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INTRODUCTION: In Argentina, the national guidelines for lipid control emphasize the use of relatively inexpensive low- or moderate-potency statins by patients at high risk (>20 %) of a cardiovascular event. The objective of this study was to compare the impact and costs of the current national CVD prevention guidelines with regard to morbidity and mortality in Argentina with the impact and costs of three strategies that incorporate high-potency statins. METHODS: We used the CVD Policy Model-Argentina to model the proposed interventions. This model is a national-scale, state-transition (Markov) computer simulation model of the CVD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs in adults 35-84 years of age. We modeled three scenarios: scenario 1 lowers the risk threshold for treatment to >10 % according the Framingham Risk Score (FRS); scenario 2 intensifies statin potency under current treatment thresholds; and scenario 3 combines both scenarios by lowering the treatment threshold to ≥10 % FRS and intensifying statin potency. RESULTS: Scenario 1 would translate into 1400 fewer MIs and 500 fewer CHD deaths every year, a 3 % and 2 % reduction, respectively. Scenario 2 would lead to 2000 fewer MIs and 1000 fewer CHD deaths every year. Scenario 3 would result in the greatest reduction in MIs and CHD deaths, with 3400 fewer MIs and 1400 fewer CHD deaths every year, which translates to a 7 % and 6 % reduction, respectively. All scenarios were cost-effective if the cost of a high-potency statin pill was under US$0.25. CONCLUSION: Incorporating those individuals with greater than 10 % cardiovascular risk and the use of high-potency statins into Argentina's national lipid guidelines could result in fewer CHD deaths and events at a reasonable cost.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. METHOD: Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. RESULTS: The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to -0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was -0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. CONCLUSION: Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy.

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Para fijar las metas en salud pública, es aconsejable utilizar un procedimiento científico riguroso que contemple el uso de toda la evidencia epidemiológica disponible. OBJETIVOS: Proyectar la evolución de los factores de riesgo para enfermedades no transmisibles y el potencial impacto de distintas intervenciones poblacionales sobre su prevalencia. MÉTODOS:Se utilizó el software STELLA® para proyectar la evolución de la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo en un escenario basal (sin intervención)y se modelaron los efectos que podrían tener distintas intervenciones para determinar su impacto. RESULTADOS: Según las estimaciones para 2016, la prevalencia de tabaquismo, hipertensión arterial, hipercolesterolemia, diabetes, obesidad e inactividad física será de 24,9...

The setting of public health targets should use a strict scientific procedure which includes all the epidemiological evidence available. OBJECTIVES:To project the evolution of non-communicable disease risk factors and the potential impact of different population-based interventions. METHODS: TheSTELLA® software was used to project the risk factor prevalence both without interventions and with the possible effect of different interventions. RESULTS: According to the estimates for 2016, the rates of smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, obesity and physical inactivity will be 24.9...

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Para fijar las metas en salud pública, es aconsejable utilizar un procedimiento científico riguroso que contemple el uso de toda la evidencia epidemiológica disponible. OBJETIVOS: Proyectar la evolución de los factores de riesgo para enfermedades no transmisibles y el potencial impacto de distintas intervenciones poblacionales sobre su prevalencia. METODOS:Se utilizó el software STELLA« para proyectar la evolución de la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo en un escenario basal (sin intervención)y se modelaron los efectos que podrían tener distintas intervenciones para determinar su impacto. RESULTADOS: Según las estimaciones para 2016, la prevalencia de tabaquismo, hipertensión arterial, hipercolesterolemia, diabetes, obesidad e inactividad física será de 24,9...(AU)

The setting of public health targets should use a strict scientific procedure which includes all the epidemiological evidence available. OBJECTIVES:To project the evolution of non-communicable disease risk factors and the potential impact of different population-based interventions. METHODS: TheSTELLA« software was used to project the risk factor prevalence both without interventions and with the possible effect of different interventions. RESULTS: According to the estimates for 2016, the rates of smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, obesity and physical inactivity will be 24.9...(AU)

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BACKGROUND: Demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with smoking behavior were evaluated in a nationwide household survey in Argentina to describe the status of the tobacco epidemic. METHODS: Face-to-face interviews with adults, age 20 and older, assessed smoking status, frequency, and age of initiation. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compare social and demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 43,863 participants, 38% of men and 24% of women were current smokers, and 20% of current smokers smoked occasionally. For older men and women, smoking was less prevalent and their probability of quitting higher. Men with more than high school education were less likely to be current smokers. Rates for women did not differ by education. CONCLUSIONS: The lower smoking rates among men with more education suggest that Argentina has begun to transition to the next stage of the tobacco epidemic. Tobacco control policy must direct efforts to change smoking behavior.