RESUMO
Climate change might affect energy production and therefore the energy security of a country or region. This situation may impact renewable energy sources such as hydro power, leading to consequences on energy transition strategies. This might be critical in sensitive regions to climate change, one of them being the Caribe and northern South America. Since there are numerous energy systems based on sensitive technologies worldwide, it is necessary to introduce techniques to analyze the effects of climate change on different possible energy transition paths. The goal of this study is to develop and assess a method to analyze one of the most critical effects faced by climate change for societies worldwide: the sensitivity of the energy systems to climate change. This is especially critical in developing countries, in locations where temperatures will strongly increase in the following years. To assess this effect, this study proposes a vulnerability index (VI) to evaluate the vulnerability of an on-grid electricity system to climate change at the national and regional scales. This index was assessed using a Monte-Carlo method for uncertainty. The case of Colombia, a country with a system based on hydropower (> 70%) is used to illustrate the method. VI is based on variables related to climate change, the energy matrix, and vulnerability. Results show that the regions with the larger vulnerability correspond to the more energy-demanding ones. The VI for these regions is greater than 50% of the maximum possible vulnerability; meanwhile, the vulnerability of the whole country was estimated as 43%.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Eletricidade , Colômbia , Incerteza , América do SulRESUMO
This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal variations, and exceedances of the PM2.5 concentrations in Northwestern South America at different scales to assess the implemented policies and identify the involved phenomena. Through reanalysis and ground-based data, we found that high PM2.5 levels in most cities of the region are caused by wildfires and local emissions, including the capital cities of Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, and Panamá. In-situ measurements suggest that the majority of the cities comply with the local but not with the WHO guidelines, indicating that local annual limits should be more restrictive. Two peaks in the daily variations of PM2.5 (related to vehicle emissions) and also a steeper decrease around noon (associated with an increase in wind speed and in the boundary layer height) were identified. The trend-analysis shows that Bogotá and Medellín have a decreasing PM2.5 annual-trend (between -0.8µgm-3 and -1.7µgm-3) that corresponds to effective policies. In contrast, Cali has a positive annual-trend (0.8µgm-3) most likely because of Short-Range Transport produced by a northerly-flow from a highly polluted neighboring city, which also affects Cali's PM2.5 diurnal cycle, or by local-dynamics. The exceedances show that the policies are working on an annual but not at a daily time-scale. These results serve as a first input for additional studies, with the aim of gaining a better understanding of the contaminant before adapting current policies or implementing new policies and measures that need to include a joint international, regional, and inter-city efforts regarding pollution transport.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Material Particulado/análise , Emissões de Veículos/análise , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Cidades , Análise Espaço-Temporal , América do Sul , Políticas , ChinaRESUMO
The TransMilenio (TM) is a transport system. Twenty-year-old TM is a fast, highly efficient, and self-sufficient mode of passenger transport. This work aims to evaluate the effects of changing current TM diesel buses by electricity-powered buses (battery, wire-based), on the PM2.5 concentrations at surface level. Emissions calculations considering combustions and resuspension of TM and Non-TM were performed. A CFD model was implemented to estimate current PM2.5 concentrations at the roadside level, and the CFD results were validated using the statistic parameters: MB, RMSE, r, and IOA. Results from the emission calculations indicate that TM buses (30-50%) are one of the main sources of primary PM2.5 in all the considered urban sites in this study. Non-exhaust emissions from most vehicle categories were also identified as an important source of primary PM2.5 (40% of total emissions). The CFD model reproduced closely the trends and levels of PM2.5 concentrations measured at the roadside level in all the locations. Replacing TM diesel vehicles with electric vehicles reduces PM2.5 concentrations between 10 and 30% according to the CFD results obtained. Higher reductions can be achieved if policies are adopted to control other types of vehicles and non-exhaust emissions since they have a contribution of about 60%. Finally, this study shows that the combined use of emission calculations and advanced near-road dispersion models are useful tools to study and manage air quality in large cities.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , Colômbia , Eletricidade , Monitoramento Ambiental , Veículos Automotores , Material Particulado/análise , Emissões de Veículos/análiseRESUMO
Air quality modeling requires an accurate representation of meteorology, and in cities with complex topography, the performance of meteorological modeling can be improved by using an alternative global digital elevation model (GDEM) such as Alos-Palsar 0.4 s instead of the default elevation data. Bogotá is a city with complex topography geographically located over the Andes Mountains at 2600 m.a.s.l. A reliable meteorological simulation model is critical for performing a suitable air quality modeling in any case of study. Previous researches have been developed using the standard Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) topography (GTOPO 30 s). These studies have been developed with different configurations for the representation of meteorology. The aim of this study is to evaluate Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography with WRF, and two domain configurations with horizontal spatial resolutions up to 1000 m, to establish a reliable and accurate way to simulate the meteorology in the city of Bogotá. The evaluation quantitative parameters: IOA, r (Pearson), RMSE, MGE, and MB were calculated for the quantitative evaluation of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and solar radiation. An additional evaluation using Taylor diagrams was performed. Spatial differences were identified in the same locations as well the differences between the elevation from Alos-Palsar 0.4 s and GTOPO30. The results and evaluation suggest that simulations based on Alos-Palsar 0.4 s topography lead to a significant improvement in the meteorology representation by WRF in a region with complex topography such as Bogotá, Colombia.