RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of "Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II" (APACHE-II), "Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3" (SAPS-3), and "APACHE-II Score for Critically Ill Patients with a Solid Tumor" (APACHE-IICCP) models in cancer patients admitted to ICU. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 414 patients with an active solid tumor. Discrimination was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic (AROC) curves and calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit C test (H-L). RESULTS: The hospital mortality rate was 32.6%. In the total cohort, discrimination for prognostic models were: APACHE-IICCP (AROC 0.98), APACHE-II (AROC 0.96), SAPS-3 for Central and South American countries (SAPS-3CSA) (AROC 0.95), and SAPS-3 (AROC 0.91). Calibration was good (p value of H-L test > 0.05) using APACHE-IICCP, APACHE-II and SAPS-3CSA models. Estimation of the probability of death was more precise with APACHE-IICCP (standardized mortality ratio, SMR = 1.03) and SAPS-3 (SMR = 1.08) models. Further analysis showed that discrimination was high with all prognostic model whether for patients with planned ICU admission (AROC APACHE-IICCP 0.97, APACHE-II 0.96, SAPS-3 0.95, SAPS-3CSA 0.95) or for patients with unplanned ICU admission (AROC APACHE-IICCP 0.97, APACHE-II 0.94, SAPS-3 0.86, SAPS-3CSA 0.95). Calibration was good for all predictive models in both subgroups (p value of H-L test > 0.05, except for APACHE-II model inpatients with planned ICU admission). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study, general predictive models (e.g., APACHE-II, SAPS-3) and cancer-specific models (e.g., APACHE-IICCP) are accurate in predicting hospital mortality. Other studies confirming these results are required.
Assuntos
APACHE , Modelos Estatísticos , Neoplasias/etiologia , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Idoso , Área Sob a Curva , Estado Terminal/mortalidade , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Curva ROCRESUMO
La mortalidad de causa cardíaca se ha evaluado extensamente en el contexto extrahospitalario; sin embargo, los estudios relacionados con este tema en los pacientes hospitalizados son escasos. La revisión de la literatura indica que en los pacientes recién operados son más frecuentes las enfermedades isquémicas no ateroscleróticas y el embolismo pulmonar agudo; y en los ingresados por causas médicas, el embolismo pulmonar agudo, la insuficiencia cardíaca aguda y el paro cardiorrespiratorio. En los enfermos ingresados en unidades de atención al paciente grave predominan los episodios isquémicos no ateroscleróticos, principalmente relacionados con estados de shock, el paro cardiorrespiratorio, el embolismo pulmonar agudo y la insuficiencia cardíaca aguda. La evaluación y control de los factores de riesgo cardiovascular, el mantenimiento del tratamiento de base, la corrección de las alteraciones fisiopatológicas agudas, la movilización y rehabilitación precoz, la tromboprofilaxis y la atención protocolizada, son las principales estrategias de prevención. Se necesitan ensayos clínicos adecuados para comprobar la eficacia y seguridad de las medidas profilácticas
Mortality from cardiac causes has been extensively evaluated in the outpatient context; however, studies related to this topic in hospitalized patients are scarce. The literature review showed that non atherosclerotic ischemic diseases and acute pulmonary embolism are more frequent in recently operated patients; while in those admitted for medical reasons, the acute pulmonary embolism, acute heart failure and cardiorespiratory arrest can be present. In patients admitted to the acute care units predominated the non-atherosclerotic ischemic events, mainly related to states of shock, cardiorespiratory arrest, acute pulmonary embolism and acute heart failure. The evaluation and control of cardiovascular risk factors, maintenance of basic treatment, correction of acute pathophysiological changes, mobilization and early rehabilitation, thromboprophylaxis and protocoled care, are the main prevention strategies to be followed. Adequate clinical trials are required to verify the efficacy and safety of prophylactic measures