RESUMO

Hydrological and erosion dynamics are prone to change due to natural factors, human activities, or climate change. These changes are mainly related to modifications of land use and cover and can be assessed through the concept of connectivity, which analyzes how the spatial distribution of the elements facilitates runoff and sediment transport. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in hydrological and sediment connectivity over 42 years and projected under a climate change scenario in the tropical Santa Cruz catchment in Aquismón, S.L.P., Mexico. The index of connectivity (IC) was computed using SedInConnect version 2.3 and the ArcSWAT model to estimate runoff. Hydrological connectivity and runoff were projected for 2027 using the MPI ECHAM 5 in the A2 climate change scenario. The results indicated that spatio-temporal changes in land use/cover, in conjunction with geomorphological features and expected climate change, would modify hydrological and sediment connectivity, especially in flat areas, where conversion of natural vegetation to cropland was steadily increasing over the years. Under future conditions, runoff and sediment transport are likely to increase, which will impact soil erosion and vulnerability to flooding but will not necessarily be negative. The study shows how spatial-temporal integration of runoff, sediments, landforms, land use cover and change, and connectivity can improve our understanding of catchment dynamics and the importance of analyses that characterize their evolution. The results can subsequently be applied and replicated in other catchments for management and restoration purposes.

Assuntos

Mudança Climática , Hidrologia , Inundações , Atividades Humanas , Humanos , México

RESUMO

Connectivity is an emergent property that describes how complex topography favors or impedes sediment transfer processes. In active volcanic areas, high connectivity may lead to extremely efficient processes, such as lahars. The aim of the present study is to examine the behavior (activation-deactivation) of sub-basins affected by volcanic and anthropogenic processes by studying the changes in connectivity and hydrological efficiency. Two volcanic zones in Mexico were selected: Volcán de Colima and Popocatépetl volcano, the two most active and dangerous volcanoes in the country. The joint index of connectivity (ICJ) and lateral hydrological efficiency index (LHEI) were calculated for both volcanic areas in basins recently affected by eruptive activity (Volcán de Colima) and co-seismic landslides (Popocatépetl). The analyses enabled the identification of eleven recently activated sub-basins (3.82 km2) at the Volcán de Colima and fifteen (3.77 km2) at the Popocatepetl volcano, as a consequence of natural processes and economic activities. Critical thresholds indicating the percentage area of land cover/use at which a sub-basin reaches high or very high LHEI values and the percentage of land cover/use change required for a sub-basin to modify its behavior (activation-deactivation) were identified using classification trees. The holistic capacity of the concepts of connectivity and hydrological efficiency permits analyzing the spatiotemporal variations of sediment transport based on the interactions between the hydrogeomorphological dynamics of volcanic processes and the territorial impact of socio-economical activities. Through this approach, new active areas have been identified in both volcanoes; the knowledge of the processes that occurred in these areas represents a key factor for hazard and risk assessment for the population in the near future.