RESUMO
Health effects related to exposure to air pollution such as ozone (O3) have been documented. The World Health Organization has recommended the use of the Sum of O3 Means Over 35 ppb (SOMO35) to perform Health Impact Assessments (HIA) for long-term exposure to O3. We estimated the avoidable mortality associated with long-term exposure to tropospheric O3 in 14 cities in Mexico using information for 2015. The economic valuation of avoidable deaths related to SOMO35 exposure was performed using the willingness to pay (WTP) and human capital (HC) approaches. We estimated that 627 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 227-1051) from respiratory diseases associated with the exposure to O3 would have been avoided in people over 30 years in the study area, which confirms the public health impacts of ambient air pollution. The avoidable deaths account for almost 1400 million USD under the WTP approach, whilst the HC method yielded a lost productivity estimate of 29.7 million USD due to premature deaths. Our findings represent the first evidence of the health impacts of O3 exposure in Mexico, using SOMO35 metrics.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Ozônio , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/toxicidade , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Exposição Ambiental , Humanos , México/epidemiologia , Ozônio/análise , Ozônio/toxicidade , Material Particulado/análiseRESUMO
Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la elasticidad precio y la elasticidad ingreso de la demanda de cerveza en México. Material y métodos: Se utilizaron series mensuales de ventas y precios de cerveza de 2007 a 2019. Se estimó la elasticidad a largo plazo mediante un modelo de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO). La elasticidad en el corto plazo se estimó mediante un modelo de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios dinámicos (MCOD). Resultados: La elasticidad precio en el largo plazo fue de -1.40 (IC95%: -2.53 a -0.27) y -1.31 (IC95%: -2.46 a -0.15) en el corto plazo. La elasticidad ingreso de la demanda en el largo y en el corto plazo se estimó en 0.86 (IC95%: 0.44-1.29) y 0.93 (IC95%: 0.51-1.34), respectivamente. Conclusión: Los hallazgos de este estudio sugieren que las políticas fiscales pueden tener un impacto positivo en la salud de la población al reducir el consumo de cerveza.
Abstract: Objective: Estimate the price and income elasticities of the demand for beer in Mexico. Materials and methods: Monthly series on beer sales and prices from 2007 to 2019 were used. Long-term elasticity was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). Short-term elasticity was estimated using a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model. Results: The price elasticity was in the long term of -1.40 (95%CI: -2.53 to -0.27) and -1.31 (95%CI: -2.46 to -0.15) in the short term. The income elasticity of demand in the long and short term was estimated at 0.86 (95%CI: 0.44-1.29 and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.51-1.34), respectively. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that fiscal policies may have a positive impact on the health of the population by reducing beer consumption.
RESUMO
Objective: Estimate the price and income elasticities of the demand for beer in Mexico. Materials and methods: Monthly series on beer sales and prices from 2007 to 2019 were used. Long-term elasticity was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). Short-term elasticity was estimated using a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model. Results: The price elasticity was in the long term of -1.40 (95%CI: -2.53 to -0.27) and -1.31 (95%CI: -2.46 to -0.15) in the short term. The income elasticity of demand in the long and short term was estimated at 0.86 (95%CI: 0.44-1.29 and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.51-1.34), respectively. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that fiscal policies may have a positive impact on the health of the population by reducing beer consumption.
Assuntos
Cerveja , Impostos , Comércio , Elasticidade , Humanos , Renda , MéxicoRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To show lung cancer (LC) mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Mexico. MATERIALS AND METHODS: With the visualization tools at the Global Burden of Disease Study website, we analyzed LC mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by state, sex, socio- demographic index (SDI), age, and risk factors between 1990 and 2016. RESULTS: Mortality rate decreased from 13.9 to 9.1 per 100 000 between 1990 and 2016. This reduction is greater among men. However, deaths by LC rose from 5 478 to 8 470. DALYs rate also decreased. Northern states with higher SDI face a larger burden from LC but exhibited greater reductions compared with southern, less developed states. The burden of LC is concentrated among older population. Smoking is the main risk factor for LC. CONCLUSIONS: The burden by LC has decreased but is differential between states. LC threatens financially both the health system and individuals, since an important fraction of the population is not protected.
OBJETIVO: Mostrar la mortalidad y los años de vida saluda- bles (Avisas) perdidos por cáncer de pulmón (CP) en México. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Con la herramienta de visualización del estudio de la Carga Global de la Enfermedad, se analizó mortalidad y Avisas por CP según diferentes criterios entre 1990 y 2016. RESULTADOS: La tasa de mortalidad disminuyó de 13.9 a 9.1 por 100 000. Dicha reducción fue mayor entre hombres. Las muertes por CP crecieron de 5 478 a 8 470. La tasa de Avisas se redujo. La carga del CP se concentra en grupos de edad avanzada. Los estados del norte, con mayor nivel sociodemográfico, enfrentan mayor carga, pero presen- taron mayores reducciones comparados con estados menos desarrollados. Fumar es el principal factor de riesgo para CP. CONCLUSIONES: La carga por CP ha disminuido pero es diferencial entre estados. El CP amenaza financieramente el sistema de salud y la población, pues una fracción importante no está protegida.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Carga Global da Doença , Humanos , Masculino , México/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Fatores de Tempo , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Abstract: Objective: To show lung cancer (LC) mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Mexico. Materials and methods: With the visualization tools at the Global Burden of Disease Study website, we analyzed LC mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by state, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), age, and risk factors between 1990 and 2016. Results: Mortality rate decreased from 13.9 to 9.1 per 100 000 between 1990 and 2016. This reduction is greater among men. However, deaths by LC rose from 5 478 to 8 470. DALYs rate also decreased. Northern states with higher SDI face a larger burden from LC but exhibited greater reductions compared with southern, less developed states. The burden of LC is concentrated among older population. Smoking is the main risk factor for LC. Conclusions: The burden by LC has decreased but is differential between states. LC threatens financially both the health system and individuals, since an important fraction of the population is not protected.
Resumen: Objetivo: Mostrar la mortalidad y los años de vida saludables (Avisas) perdidos por cáncer de pulmón (CP) en México. Material y métodos: Con la herramienta de visualización del estudio de la Carga Global de la Enfermedad, se analizó mortalidad y Avisas por CP según diferentes criterios entre 1990 y 2016. Resultados: La tasa de mortalidad disminuyó de 13.9 a 9.1 por 100 000. Dicha reducción fue mayor entre hombres. Las muertes por CP crecieron de 5 478 a 8 470. La tasa de Avisas se redujo. La carga del CP se concentra en grupos de edad avanzada. Los estados del norte, con mayor nivel sociodemográfico, enfrentan mayor carga, pero presentaron mayores reducciones comparados con estados menos desarrollados. Fumar es el principal factor de riesgo para CP. Conclusiones: La carga por CP ha disminuido pero es diferencial entre estados. El CP amenaza financieramente el sistema de salud y la población, pues una fracción importante no está protegida.
Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adolescente , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Adulto Jovem , Neoplasias Pulmonares/mortalidade , Fatores de Tempo , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Carga Global da Doença , México/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Firearm mortality is a leading, and largely avoidable, cause of death in the USA, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia. We aimed to assess the changes over time and demographic determinants of firearm deaths in these four countries between 1990 and 2015. METHODS: In this comparative analysis of firearm mortality, we examined national vital statistics data from 1990-2015 from four publicly available data repositories in the USA, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia. We extracted medically-certified deaths and underlying population denominators to calculate the age-specific and sex-specific firearm deaths and the risk of firearm mortality at the national and subnational level, by education for all four countries, and by race or ethnicity for the USA and Brazil. Analyses were stratified by intent (homicide, suicide, unintentional, or undetermined). We quantified avoidable mortality for each country using the lowest number of subnational age-specific and period-specific death rates. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2015, 106·3 million medically-certified deaths were recorded, including 2â472â000 firearm deaths, of which 851â000 occurred in the USA, 272â000 in Mexico, 855â000 in Brazil, and 494â000 in Colombia. Homicides accounted for most of the firearm deaths in Mexico (225â000 [82·7%]), Colombia (463â000 [93·8%]), and Brazil (766â000 [89·5%]). Suicide accounted for more than half of all firearm deaths in the USA (479â000 [56·3%]). In each country, firearm mortality was highest among men aged 15-34 years, accounting for up to half of the total risk of death in that age group. During the study period, firearm mortality risks increased in Mexico and Brazil but decreased in the USA and Colombia, with marked national and subnational geographical variation. Young men with low educational attainment were at increased risk of firearm homicide in all four countries, and in the USA and Brazil, black and brown men, respectively, were at the highest risk. The risk of firearm homicide was 14 times higher in black men in the USA aged 25-34 years with low educational attainment than comparably-educated white men (1·52% [99% CI 1·50-1·54] vs 0·11% [0·10-0·12]), and up to four times higher than in comparably-educated men in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. In the USA, the risk of firearm homicide was more than 30 times higher in black men with post-secondary education than comparably educated white men. If countries could achieve the same firearm mortality rates nationally as in their lowest-burden states, 1â777â800 firearm deaths at all ages and in both sexes could be avoided, including 1â028â000 deaths in men aged 15-34 years. INTERPRETATION: Firearm mortality in the USA, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia is highest among young adult men, and is strongly associated with race and ethnicity, and low education levels. Reductions in firearm deaths would improve life expectancy, particularly for black men in the USA, and would reduce racial and educational disparities in mortality. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the University of Toronto Connaught Global Challenge.
Assuntos
Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Homicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupos Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Escolaridade , Feminino , Homicídio/etnologia , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , México/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Espacial , Suicídio/etnologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/etnologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To estimate avoidable mortality, potential years of life lost and economic costs associated with particulate matter PM2.5 exposure for 2 years (2013 and 2015) in Mexico using two scenarios of reduced concentrations (i.e., mean annual PM2.5 concentration < 12 µg/m3 and mean annual PM2.5 concentration < 10 µg/m3). METHODS: The health impact assessment method was followed. This method consists of: identification of health effects, selection of concentration-response functions, estimation of exposure, quantification of impacts quantification and economic assessment using the willingness to pay and human capital approaches. RESULTS: For 2013, we included data from 62 monitoring sites in ten cities, (113 municipalities) where 36,486,201 live. In 2015, we included 71 monitoring sites from fifteen cities (121 municipalities) and 40,479,629 inhabitants. It was observed that reduction in the annual PM2.5 average to 10 µg/would have prevented 14,666 deaths and 150,771 potential years of life lost in 2015, with estimated costs of 64,164 and 5434 million dollars, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing PM2.5 concentration in the Mexican cities studied would reduce mortality by all causes by 8.1%, representing important public health benefits.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/economia , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/economia , Avaliação do Impacto na Saúde/economia , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/economia , Cidades/economia , Cidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , México , Material Particulado/análiseRESUMO
Background: Mexicans and US Mexican Hispanics share modifiable determinants of premature mortality. We compared trends in mortality at ages 30-69 in Mexico and among US Mexican Hispanics from 1995 to 2015. Methods: We examined nationally representative statistics on 4.2 million Mexican and 0.7 million US deaths to examine cause-specific mortality. We used lung cancer indexed methods to estimate smoking-attributable deaths stratified by high and lower burden Mexican states. Results: In 1995-99, Mexican men had about 30% higher relative risk of death from all causes than US Mexican Hispanic men, and this difference nearly doubled to 58% by 2010-15. The divergence between Mexican and US Mexican Hispanic women over this time period was less marked. Among US Mexican Hispanics, declines in the risk of smoking-attributable death constituted about 25-30% of the declines in the overall risk of death. However, among Mexican men the declines in the risk of smoking-attributable deaths were offset by increases in causes of death not due to smoking. Homicide rates (mostly from guns) rose among men in Mexico from 2005 to 2010, but not among Mexican women or US Mexican Hispanic men or women. The probability at 30-69 years of death from cardiac disease diverged significantly between Mexicans and US Mexican Hispanics, reaching 10% and 5% for men, and 7% and 2% for women, respectively. Conclusions: Large differences in premature mortality between otherwise genetically and culturally similar groups arise from a few modifiable factors, most notably smoking, untreated diabetes and homicide.
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Causas de Morte/tendências , Americanos Mexicanos/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade Prematura/etnologia , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , México/etnologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Distribuição por Sexo , Análise de Sobrevida , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/etnologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE:: To identify factors associated with susceptibility, tobacco use and addiction in young people from 13 to 15 years of age, to determine conditions of risk and identify possible correlates to the development of public policies on smoking in Costa Rica. MATERIALS AND METHODS:: Information available from the four rounds of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) Costa Rica was used. It was based on a sample size of 11 540 youngsters from public and private schools. Indicators of interest and logistic regression models for smoking, susceptibility and addiction were estimated. RESULTS:: The prevalence of current consumption shows a significant decrease over the 14 years of the study (17.3% in 1999 and 5.0% in 2013) and, to a lesser intensity, in the index of smoking susceptibility (19.3% in 1999 and 12.4% in 2013). The proportion of young people with addiction has shown a significant increase in the same period. CONCLUSIONS:: The conditions that explained the significant reduction in smoking prevalence and less susceptibility must be maintained and deepened to achieve full compliance of the MPower measures.
Assuntos
Fumar/epidemiologia , Tabagismo/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Costa Rica/epidemiologia , Suscetibilidade a Doenças/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Resumen: Objetivo: Identificar elementos asociados con el tabaquismo, la susceptibilidad y la adicción en jóvenes de 13 a 15 años, para determinar condiciones de riesgo y posibles intervenciones desde las políticas sobre tabaco en Costa Rica. Material y métodos: Se utilizó información de las cuatro rondas de la Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) Costa Rica, con un tamaño muestral de 11 540 jóvenes colegiales. Se estimaron indicadores de interés y modelos de regresión logística para el consumo de tabaco, la susceptibilidad y la adicción. Resultados: La prevalencia de consumo actual disminuyó significativamente a lo largo de los 14 años del estudio (17.3% en 1999 y 5.0% en 2013) y también, aunque en menor intensidad, en el índice de susceptibilidad hacia el fumado (19.3% en 1999 y 12.4% en 2013). La proporción de jóvenes que presentan adicción ha mostrado un aumento importante en el mismo periodo. Conclusiones: Las condiciones que han favorecido la importante reducción en la prevalencia de consumo, y en menor medida de la susceptibilidad, deben mantenerse y profundizarse para lograr el cumplimiento pleno de las medidas del programa MPower.
Abstract: Objective: To identify factors associated with susceptibility, tobacco use and addiction in young people from 13 to 15 years of age, to determine conditions of risk and identify possible correlates to the development of public policies on smoking in Costa Rica. Materials and methods: Information available from the four rounds of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) Costa Rica was used. It was based on a sample size of 11 540 youngsters from public and private schools. Indicators of interest and logistic regression models for smoking, susceptibility and addiction were estimated. Results: The prevalence of current consumption shows a significant decrease over the 14 years of the study (17.3% in 1999 and 5.0% in 2013) and, to a lesser intensity, in the index of smoking susceptibility (19.3% in 1999 and 12.4% in 2013). The proportion of young people with addiction has shown a significant increase in the same period. Conclusions: The conditions that explained the significant reduction in smoking prevalence and less susceptibility must be maintained and deepened to achieve full compliance of the MPower measures.