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Tuberculosis (TB) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) is usually paucibacillary and the smear microscopy has limitations and may lead to high proportions of non-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (NC-PTB). Despite culture being the reference method, it usually takes 6 to 8 weeks to produce the results. This study aimed to analyze the effect of a rapid molecular test (Xpert) in the confirmatory rate of PTB among PLHIV, from 2010 to 2020, in São Paulo state, Brazil. This is an ecological study with time series analysis of the trend and the NC-PTB rates before and after Xpert implementation in 21 municipalities. The use of Xpert started and gradually increased after 2014, while the rate of NC-PTB in PLHIV decreased over this time, being more significant between late 2015 and mid-2017. The city of Ribeirão Preto stands out for having the highest percentage (75.0%) of Xpert testing among PLHIV and for showing two reductions in the NC-PTB rate. The cities with low Xpert coverage had a slower and smaller decrease in the NC-PTB rate. Despite being available since 2014, a significant proportion of PLHIV suspected of PTB in the state of São Paulo did not have an Xpert ordered by the doctors. The implementation of Xpert reduced the NC-PTB rates with growing effect as the coverage increased in the municipality.

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Despite considerable therapeutic advances in the care of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and an overall reduction of 47% in the AIDS mortality rate in the last decade, the AIDS-mortality rates remains high. The social determinants of health (SDH) have a direct influence on the dynamics of this phenomenon. However, changes in SDH caused by the implemented policies against HIV have been poorly investigated. Moreover, the Brazilian rainforest has had the highest and continuously increasing AIDS mortality rate in Brazil since the 1980s. In this study, AIDS mortality in a province of the Brazilian rainforest was examined by using temporal and spatial analyses. METHODS: In this ecological study, data from 2007 to 2018 were extracted from the Mortality Information System provided by the State Department of Public Health of Pará. For the temporal analysis, the integrated autoregressive model of moving average (ARIMA) and locally weighted polynomial regression (STLF) were used to forecast AIDS mortality from 2019 to 2022. For the spatial analysis, spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression (GWR) analyses were employed. RESULTS: The samples consisted of 6,498 notifications for AIDS-related deaths. From 2007 to 2013, the AIDS mortality rates showed an upward trend, followed by a stabilization until 2018 and an upward forecasted trend from 2019 to 2022. High mortality rates and high-high clusters were found in economic pole municipalities. Furthermore, AIDS mortality risk was directly associated with per capita income and demographic density, except in the southwestern region of Pará, which exhibited an inverse association with population density. CONCLUSION: Although the policies against HIV may have contributed to the stabilization of AIDS mortality rates from 2013 in Pará, the upward forecasted trend until 2022 raises an alert and concern to health authorities to provide reinforcement of the policies. The geographic variability of AIDS mortality promoted by SDH provides subsidies to health authorities to implement SDH-focused strategies for AIDS mortality reduction.

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BACKGROUND: The main goal of this study was to analyze the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic temporally and spatially in Belém from 2007 to 2018. METHODS: The incidence rates were analyzed according to time using autoregressive integrated moving-average models, as well as spatially using spatial autocorrelation, Kernel density, scan statistics, and regression techniques. RESULTS: During the study period, 6007 notifications of new cases of HIV/AIDS were reported. The time series analysis revealed a stabilized trend of incidence from 2007 to October 2016, followed by irregular fluctuations until the end of December 2018. Seasonal behavior was observed from 2019 to 2022. The high-high incidence clusters were found in the central and transition areas. An expansion of the number of new reported cases was observed in the central area. Three spatial risk zones were observed. The higher relative risk zone was concentrated in the transition area. The spatial regression showed that the incidence rates were positively correlated with the Family Health Strategy (FHS) coverage. CONCLUSIONS: To eliminate HIV in Belém, it will be necessary to decentralize testing and ART and expand the coverage of FHS to ensure universal access to healthcare for citizens.

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BACKGROUND: We aimed to visualize and classify the time series of COVID-19, tuberculosis (TB) notification, and TB outcomes (cure, treatment abandonment, and death), verify the impact of the new coronavirus pandemic on these indices in Brazil, and verify the presence of spatial autocorrelation between COVID-19 and TB. METHODS: This was an ecological time series study that considered TB and COVID-19 cases. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) was used to trace the temporal trend, Prais-Winsten was used to classify the temporal trend, Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to verify the impact of COVID-19 on TB rates, and the Bivariate Moran Index (Global and Local) was used to verify the spatial autocorrelation of events. RESULTS: Brazil and its macro-regions showed an increasing temporal trend for the notification of TB in the pre-pandemic period. Only the Northeast Region showed a decreasing temporal trend for cured cases. For treatment abandonment, all regions except for the Northeast showed an increasing temporal trend, and regarding death, Brazil and the Northeast Region showed an increasing temporal trend. With the ITS, COVID-19 caused a decline in TB notification rates and TB outcome rates. With the global spatial analysis, it was possible to identify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the notification rate of COVID-19 and the TB notification rate and deaths. With the local analysis, it was possible to map the Brazilian municipalities and classify them according to the relationship between the rates of both diseases and space. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 influenced the follow-up of and adherence to TB treatment and intensified social vulnerability and, consequently, affected the notification of TB since the relationship between the disease and social determinants of health is already known. The restoration and strengthening of essential services for the prevention and detection of cases and treatment of TB in endemic environments such as Brazil have been oriented as a priority in the global health agenda.

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BACKGROUND: The main goal of this study was to analyze the HIV epidemic temporally and spatially among young people living in Pará, Brazil, from 2007 to 2018. METHODS: For the temporal analysis, we employed an integrated autoregression of moving averages model associated with the seasonal trend using the LOESS decomposition method, which allowed for predictions to be made. In the spatial analysis, the techniques of autocorrelation, spatial and spatio-temporal risk analysis, and geographically weighted regression were used. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 8143 notifications of HIV/AIDS cases. The temporal prediction indicated a trend of growth in the incidence rate in the 20-24-year-old group from January 2019 to December 2022 and a trend of stability in the 15- to 19-year-old and 25- to 29-year-old groups. There was a territorial expansion of the HIV epidemic in Pará. Novo Progresso and the Metropolitan Region of Belém (RMB) were the zones with the highest spatial and spatio-temporal risk for HIV. Social determinants including the Basic Education Development Index, the number of physicians per 10,000 inhabitants, and the municipal high school abandonment rate in the municipalities were associated with the risk of HIV/AIDS among young people in Pará. CONCLUSIONS: To eliminate HIV among young people in Pará, the access to treatment, diagnosis, and preventive healthcare services should be expanded. Sexual and reproductive health education should be reinforced in schools and communities. Furthermore, it is necessary to promote social equity and fight HIV stigma.

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OBJECTIVES: To identify risk-prone areas for the spread of tuberculosis, analyze spatial variation and temporal trends of the disease in these areas and identify their determinants in a high burden city. METHODS: An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The population was composed of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 and 2017. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using the Loess decomposition method was used. Spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were applied to identify risk areas. Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) was used to detect risk-prone territories with changes in the temporal trend. Finally, Pearson's Chi-square test was performed to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality. RESULTS: Between 2006 and 2017, 1760 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in the municipality. With spatial scanning, four groups of clusters were identified with relative risks (RR) from 0.19 to 0.52, 1.73, 2.07, and 2.68 to 2.72. With the space-time scan, four clusters were also identified with RR of 0.13 (2008-2013), 1.94 (2010-2015), 2.34 (2006 to 2011), and 2.84 (2014-2017). With the SVTT, a cluster was identified with RR 0.11, an internal time trend of growth (+ 0.09%/year), and an external time trend of decrease (- 0.06%/year). Finally, three risk factors and three protective factors that are associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality were identified, being: race/brown color (OR: 1.26), without education (OR: 1.71), retired (OR: 1.35), 15 years or more of study (OR: 0.73), not having HIV (OR: 0.55) and not having diabetes (OR: 0.35). CONCLUSION: The importance of using spatial analysis tools in identifying areas that should be prioritized for TB control is highlighted, and greater attention is necessary for individuals who fit the profile indicated as "at risk" for the disease.

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BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis and is a public health problem worldwide. It is estimated that 90% of the patients diagnosed with TB live in vulnerable environments with limited health resources, such as individuals living in correctional facilities. This study aimed to identify the consumption of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs among prisoners diagnosed with TB and the spatial determinants and time trends of the phenomenon in southern Brazil. METHODS: A cross-sectional study using data from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System was carried out. TB cases confirmed from 2014 to 2018 in prisons located in Paraná, Brazil, were selected. The Prais-Winsten procedure was performed to identify time trends by calculating monthly rates and the percentage of monthly variation. The Seasonal-Trend by Loess decomposition method was used to verify the time series and trends. The spatial association was verified with the Getis-Ord Gi* technique, and the risk areas were identified using spatial scan statistics. RESULTS: A total of 1,099 TB cases were found in the studied population. The consumption of tobacco (n = 460; 41.9%), illegal drugs (n = 451; 41.0%), and alcohol (n = 179; 16.3%) stood out. An ascending trend was found for the consumption of alcohol (+ 19.4%/mo. (95%CI: 12.20-23.03)), tobacco (+ 20.2%/mo. (95%CI: 12.20-28.82)), and illegal drugs (+ 62.2%/mo. (95%CI: 44.54-81.97)). Spatial analysis revealed clusters for the use of alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drugs. CONCLUSIONS: This study advances knowledge presenting the burden of drug use and its typology among individuals diagnosed with TB in the prison system. There is a growing trend among patients to use drugs, especially illegal drugs. The clusters show differences between the places where the prisons are located.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of leprosy in a scenario of low endemicity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Ecological study with leprosy cases in Ribeirão Preto, between 2006 to 2016. The temporal trend of leprosy detection was verified through the decomposition of time series and identified areas of high and low occurrence of the disease using the Getis-Ord Gi* technique. RESULTS: There were 890 cases, and the detection rate showed an increasing trend in the period from 2011 to 2015, with an average growth of 1% per month. Areas of high occurrence of the disease were identified in the northern region of the city (99% and 95% confidence). CONCLUSION: The temporal analysis showed that the rate of detection of leprosy presented an increasing trend, and the spatial analysis showed that the region of the municipality with the highest occurrence of the disease is characterized by presenting the greatest social inequalities.

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BACKGROUND: After 40 years of its starting, the HIV epidemic in Brazilian Amazon region remains on an increasing trend. The young men who have sex with men (MSM) have been the most impacted by the HIV in the last decade. However, much more than attributing the risk behavior to HIV uniquely to the individual, behaviors are shaped by social determinants of health (SDH). Despite the problem, there is a scarcity of studies evaluating the impact of SDH on HIV among young MSM and none of them were done in the Northern of Brazil. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to analyse the HIV epidemic among Brazilian Amazonian young MSM using temporal trends and spatial analysis. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study using reported cases of HIV/AIDS in young MSM living in Pará, the second larger Brazilian Amazonian province, between 2007 and 2018. Data were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. For the temporal analysis, we employed a Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess Forecasting model (STLF), which is a hybrid time-series forecast model, that combines the Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting model with the Seasonal-Trend by Loess (STL) decomposition method. For the spatial analysis, Moran's spatial autocorrelation, spatial scan, and spatial regression techniques were used. RESULTS: A total of 2192 notifications were included in the study. Greater variabilities in HIV/AIDS population-level diagnosis rates were found in the festive months. The HIV/AIDS population-level diagnosis rates exhibited an upward trend from 2013 and this trend is forecasted to continue until 2022. Belém, the capital of Pará, presented the highest spatial risk for HIV/AIDS and was the only city to present spatiotemporal risk from 2014 to 2018. The geographic variation of the HIV epidemic was associated with the number of men with formal jobs, the average salary of men, and the percentage of people over 18 years old with elementary education. CONCLUSION: The upward trend of HIV/AIDS population-level diagnosis rate forecasted until 2022 and the variability of the epidemic promoted by the SDH brings an alert and subsidies to health authorities to implement more efficient and focalized public policies against HIV among young MSM in Pará.

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Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial e temporal da hanseníase em cenário de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, sobre casos de hanseníase notificados no município de Ribeirão Preto, entre 2006 e 2016. A tendência temporal da taxa de detecção de hanseníase foi verificada mediante decomposição de séries temporais, e identificadas as áreas de alta e de baixa ocorrência da doença utilizando-se a técnica Getis-Ord Gi*. Resultados: Foram registrados 890 casos, e a taxa de detecção apresentou uma tendência crescente no período analisado, com crescimento médio de 1% ao mês. Identificaram-se áreas de alta ocorrência da doença na região norte do município (99% e 95% de confiança). Conclusão: A taxa de detecção de hanseníase apresentou tendência temporal crescente, e a análise espacial permitiu visualizar que a região do município com maior ocorrência da doença se caracteriza por apresentar as maiores desigualdades sociais.

Objetivo: Analizar la distribución espacial y temporal de la lepra en un escenario de baja endemicidad en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudio ecológico con casos de lepra en Ribeirão Preto, entre 2006 y 2016. La tendencia temporal de la detección de la lepra se verificó a través de la descomposición de series de tiempo e identificaron áreas de alta y baja ocurrencia utilizando la técnica Getis-Ord Gi*. Resultados: Fueron 890 casos y la tasa de detección mostró una tendencia creciente en el período de 2011 a 2015, con un crecimiento promedio de 1% mensual. Se identificaron áreas de alta ocurrencia de la enfermedad en la región norte de la ciudad (99% y 95% de confianza). Conclusión: El análisis temporal mostró que la tasa de detección de lepra presentó una tendencia creciente y el análisis espacial mostró que la región de la ciudad con mayor ocurrencia de la enfermedad se caracteriza por presentar las mayores desigualdades sociales.

Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of leprosy in a scenario of low endemicity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Ecological study with leprosy cases in Ribeirão Preto, between 2006 to 2016. The temporal trend of leprosy detection was verified through the decomposition of time series and identified areas of high and low occurrence of the disease using the Getis-Ord Gi* technique. Results: There were 890 cases, and the detection rate showed an increasing trend in the period from 2011 to 2015, with an average growth of 1% per month. Areas of high occurrence of the disease were identified in the northern region of the city (99% and 95% confidence). Conclusion: The temporal analysis showed that the rate of detection of leprosy presented an increasing trend, and the spatial analysis showed that the region of the municipality with the highest occurrence of the disease is characterized by presenting the greatest social inequalities.

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