RESUMO
The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2-7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km2 ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.
Assuntos
Secas , Florestas , Biomassa , Dióxido de Carbono/farmacologia , Simulação por Computador , Geografia , Modelos Teóricos , Transpiração Vegetal/efeitos dos fármacos , Transpiração Vegetal/fisiologia , Chuva , América do SulRESUMO
Considerable uncertainty surrounds the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the composition and structure of Amazon forests. Building upon results from two large-scale ecosystem drought experiments in the eastern Brazilian Amazon that observed increases in mortality rates among some tree species but not others, in this study we investigate the physiological traits underpinning these differential demographic responses. Xylem pressure at 50% conductivity (xylem-P50 ), leaf turgor loss point (TLP), cellular osmotic potential (πo ), and cellular bulk modulus of elasticity (ε), all traits mechanistically linked to drought tolerance, were measured on upper canopy branches and leaves of mature trees from selected species growing at the two drought experiment sites. Each species was placed a priori into one of four plant functional type (PFT) categories: drought-tolerant versus drought-intolerant based on observed mortality rates, and subdivided into early- versus late-successional based on wood density. We tested the hypotheses that the measured traits would be significantly different between the four PFTs and that they would be spatially conserved across the two experimental sites. Xylem-P50 , TLP, and πo , but not ε, occurred at significantly higher water potentials for the drought-intolerant PFT compared to the drought-tolerant PFT; however, there were no significant differences between the early- and late-successional PFTs. These results suggest that these three traits are important for determining drought tolerance, and are largely independent of wood density-a trait commonly associated with successional status. Differences in these physiological traits that occurred between the drought-tolerant and drought-intolerant PFTs were conserved between the two research sites, even though they had different soil types and dry-season lengths. This more detailed understanding of how xylem and leaf hydraulic traits vary between co-occuring drought-tolerant and drought-intolerant tropical tree species promises to facilitate a much-needed improvement in the representation of plant hydraulics within terrestrial ecosystem and biosphere models, which will enhance our ability to make robust predictions of how future changes in climate will affect tropical forests.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Secas , Floresta Úmida , Brasil , Folhas de Planta , Árvores , Clima Tropical , Água , XilemaRESUMO
Amazon forests, which store â¼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Biomassa , Brasil , Desidratação , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto , Estações do Ano , SoloRESUMO
Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to drought introduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.
Assuntos
Ciclo do Carbono , Carbono/metabolismo , Modelos Biológicos , Árvores/fisiologia , Água/fisiologia , Biomassa , Brasil , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Ritmo Circadiano , Desidratação , Secas , Ecossistema , Oxigênio/metabolismo , Fotossíntese/fisiologia , Folhas de Planta/fisiologia , Solo , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Clima Tropical , MadeiraRESUMO
A mosaic of protected areas, including indigenous lands, sustainable-use production forests and reserves and strictly protected forests is the cornerstone of conservation in the Amazon, with almost 50 per cent of the region now protected. However, recent research indicates that isolation from direct deforestation or degradation may not be sufficient to maintain the ecological integrity of Amazon forests over the next several decades. Large-scale changes in fire and drought regimes occurring as a result of deforestation and greenhouse gas increases may result in forest degradation, regardless of protected status. How severe or widespread these feedbacks will be is uncertain, but the arc of deforestation in south-southeastern Amazonia appears to be particularly vulnerable owing to high current deforestation rates and ecological sensitivity to climate change. Maintaining forest ecosystem integrity may require significant strengthening of forest conservation on private property, which can in part be accomplished by leveraging existing policy mechanisms.
Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Ecossistema , Clima Tropical , Brasil , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Secas , Política Ambiental , Incêndios , Efeito Estufa , Chuva , ÁrvoresRESUMO
The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.
Assuntos
Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Clima Tropical , Malásia , Panamá , Luz Solar , Temperatura , TailândiaRESUMO
While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.