RESUMO
Background: The true incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Costa Rica was likely much higher than officially reported, because infection is often associated with mild symptoms and testing was limited by official guidelines and socio-economic factors. Methods: Using serology to define natural infection, we developed a statistical model to estimate the true cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica early in the pandemic. We estimated seroprevalence from 2223 blood samples collected from November 2020 to October 2021 from 1976 population-based controls from the RESPIRA study. Samples were tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid and the receptor-binding-domain of the spike proteins. Using a generalized linear model, we estimated the ratio of true infections to officially reported cases. Applying these ratios to officially reported totals by age, sex, and geographic area, we estimated the true number of infections in the study area, where 70% of Costa Ricans reside. We adjusted the seroprevalence estimates for antibody decay over time, estimated from 1562 blood samples from 996 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases. Findings: The estimated total proportion infected (ETPI) was 4.0 times higher than the officially reported total proportion infected (OTPI). By December 16th, 2021, the ETPI was 47% [42-52] while the OTPI was 12%. In children and adolescents, the ETPI was 11.0 times higher than the OTPI. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that nearly half the population had been infected by the end of 2021. By the end of 2022, it is likely that a large majority of the population had been infected. Funding: This work was sponsored and funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases through the National Cancer Institute, the Science, Innovation, Technology and Telecommunications Ministry of Costa Rica, and Costa Rican Biomedical Research Agency-Fundacion INCIENSA (grant N/A).
RESUMO
The spike protein is the main protein component of the SARS-CoV-2 virion surface. The spike receptor-binding motif mediates recognition of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor, a critical step in infection, and is the preferential target for spike-neutralizing antibodies. Posttranslational modifications of the spike receptor-binding motif have been shown to modulate viral infectivity and host immune response, but these modifications are still being explored. Here we studied asparagine deamidation of the spike protein, a spontaneous event that leads to the appearance of aspartic and isoaspartic residues, which affect both the protein backbone and its charge. We used computational prediction and biochemical experiments to identify five deamidation hotspots in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Asparagine residues 481 and 501 in the receptor-binding motif deamidate with a half-life of 16.5 and 123 days at 37 °C, respectively. Deamidation is significantly slowed at 4 °C, indicating a strong dependence of spike protein molecular aging on environmental conditions. Deamidation of the spike receptor-binding motif decreases the equilibrium constant for binding to the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor more than 3.5-fold, yet its high conservation pattern suggests some positive effect on viral fitness. We propose a model for deamidation of the full SARS-CoV-2 virion illustrating how deamidation of the spike receptor-binding motif could lead to the accumulation on the virion surface of a nonnegligible chemically diverse spike population in a timescale of days. Our findings provide a potential mechanism for molecular aging of the spike protein with significant consequences for understanding virus infectivity and vaccine development.