heart disease in order to predict incidence, prevalence, mortality, and cost trends for heart and cerebrovascular disease in the population aged 35 - 84. The intervention modeled the impact and costs of a 3-gram reduction in dietary salt intake by reducing the amount of salt in processed food and salt added to food by the participants themselves over a 10-year period. Changes in event occurrence during this period and gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were estimated in high- and low-impact scenarios. RESULTS: The intervention generated a net savings of US$ 3 765 million and a gain of 656 657 QALYs in the high-impact scenario and a savings of US$ 2 080 million and 401 659 QALY in the low-impact scenario. The result would be reductions in the incidence of heart disease (24.1%), acute myocardial infarction (21.6%), and stroke (20.5%), as well as in mortality from heart disease (19.9%) and all causes (6.4%). Benefits were observed for all age groups and both genders. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing this strategy to reduce salt intake would produce a very positive health impact, both in QALY gains and savings in economic resources.
Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Promoção da Saúde/economia , Cloreto de Sódio na Dieta/administração & dosagem , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Argentina/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de VidaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in Argentina and the U.S. Argentina is 92% urban, with cardiovascular disease risk factor levels approximating the U.S. METHODS: The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model is a national-scale computer model of CHD and stroke. Risk factor data were obtained from the Cardiovascular Risk Factor Multiple Evaluation in Latin America Study (2003-04), Argentina National Risk Factor Survey (2005) and U.S. national surveys. Proportions of cardiovascular events over 2005-2015 attributable to risk factors were simulated by setting risk factors to optimal exposure levels [systolic blood pressure (SBP) 115 mm Hg, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) 2.00 mmol/l (78 mg/dl), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) 1.03 mmol/l (60 mg/dl), absence of diabetes, and smoking]. Cardiovascular disease attributable to body mass index (BMI) >21 kg/m² was assumed mediated through SBP, LDL, HDL, and diabetes. RESULTS: Cardiovascular disease attributable to major risk factors was similar between Argentina and the U.S., except for elevated SBP in men (CHD 8% points higher in Argentine men, 6% higher for stroke). CHD attributable to BMI >21 kg/m² was substantially higher in the U.S. (men 10-11% points higher; women CHD 13-14% higher). CONCLUSIONS: Projected cardiovascular disease attributable to major risk factors appeared similar in Argentina and the U.S., though elevated BMI may be responsible for more of U.S. cardiovascular disease. A highly urbanized middle-income nation can have cardiovascular disease rates and risk factor levels comparable to a high income nation, but fewer resources for fighting the epidemic.
Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Doença das Coronárias/epidemiologia , Política de Saúde , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Argentina/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador/tendências , Doença das Coronárias/etiologia , Complicações do Diabetes/complicações , Complicações do Diabetes/epidemiologia , Feminino , Política de Saúde/tendências , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos/métodos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Fumar/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/etiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 3 approaches to managing elevated blood pressure (BP) in adolescents in the United States: no intervention, "screen-and-treat," and population-wide strategies to lower the entire BP distribution. STUDY DESIGN: We used a simulation model to combine several data sources to project the lifetime costs and cardiovascular outcomes for a cohort of 15-year-old U.S. adolescents under different BP approaches and conducted cost-effectiveness analysis. We obtained BP distributions from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004 and used childhood-to-adult longitudinal correlation analyses to simulate the tracking of BP. We then used the coronary heart disease policy model to estimate lifetime coronary heart disease events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). RESULTS: Among screen-and-treat strategies, finding and treating the adolescents at highest risk (eg, left ventricular hypertrophy) was most cost-effective ($18000/QALY [boys] and $47000/QALY [girls]). However, all screen-and-treat strategies were dominated by population-wide strategies such as salt reduction (cost-saving [boys] and $650/QALY [girls]) and increasing physical education ($11000/QALY [boys] and $35000/QALY [girls]). CONCLUSIONS: Routine adolescents BP screening is moderately effective, but population-based BP interventions with broader reach could potentially be less costly and more effective for early cardiovascular disease prevention and should be implemented in parallel.