RESUMO

We use a time dependent modification of the Kermack and McKendrick model to study the evolution of the influenza A(H1N1)v epidemic reported in the Mexico City area under the control measures used during April and May 2009. The model illustrates how the sanitary measures postponed the peak of the epidemic and decreased its intensity. It provides quantitative predictions on the effect of relaxing the sanitary measures after a period of control. We show how the sanitary measures reduced the maximal prevalence of the infected population from 10% to less than 6% of the total population. We also show how the model predicts the time of maximal prevalence and explains the effect of the control measures.

Assuntos

Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Medição de Risco/métodos , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Incidência , México , Vigilância da População , Portugal/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco