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Background: Globally, prisons are high-incidence settings for tuberculosis. Yet the role of prisons as reservoirs of M. tuberculosis, propagating epidemics through spillover to surrounding communities, has been difficult to measure directly. Methods: To quantify the role of prisons in driving wider community M. tuberculosis transmission, we conducted prospective genomic surveillance in Central West Brazil from 2014 to 2019. We whole genome sequenced 1152 M. tuberculosis isolates collected during active and passive surveillance inside and outside prisons and linked genomes to detailed incarceration histories. We applied multiple phylogenetic and genomic clustering approaches and inferred timed transmission trees. Findings: M. tuberculosis sequences from incarcerated and non-incarcerated people were closely related in a maximum likelihood phylogeny. The majority (70.8%; 46/65) of genomic clusters including people with no incarceration history also included individuals with a recent history of incarceration. Among cases in individuals with no incarceration history, 50.6% (162/320) were in clusters that included individuals with recent incarceration history, suggesting that transmission chains often span prisons and communities. We identified a minimum of 18 highly probable spillover events, M. tuberculosis transmission from people with a recent incarceration history to people with no prior history of incarceration, occurring in the state's four largest cities and across sampling years. We additionally found that frequent transfers of people between the state's prisons creates a highly connected prison network that likely disseminates M. tuberculosis across the state. Interpretation: We developed a framework for measuring spillover from high-incidence environments to surrounding communities by integrating genomic and spatial information. Our findings indicate that, in this setting, prisons serve not only as disease reservoirs, but also disseminate M. tuberculosis across highly connected prison networks, both amplifying and propagating M. tuberculosis risk in surrounding communities. Funding: Brazil's National Council for Scientific and Technological Development and US National Institutes of Health.
RESUMO
Whole genome sequencing (WGS) can elucidate Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission patterns but more data is needed to guide its use in high-burden settings. In a household-based TB transmissibility study in Peru, we identified a large MIRU-VNTR Mtb cluster (148 isolates) with a range of resistance phenotypes, and studied host and bacterial factors contributing to its spread. WGS was performed on 61 of the 148 isolates. We compared transmission link inference using epidemiological or genomic data and estimated the dates of emergence of the cluster and antimicrobial drug resistance (DR) acquisition events by generating a time-calibrated phylogeny. Using a set of 12,032 public Mtb genomes, we determined bacterial factors characterizing this cluster and under positive selection in other Mtb lineages. Four of the 61 isolates were distantly related and the remaining 57 isolates diverged ca. 1968 (95%HPD: 1945-1985). Isoniazid resistance arose once and rifampin resistance emerged subsequently at least three times. Emergence of other DR types occurred as recently as within the last year of sampling. We identified five cluster-defining SNPs potentially contributing to transmissibility. In conclusion, clusters (as defined by MIRU-VNTR typing) may be circulating for decades in a high-burden setting. WGS allows for an enhanced understanding of transmission, drug resistance, and bacterial fitness factors.
Assuntos
Genoma Bacteriano/imunologia , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genética , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/microbiologia , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/transmissão , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antituberculosos/farmacologia , Técnicas de Tipagem Bacteriana/métodos , DNA Bacteriano/genética , Feminino , Genoma Bacteriano/genética , Genômica/métodos , Genótipo , Humanos , Isoniazida/farmacologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/efeitos dos fármacos , Peru , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único/genética , Prevalência , Rifampina/farmacologia , Análise de Sequência de DNA/métodos , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma/métodos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002737.].
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: It has been hypothesized that prisons serve as amplifiers of general tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, but there is a paucity of data on this phenomenon and the potential population-level effects of prison-focused interventions. This study (1) quantifies the TB risk for prisoners as they traverse incarceration and release, (2) mathematically models the impact of prison-based interventions on TB burden in the general population, and (3) generalizes this model to a wide range of epidemiological contexts. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained individual-level incarceration data for all inmates (n = 42,925) and all reported TB cases (n = 5,643) in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul from 2007 through 2013. We matched individuals between prisoner and TB databases and estimated the incidence of TB from the time of incarceration and the time of prison release using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 130 new TB cases diagnosed during incarceration and 170 among individuals released from prison. During imprisonment, TB rates increased from 111 cases per 100,000 person-years at entry to a maximum of 1,303 per 100,000 person-years at 5.2 years. At release, TB incidence was 229 per 100,000 person-years, which declined to 42 per 100,000 person-years (the average TB incidence in Brazil) after 7 years. We used these data to populate a compartmental model of TB transmission and incarceration to evaluate the effects of various prison-based interventions on the incidence of TB among prisoners and the general population. Annual mass TB screening within Brazilian prisons would reduce TB incidence in prisons by 47.4% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 44.4%-52.5%) and in the general population by 19.4% (95% BCI 17.9%-24.2%). A generalized model demonstrates that prison-based interventions would have maximum effectiveness in reducing community incidence in populations with a high concentration of TB in prisons and greater degrees of mixing between ex-prisoners and community members. Study limitations include our focus on a single Brazilian state and our retrospective use of administrative databases. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the prison environment, more so than the prison population itself, drives TB incidence, and targeted interventions within prisons could have a substantial effect on the broader TB epidemic.