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OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the predictors of survival among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who underwent tracheal intubation, as part of a hospital cohort study. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study in the Rio do Sul County Hospital, Santa Catarina, Brazil, from April 2020 to May 2021, focused on patients aged 18 years or older intubated for coronavirus disease 2019. We assessed the 90-day survival of intubated patients by estimating the hazard ratio using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The study included 132 participants, with an average age of approximately 60 years. Tracheal intubation was successfully accomplished in 97% of cases within two attempts. The overall mortality rate was 62.9%. Notably, mortality rates were significantly higher in patients aged over 60 years (hazard ratio=2.57; 95%CI 1.54-4.29; p<0.001), those with blood oxygen saturation below 85% (hazard ratio=1.92; 95%CI 1.03-3.57; p=0.04), instances where tracheal intubation was carried out using a conventional laryngoscope (hazard ratio=2.59; 95%CI 1.22-5.48; p=0.013), and when performed by emergency physicians (hazard ratio=3.96; 95%CI 1.51-10.4; p=0.005). CONCLUSION: Our analysis unveiled that the risk of death in intubated coronavirus disease 2019 patients is four times higher when an emergency physician, as opposed to an anesthesiologist, leads the tracheal intubation team.

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Introduction: In the WHO eligibility criteria, there is agreement that hypertensive women taking Oral Contraceptive Hormonal Combined (OCHC) may be at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. The risk-to-benefit ratio hinges on the severity of the condition. While a mild increase in blood pressure is a common occurrence in consumers of OCHC, the potential for developing high blood pressure exists during oral contraceptive use. Consequently, there is a possibility of increased cardiovascular risk, with limited available data on this issue. Objective: To evaluate the potential effects of OCHC on blood pressure through a systematic review with statistical analysis of existing randomized controlled trials. Method: This systematic review with statistical comparison adheres to the recommendations outlined in the PRISMA (Principal Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) guidelines. The analysis strategy involves comparing the mean difference in blood pressure change according to the type of treatment, in addition to the calculation of clinically relevant outcomes (CRO). Results: Our findings suggest a clinically relevant outcome related to the increase in blood pressure in users of ethinyl estradiol combined with gestodene in a cyclic regimen over 6 months. Conversely, a decrease in blood pressure was observed among users of ethinyl estradiol combined with chlormadinone over 24 months of usage. Conclusion: While our study found minor variations in blood pressure across varying forms of oral contraceptives, these differences are not significant enough to warrant specific clinical recommendations. However, the results suggest that individuals with hypertension should exercise caution with ethinyl estradiol, particularly when administered cyclically alongside gestodene, due to the potential risk of increased blood pressure. Additionally, the use of oral contraceptives containing ethinyl estradiol paired with chlormadinone acetate or ethinyl estradiol combined with drospirenone may be more suitable for individuals at a high risk of developing hypertension.

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The Guiana Shield, a small region of South America, is currently one of the main hotspots of malaria transmission on the continent. This Amazonian area is characterised by remarkable socioeconomic, cultural, health, and political heterogeneity and a high degree of regional and cross-border population mobility, which has contributed to the increase of malaria in the region in the past few years. In this context, regional cooperation to control malaria represents both a challenge and an indispensable initiative. This Viewpoint advocates for the creation of a regional cooperative mechanism for the elimination of malaria in the Guiana Shield. This strategy would help address operational and political obstacles to successful technical cooperation in the region and could contribute to reversing the regional upsurge in malaria incidence through creating a functional international control and elimination partnership.

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Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of chronic Chagas disease (CCD) in Brazil: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Methods: A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to extract data on the prevalence of CCD in municipalities in Brazil in the 2010-2022 period: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Municipal-level CCD indicators available in health information systems were selected. Statistical modeling of the data extracted from the meta-analysis (based on data obtained from information systems) was applied to linear, generalized linear, and additive models. Results: The five most appropriate models were selected from a total of 549 models tested to obtain a consensus model (adjusted R2 = 54%). The most important predictor was self-reported CCD in the primary health care information system. Zero prevalence was estimated in 1 792 (32%) of Brazil's 5 570 municipalities; in the remaining 3 778 municipalities, average prevalence of the disease was estimated at 3.25% (± 2.9%). The number of carriers of CCD was estimated for the Brazilian population (~3.7 million), for women (~2.1 million) and for women of childbearing age (~590 000). The disease reproduction rate was calculated at 1.0336. All estimates refer to the 2015-2016 period. Conclusions: The estimated prevalence of CCD, especially among women of childbearing age, highlights the challenge of vertical transmission in Brazilian municipalities. Mathematical projections suggest that these estimates should be included in the national program for the elimination of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil. Métodos: Se realizó un metanálisis de la bibliografía para extraer datos sobre la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil, en los municipios de Brasil durante el período 2010-2022. Se seleccionaron los indicadores relacionados con esa enfermedad disponibles en los sistemas municipales de información de salud. La modelización estadística de los datos extraídos del metanálisis, en función de los obtenidos de los sistemas de información, se aplicó a modelos lineales, lineales generalizados y aditivos. Resultados: Se seleccionaron los cinco modelos más apropiados de un total de 549 modelos evaluados, para obtener un modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). El factor predictor más importante fue el registro de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica autodeclarada en el sistema de información de atención primaria de salud. De los 5570 municipios brasileños, en 1792 (32%) la prevalencia estimada fue nula y en los 3778 restantes la prevalencia media fue del 3,25% (± 2,9%). El número estimado de pacientes con enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil fue de ~3,7 millones, ~2,1 millones y ~590 000, respectivamente. La tasa calculada de reproducción de la enfermedad fue de 1,0336. Todas las estimaciones se refieren al período 2015-2016. Conclusiones: La prevalencia estimada de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, especialmente en las mujeres en edad fértil, pone de manifiesto el desafío que representa la transmisión vertical en los municipios brasileños. Estas estimaciones están en línea con los patrones de las proyecciones matemáticas, y sugieren la necesidad de incorporarlas al Pacto Nacional para la Eliminación de la Transmisión Vertical de la Enfermedad de Chagas.

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[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Este estudo teve como objetivo estimar a prevalência da doença de Chagas (DC) crônica (DCC) na população brasileira, em mulheres e em mulheres em idade fértil. Métodos. Foi realizada uma metanálise da literatura para extrair dados de prevalência de DCC na população brasileira, em mulheres e em mulheres em idade fértil, em municípios do Brasil, no período 2010–2022. Indi- cadores relacionados com a DCC disponíveis nos sistemas de informação em saúde foram selecionados em escala municipal. A modelagem estatística dos dados extraídos da metanálise em função daqueles obtidos dos sistemas de informação foi aplicada a modelos lineares, lineares generalizados e aditivos. Resultados. Foram selecionados os cinco modelos mais adequados de um total de 549 modelos testados para obtenção de um modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). O preditor mais importante foi o cadastro autorreferido de DCC do sistema de informação da Atenção Primária à Saúde. Dos 5 570 munícipios brasi- leiros, a prevalência foi estimada como zero em 1 792 (32%); nos 3 778 municípios restantes, a prevalência média da doença foi estimada em 3,25% (± 2,9%). O número de portadores de DCC foi estimado na popu- lação brasileira (~3,7 milhões), mulheres (~2,1 milhões) e mulheres em idade fértil (~590 mil). A taxa de reprodução da doença foi calculada em 1,0336. Todas as estimativas se referem ao intervalo 2015–2016. Conclusões. As prevalências estimadas de DCC, especialmente entre mulheres em idade fértil, evidenciam o desafio da transmissão vertical em municípios brasileiros. Estas estimativas são comparadas aos padrões de projeções matemáticas, sugerindo sua incorporação ao Pacto Nacional para a Eliminação da Transmissão Vertical da DC.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of chronic Chagas disease (CCD) in Brazil: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Methods. A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to extract data on the prevalence of CCD in munici- palities in Brazil in the 2010–2022 period: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Municipal-level CCD indicators available in health information systems were selected. Statistical mode- ling of the data extracted from the meta-analysis (based on data obtained from information systems) was applied to linear, generalized linear, and additive models. Results. The five most appropriate models were selected from a total of 549 models tested to obtain a con- sensus model (adjusted R2 = 54%). The most important predictor was self-reported CCD in the primary health care information system. Zero prevalence was estimated in 1 792 (32%) of Brazil’s 5 570 municipalities; in the remaining 3 778 municipalities, average prevalence of the disease was estimated at 3.25% (± 2.9%). The number of carriers of CCD was estimated for the Brazilian population (~3.7 million), for women (~2.1 million) and for women of childbearing age (~590 000). The disease reproduction rate was calculated at 1.0336. All estimates refer to the 2015–2016 period. Conclusions. The estimated prevalence of CCD, especially among women of childbearing age, highlights the challenge of vertical transmission in Brazilian municipalities. Mathematical projections suggest that these estimates should be included in the national program for the elimination of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil. Métodos. Se realizó un metanálisis de la bibliografía para extraer datos sobre la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil, en los municipios de Brasil durante el período 2010-2022. Se seleccionaron los indicadores relacionados con esa enfermedad disponibles en los sistemas municipales de información de salud. La modelización estadística de los datos extraídos del metanálisis, en función de los obtenidos de los sistemas de información, se aplicó a modelos lineales, lineales generalizados y aditivos. Resultados. Se seleccionaron los cinco modelos más apropiados de un total de 549 modelos evaluados, para obtener un modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). El factor predictor más importante fue el registro de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica autodeclarada en el sistema de información de atención primaria de salud. De los 5570 municipios brasileños, en 1792 (32%) la prevalencia estimada fue nula y en los 3778 restantes la prevalencia media fue del 3,25% (± 2,9%). El número estimado de pacientes con enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil fue de ~3,7 millo- nes, ~2,1 millones y ~590 000, respectivamente. La tasa calculada de reproducción de la enfermedad fue de 1,0336. Todas las estimaciones se refieren al período 2015-2016. Conclusiones. La prevalencia estimada de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, especialmente en las mujeres en edad fértil, pone de manifiesto el desafío que representa la transmisión vertical en los municipios brasi- leños. Estas estimaciones están en línea con los patrones de las proyecciones matemáticas, y sugieren la necesidad de incorporarlas al Pacto Nacional para la Eliminación de la Transmisión Vertical de la Enfermedad de Chagas.

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SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the predictors of survival among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who underwent tracheal intubation, as part of a hospital cohort study. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study in the Rio do Sul County Hospital, Santa Catarina, Brazil, from April 2020 to May 2021, focused on patients aged 18 years or older intubated for coronavirus disease 2019. We assessed the 90-day survival of intubated patients by estimating the hazard ratio using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The study included 132 participants, with an average age of approximately 60 years. Tracheal intubation was successfully accomplished in 97% of cases within two attempts. The overall mortality rate was 62.9%. Notably, mortality rates were significantly higher in patients aged over 60 years (hazard ratio=2.57; 95%CI 1.54-4.29; p<0.001), those with blood oxygen saturation below 85% (hazard ratio=1.92; 95%CI 1.03-3.57; p=0.04), instances where tracheal intubation was carried out using a conventional laryngoscope (hazard ratio=2.59; 95%CI 1.22-5.48; p=0.013), and when performed by emergency physicians (hazard ratio=3.96; 95%CI 1.51-10.4; p=0.005). CONCLUSION: Our analysis unveiled that the risk of death in intubated coronavirus disease 2019 patients is four times higher when an emergency physician, as opposed to an anesthesiologist, leads the tracheal intubation team.

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Resumo Objetivo. Este estudo teve como objetivo estimar a prevalência da doença de Chagas (DC) crônica (DCC) na população brasileira, em mulheres e em mulheres em idade fértil. Métodos. Foi realizada uma metanálise da literatura para extrair dados de prevalência de DCC na população brasileira, em mulheres e em mulheres em idade fértil, em municípios do Brasil, no período 2010-2022. Indicadores relacionados com a DCC disponíveis nos sistemas de informação em saúde foram selecionados em escala municipal. A modelagem estatística dos dados extraídos da metanálise em função daqueles obtidos dos sistemas de informação foi aplicada a modelos lineares, lineares generalizados e aditivos. Resultados. Foram selecionados os cinco modelos mais adequados de um total de 549 modelos testados para obtenção de um modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). O preditor mais importante foi o cadastro autorreferido de DCC do sistema de informação da Atenção Primária à Saúde. Dos 5 570 munícipios brasileiros, a prevalência foi estimada como zero em 1 792 (32%); nos 3 778 municípios restantes, a prevalência média da doença foi estimada em 3,25% (± 2,9%). O número de portadores de DCC foi estimado na população brasileira (~3,7 milhões), mulheres (~2,1 milhões) e mulheres em idade fértil (~590 mil). A taxa de reprodução da doença foi calculada em 1,0336. Todas as estimativas se referem ao intervalo 2015-2016. Conclusões. As prevalências estimadas de DCC, especialmente entre mulheres em idade fértil, evidenciam o desafio da transmissão vertical em municípios brasileiros. Estas estimativas são comparadas aos padrões de projeções matemáticas, sugerindo sua incorporação ao Pacto Nacional para a Eliminação da Transmissão Vertical da DC.

ABSTRACT Objective. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of chronic Chagas disease (CCD) in Brazil: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Methods. A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to extract data on the prevalence of CCD in municipalities in Brazil in the 2010-2022 period: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Municipal-level CCD indicators available in health information systems were selected. Statistical modeling of the data extracted from the meta-analysis (based on data obtained from information systems) was applied to linear, generalized linear, and additive models. Results. The five most appropriate models were selected from a total of 549 models tested to obtain a consensus model (adjusted R2 = 54%). The most important predictor was self-reported CCD in the primary health care information system. Zero prevalence was estimated in 1 792 (32%) of Brazil's 5 570 municipalities; in the remaining 3 778 municipalities, average prevalence of the disease was estimated at 3.25% (± 2.9%). The number of carriers of CCD was estimated for the Brazilian population (~3.7 million), for women (~2.1 million) and for women of childbearing age (~590 000). The disease reproduction rate was calculated at 1.0336. All estimates refer to the 2015-2016 period. Conclusions. The estimated prevalence of CCD, especially among women of childbearing age, highlights the challenge of vertical transmission in Brazilian municipalities. Mathematical projections suggest that these estimates should be included in the national program for the elimination of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

Resumen Objetivo. El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil. Métodos. Se realizó un metanálisis de la bibliografía para extraer datos sobre la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil, en los municipios de Brasil durante el período 2010-2022. Se seleccionaron los indicadores relacionados con esa enfermedad disponibles en los sistemas municipales de información de salud. La modelización estadística de los datos extraídos del metanálisis, en función de los obtenidos de los sistemas de información, se aplicó a modelos lineales, lineales generalizados y aditivos. Resultados. Se seleccionaron los cinco modelos más apropiados de un total de 549 modelos evaluados, para obtener un modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). El factor predictor más importante fue el registro de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica autodeclarada en el sistema de información de atención primaria de salud. De los 5570 municipios brasileños, en 1792 (32%) la prevalencia estimada fue nula y en los 3778 restantes la prevalencia media fue del 3,25% (± 2,9%). El número estimado de pacientes con enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil fue de ~3,7 millones, ~2,1 millones y ~590 000, respectivamente. La tasa calculada de reproducción de la enfermedad fue de 1,0336. Todas las estimaciones se refieren al período 2015-2016. Conclusiones. La prevalencia estimada de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, especialmente en las mujeres en edad fértil, pone de manifiesto el desafío que representa la transmisión vertical en los municipios brasileños. Estas estimaciones están en línea con los patrones de las proyecciones matemáticas, y sugieren la necesidad de incorporarlas al Pacto Nacional para la Eliminación de la Transmisión Vertical de la Enfermedad de Chagas.

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The intense process of deforestation in tropical forests poses serious challenges for the survival of biodiversity, as well as for the human species itself. This scenario is supported by the increase in the incidence of epidemics of zoonotic origin observed over the last few decades. In the specific case of sylvatic yellow fever (YF), it has already been shown that an increase in the transmission risk of the causative agent (yellow fever virus - YFV) is associated with areas with a high degree of forest fragmentation, which can facilitate the spread of the virus. In this study we tested the hypothesis that areas with more fragmented landscapes and a higher edge density (ED) but a high degree of connectivity between forest patches favor YFV spread. To this end, we used YF epizootics in non-human primates (NHPs) in the state of São Paulo to build direct networks, and used a multi-selection approach to analyze which landscape features could facilitate YFV spread. Our results showed that municipalities with the potential to spread the virus exhibited a higher amount of forest edge. Additionally, the models with greater empirical support showed a strong association between forest edge density and the risk of occurrence of epizootic diseases, as well as the need for a minimum threshold of native vegetation cover to restrict their transmission. These findings corroborate our hypothesis that more fragmented landscapes with a higher degree of connectivity favor the spread of YFV, while landscapes with fewer connections tend to act as dead zones for the circulation of the virus.

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BACKGROUND: Since 2015, the Global Technical Strategy (GTS) for Malaria 2016-2030 has been adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a comprehensive framework to accelerate progress for malaria elimination in endemic countries. This strategy sets the target of reducing global malaria incidence and mortality rates by 90% in 2030. Here it is sought to evaluate Brazil's achievements towards reaching the WHO GTS milestone in 2030. Considering the total number of new malaria cases in 2015, the main research question is: will Brazil reach the malaria elimination goal in 2030? METHODS: Analytical strategies were undertaken using the SIVEP-malaria official databases of the Brazilian Malaria Control Programme for the Brazilian Amazon region from 2009 to 2020. Spatial and time-series analyses were applied for identifying municipalities that support the highest numbers of malaria cases over the years. Forecast analysis was used for predicting the estimated number of new cases in Brazil in 2025-2050. RESULTS: Brazil has significantly reduced the number of new malaria cases in 2020 in comparison with 2015 in the states of Acre (- 56%), Amapá (- 75%), and Amazonas (- 21%); however, they increased in the states of Pará (156%), Rondônia (74%), and Roraima (362%). Forecast of the predicted number of new malaria cases in 2030 is 74,764 (95% CI: 41,116-141,160) in the Brazilian Amazon. CONCLUSIONS: It is likely that Brazil will reduce the number of new malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon in 2030 in relation to that in 2015. Herein forecast shows a reduction by 46% (74,754 in 2030 forecast/137,982 in 2015), but this reduction is yet far from the proposed reduction under the WHO GTS 2030 milestone (90%). Stable and unbeatable transmission in the Juruá River Valley, Manaus, and Lábrea still support endemic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Today's cross-border malaria is impacting the state of Roraima unprecedently. If this situation is maintained, the malaria elimination goal (zero cases) may not be reached before 2050. An enhanced political commitment is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs in the post-2030 milestones for malaria elimination.

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Man-made changes to the landscape play a crucial role in altering the epidemiologic patterns of infectious diseases, mainly as a result of pathogen spillover. Sylvatic yellow fever is ideally suited to modeling of this phenomenon as the risk of transmission of the disease as well as its circulation and dispersal are associated with forest fragmentation. In this study we investigated the temporal dispersal pattern of yellow fever virus (YFV) by means of confirmed cases of epizootics in non-human primates in municipalities in the state of São Paulo where there was no recommendation for vaccination in 2017. We analyzed the resistance to dispersal associated with different classes of land use and the geographic distances between the different locations where epizootics were recorded. The model that best explained the temporal dispersal pattern of YFV in the study area indicated that this was influenced by the geographic distance between collection locations and by the permeability of the forest edges (150 m) at the interface with the following core areas: Water, Agricultural, Non-Forest Formation and Forestry. Water, Agricultural, Urban and Forest core areas and the interfaces between the latter two formed important barriers to circulation of the virus. These findings indicate that fragmentation of vegetation tends to decrease the time taken for pathogens to spread, while conservation of forest areas has the opposite effect.

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