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BACKGROUND: Transportation policies can impact health outcomes while simultaneously promoting social equity and environmental sustainability. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the impacts of fare subsidies and congestion taxes on commuter decision-making and travel patterns. We report effects on mode share, travel time and transport-related physical activity (PA), including the variability of effects by socioeconomic strata (SES), and the trade-offs that may need to be considered in the implementation of these policies in a context with high levels of necessity-based physical activity. METHODS: The ABM design was informed by local stakeholder engagement. The demographic and spatial characteristics of the in-silico city, and its residents, were informed by local surveys and empirical studies. We used ridership and travel time data from the 2019 Bogotá Household Travel Survey to calibrate and validate the model by SES. We then explored the impacts of fare subsidy and congestion tax policy scenarios. RESULTS: Our model reproduced commuting patterns observed in Bogotá, including substantial necessity-based walking for transportation. At the city-level, congestion taxes fractionally reduced car use, including among mid-to-high SES groups but not among low SES commuters. Neither travel times nor physical activity levels were impacted at the city level or by SES. Comparatively, fare subsidies promoted city-level public transportation (PT) ridership, particularly under a 'free-fare' scenario, largely through reductions in walking trips. 'Free fare' policies also led to a large reduction in very long walking times and an overall reduction in the commuting-based attainment of physical activity guidelines. Differential effects were observed by SES, with free fares promoting PT ridership primarily among low-and-middle SES groups. These shifts to PT reduced median walking times among all SES groups, particularly low-SES groups. Moreover, the proportion of low-to-mid SES commuters meeting weekly physical activity recommendations decreased under the 'freefare' policy, with no change observed among high-SES groups. CONCLUSIONS: Transport policies can differentially impact SES-level disparities in necessity-based walking and travel times. Understanding these impacts is critical in shaping transportation policies that balance the dual aims of reducing SES-level disparities in travel time (and time poverty) and the promotion of choice-based physical activity.

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BACKGROUND: Cable cars are part of the transport system in several cities in Latin America, but no evaluations of their effects on physical activity are available. TransMiCable is the first cable car in Bogotá, Colombia, and the wider intervention includes renovated parks and playgrounds. We assessed the effects of TransMiCable and the wider intervention on physical activity. METHODS: The Urban Transformations and Health natural experiment was a prospective quasi-experimental study conducted from Feb 1, 2018, to Dec 18, 2018 (baseline, pre-intervention) and from July 2, 2019, to March 15, 2020 (post-intervention follow-up) in the TransMiCable intervention area (Ciudad Bolívar settlement) and a control area without TransMiCable (San Cristóbal settlement). A multistage strategy was used to sample households in each area, with one adult (aged ≥18 years) per household invited to participate. Eligible participants had lived in the intervention or control areas for at least 2 years and were not planning to move within the next 2 years. Physical activity was assessed among participants in the intervention and control areas before and after the inauguration of TransMiCable in Ciudad Bolívar with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (long form) and with wearable accelerometers. Complete cases (those with baseline and follow-up data) were included in analyses. Respondents were classed as being physically active if they met 2020 WHO guidelines (≥150 min per week of moderate activity, ≥75 min per week of vigorous activity, or equivalent combinations); and accelerometery data were classified with the Freedson cut-points for adults. Data were also gathered in zonal parks (area ≥10 000 m2) and neighbourhood parks (area <10 000 m2) in the intervention and control areas by direct observation with the System for Observing Play and Recreation in Communities, to assess levels of physical activity before and after the TransMiCable intervention. Multilevel regression models were used to assess changes in physical activity associated with the TransMiCable intervention. FINDINGS: Physical activity questionnaires were completed by 2052 adult participants (1289 [62·8%] women and 763 [37·2%] men; mean age 43·5 years [SD 17·7]) before the inauguration of TransMiCable. After the inauguration, the follow-up (final) questionnaire sample comprised 825 adults in the intervention group and 854 in the control group, including 357 adults in the intervention group and 334 in the control group with valid accelerometery data. 334 (40·5%) of 825 participants in the intervention group reported levels of physical activity that met the 2020 WHO guidelines during walking for transport before the intervention, and 426 (51·6%) afterwards (change 11·1 percentage points [95% CI 6·4 to 15·9]). A similar change was observed in the control group (change 8·0 percentage points [3·4 to 12·5]; adjusted odds ratio [OR] for the time-by-group interaction, intervention vs control group: 1·1 [95% CI 0·8 to 1·5], p=0·38). Time spent doing moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, measured with accelerometers, did not change in the intervention group after the inauguration of TransMiCable (change -0·8 min per day [-4·6 to 3·0]) and did not change compared with the control group (adjusted ß for the time-by-group interaction: 1·4 min per day [95% CI -2·0 to 4·9], p=0·41). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was 52·1 min per day (SD 24·7) before and 59·4 min per day (35·2) after the inauguration of TransMiCable in new regular users who reported using TransMiCable during mandatory trips for work or education (n=32; change 7·3 min per day [-22·5 to 7·9]). After the intervention, an increase in the proportion of male individuals engaging in moderate or vigorous physical activity was observed in a renovated zonal park (adjusted OR for the time-by-group interaction, intervention vs control park: 2·7 [1·1 to 6·8], p=0·033). Female users of a renovated neighbourhood park were less likely to become engaged in moderate or vigorous physical activity than female users of the control area neighbourhood park (adjusted OR for the time-by-group interaction: 0·4 [0·1 to 0·6], p=0·019). INTERPRETATION: It is encouraging that walking for transport remained high in the TransMiCable intervention area when the use of private motorised transport had increased elsewhere in Bogotá. In low-income urban areas, where transport-related walking is a necessity, transport interventions should be focused on efforts to maintain participation in active travel while improving conditions under which it occurs. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (as part of the Urban Health in Latin America project); Bogotá Urban Planning Department; Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation of Colombia; Universidad de Los Andes; Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá; and Universidad del Norte. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

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Cable cars are a viable alternative to improve citizens' accessibility in zones with limitations on urban public transport supply due to the topography. In Latin America, such systems have recently been implemented in zones with high levels of poverty and vulnerability. Although the social implications of their implementation are relevant, individual expectations of these systems and how current changes in travel conditions and quality of life are perceived have not been widely reported in the literature. This paper aims to evaluate users' expectations and perceptions of a new cable car in the southern periphery of Bogotá (Colombia). We conducted a panel survey before (n = 341) and after (n = 301) the cable car started operations to evaluate the ranking of preferences toward a set of possible benefits of the project. We estimated discrete choice models to analyze the statistical differences between the expectations and perceptions before and after changes. Results suggest that travel time reductions, comfort improvements, and in-vehicle security are the benefits most valued by the users. Even though the project meets expectations of these aspects, it seems to fall short in expectations of reductions of pollution. Individuals' experience with the cable car shapes their perceptions of the system. We found that perceptions differ between those who have used the service at least once and those who never did. Policy implications derived from this study might be of interest to decision-makers seeking to guarantee the public acceptability of urban projects.

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The built environment of cities is complex and influences social and environmental determinants of health. In this study we, 1) identified city profiles based on the built landscape and street design characteristics of cities in Latin America and 2) evaluated the associations of city profiles with social determinants of health and air pollution. Landscape and street design profiles of 370 cities were identified using finite mixture modeling. For landscape, we measured fragmentation, isolation, and shape. For street design, we measured street connectivity, street length, and directness. We fitted a two-level linear mixed model to assess the association of social and environmental determinants of health with the profiles. We identified four profiles for landscape and four for the street design domain. The most common landscape profile was the "proximate stones" characterized by moderate fragmentation, isolation and patch size, and irregular shape. The most common street design profile was the "semi-hyperbolic grid" characterized by moderate connectivity, street length, and directness. The "semi-hyperbolic grid", "spiderweb" and "hyperbolic grid" profiles were positively associated with higher access to piped water and less overcrowding. The "semi-hyperbolic grid" and "spiderweb" profiles were associated with higher air pollution. The "proximate stones" and "proximate inkblots" profiles were associated with higher congestion. In conclusion, there is substantial heterogeneity in the urban landscape and street design profiles of Latin American cities. While we did not find a specific built environment profile that was consistently associated with lower air pollution and better social conditions, the different configurations of the built environments of cities should be considered when planning healthy and sustainable cities in Latin America.

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There is limited evidence on the gender differences and location-specific built-environment factors associated with bicycling in Latin American cities. This study aimed to assess commuting in Bogotá by (1) analyzing the gender-specific trend of the standardized number of bicycle commuters during 2005-2017; and (2) assessing the socio-demographic, community, built-environment and natural factors associated with bicycle commuting stratified by gender. This secondary-data analysis included data from the Household Travel Surveys and Multipurpose Surveys to calculate the number of bicycle commuters per habitant from 2005 to 2017 by gender. We assessed the socio-demographic and built-environment factors fitting generalized additive models stratified by gender using the 2015 Household Travel Survey. Although both women and men increased the standardized number of bicycle commuters, male commuters show a steeper trend than women, evidencing the widening gender gap in bicycle commuting over time. Bicycle commuting was negatively associated with household motor vehicle ownership, steeper terrain slope, longer commute distance, and scarce low-stress roads at trip origin and route. Among women, the availability of bike paths at the trip destination was positively associated with bicycling, while age and being a student were negatively associated with bicycling. Among men, living in areas with the lowest socio-economic status was positively associated with bicycling, while having a driver's license and living close to bus rapid transit stations were negatively associated with bicycling. In conclusion, bicycle and transport infrastructure play different roles in commuting by bicycle by gender and trip stages (origin - route - destination).

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OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis of available randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to compare cardiovascular outcomes involving stenting techniques in coronary bifurcation lesions. BACKGROUND: Although provisional stenting of the main branch and balloon angioplasty of the side branch is considered the standard approach, the use of two stents is often pursued with a wide variety of bifurcation stenting techniques available. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Clinicaltrials.gov from inception to December 2018. We performed a frequentist network meta-analysis to estimate relative risks (RR) of death, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), target vessel revascularization (TVR), target lesion revascularization (TLR), and stent thrombosis (ST) among different two stent bifurcation techniques. RESULTS: We identified 14 studies, yielding data on 4,285 patients. Double Kissing (DK) Crush and Mini-crush were associated with significant reductions in MACE, TVR, and TLR when compared with the Provisional stenting (RR 0.31-0.55 [all p < .01] and RR 0.42-0.45 [all p < .02], respectively) and with the remaining bifurcation techniques (RR 0.44-0.55 [all p < .05] for DK Crush and RR 0.37-0.45 [all p < .05] for Mini-crush). In addition, Culotte and Crush were associated with an increased risk for ST compared to Provisional stenting (RR 3.25-4.27 [both p < .05]) and to DK crush (RR 3.02-3.99 [both p < .05]). CONCLUSIONS: DK crush and mini-crush were found to be associated with fewer events and complications compared to the other techniques reviewed, including the Provisional approach. Further, Culotte and Crush were associated with an increased risk of stent thrombosis when compared to the Provisional approach.

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Background: It is unknown whether an initial invasive strategy in patients with stable ischemic heart disease and at least moderate ischemia improves outcomes in patients with a history of heart failure (HF) or left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) when EF >35%, but <45%. Methods: Among 5179 participants randomized into the International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches (ISCHEMIA), all of whom had LVEF >35%, we compared cardiovascular outcomes by treatment strategy in those with a history of HF or LV dysfunction (HF/LVD) at baseline versus those without HF/LVD. Median follow up was 3.2 years. Results: There were 398 (7.7%) participants with HF/LVD at baseline of whom 177 had HF/LVEF>45%, 28 had HF/LVEF 35-45% and 193 had LVEF 35-45% but no prior history of HF. HF/LVD was associated with more comorbidities at baseline, particularly prior myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and hypertension. Compared to those without HF/LVD, those with HF/LVD were more likely to experience a primary outcome composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal MI, or hospitalization for unstable angina, HF, or resuscitated cardiac arrest; four-year cumulative incidence rate (22.7% vs. 13.8%), cardiovascular death or MI (19.7% vs. 12.3%), and all-cause death or HF (15.0% vs. 6.9%). Those with HF/LVD randomized to the invasive versus conservative strategy had a lower rate of the primary outcome (17.2% vs. 29.3%, difference in 4- year event rate -12.1%; 95% CI: -22.6, -1.6%), whereas those without HF/LVD did not (13.0% vs. 14.6%, difference in 4-year event rate -1.6%; 95% CI: -3.8%, 0.7%; p-interaction = 0.055). A similar differential effect was seen for the primary outcome, all-cause mortality, and CV mortality when invasive versus conservative strategy associated outcomes were analyzed with LVEF as a continuous variable for those with and without prior HF. Conclusions: ISCHEMIA trial participants with stable ischemic heart disease and at least moderate ischemia with a history of HF or LVD were at increased risk for the primary outcome. In the small, high-risk subgroup with HF and LVEF 35-45%, an initial invasive approach was associated with a better event-free survival. This result should be considered hypothesis generating.

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The Level of Traffic Stress (LTS) is an indicator that quantifies the stress experienced by a cyclist on the segments of a road network. We propose an LTS-based classification with two components: a clustering component and an interpretative component. Our methodology is comprised of four steps: (i) compilation of a set of variables for road segments, (ii) generation of clusters of segments within a subset of the road network, (iii) classification of all segments of the road network into these clusters using a predictive model, and (iv) assignment of an LTS category to each cluster. At the core of the methodology, we couple a classifier (unsupervised clustering algorithm) with a predictive model (multinomial logistic regression) to make our approach scalable to massive data sets. Our methodology is a useful tool for policy-making, as it identifies suitable areas for interventions; and can estimate their impact on the LTS classification, according to probable changes to the input variables (e.g., traffic density). We applied our methodology on the road network of Bogotá, Colombia, a city with a history of implementing innovative policies to promote biking. To classify road segments, we combined government data with open-access repositories using geographic information systems (GIS). Comparing our LTS classification with city reports, we found that the number of bicyclists' fatal and non-fatal collisions per kilometer is positively correlated with higher LTS. Finally, to support policy making, we developed a web-enabled dashboard to visualize and analyze the LTS classification and its underlying variables.

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OBJECTIVE: In Bogotá, Colombia, motorcyclists represent a concern as the proportion of motorcycle users between 2013 and 2018 has increased from 18% to 35%. Despite available risk reduction strategies, the fatality rates are also growing, notably in young adults (15-29 years old). This study aims at identifying correct helmet use patterns and its relationship with official records of injuries and casualties in the city over time. METHODS: Between 2015 and 2018, semiannual observational studies of motorcycle users in six randomly selected sites in Bogotá were conducted. Data was collected and analyzed on the number of occupants per vehicle (driver and passengers), gender, approximate age, type of helmet, and whether it was correctly used (strapped) or not. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the determinants of correct helmet use. Additionally, a spatial analysis was conducted to estimate the relationship between motorcycle's casualties and correct use of the helmet (full-face helmet use) prevalence. RESULTS: A total of 77,932 motorcycles were observed, showing a high prevalence of helmet use (99% for drivers and passengers), but only 88% use it correctly (89% drivers and 82% passengers). The presence of enforcement (camera or police personnel) increases the correct use of the helmet, especially in principal roads. Female, adults, and single riders are more likely to correctly wear the helmet. Finally, there is a relationship between the concentration of the fatalities and the incorrect helmet use in 80% of the observational sites. CONCLUSIONS: Incorrect helmet use has been found by the study to be related to higher mortality among motorcycle occupants in Bogotá. Our data shows that enforcement increases correct helmet use with the potential to reduce deaths among motorcycle occupants.

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Background: Cable cars provide urban mobility benefits for vulnerable populations. However, no evaluation has assessed cable cars' impact from a health perspective. TransMiCable in Bogotá, Colombia, provides a unique opportunity to (1) assess the effects of its implementation on the environmental and social determinants of health (microenvironment pollution, transport accessibility, physical environment, employment, social capital, and leisure time), physical activity, and health outcomes (health-related quality of life, respiratory diseases, and homicides); and (2) use citizen science methods to identify, prioritize, and communicate the most salient negative and positive features impacting health and quality of life in TransMiCable's area, as well as facilitate a consensus and advocacy-building change process among community members, policymakers, and academic researchers. Methods: TrUST (In Spanish: Transformaciones Urbanas y Salud: el caso de TransMiCable en Bogotá) is a quasi-experimental study using a mixed-methods approach. The intervention group includes adults from Ciudad Bolívar, the area of influence of TransMiCable. The control group includes adults from San Cristóbal, an area of future expansion for TransMiCable. A conceptual framework was developed through group-model building. Outcomes related to environmental and social determinants of health as well as health outcomes are assessed using questionnaires (health outcomes, physical activity, and perceptions), secondary data (crime and respiratory outcomes) use of portable devices (air pollution exposure and accelerometry), mobility tracking apps (for transport trajectories), and direct observation (parks). The Stanford Healthy Neighborhood Discovery Tool is being used to capture residents' perceptions of their physical and social environments as part of the citizen science component of the investigation. Discussion: TrUST is innovative in its use of a mixed-methods, and interdisciplinary research approach, and in its systematic engagement of citizens and policymakers throughout the design and evaluation process. This study will help to understand better how to maximize health benefits and minimize unintended negative consequences of TransMiCable.

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