RESUMO
The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated-an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage-evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4-31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12-34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10-25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15-31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn.
Assuntos
Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Infecções por HIV , Modelos Teóricos , Tuberculose , Humanos , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/mortalidade , Tuberculose/economia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Incidência , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/prevenção & controle , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/economia , PobrezaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Data integration and visualisation techniques have been widely used in scientific research to allow the exploitation of large volumes of data and support highly complex or long-lasting research questions. Integration allows data from different sources to be aggregated into a single database comprising variables of interest for different types of studies. Visualisation allows large and complex data sets to be manipulated and interpreted in a more intuitive way. METHODS: Integration and visualisation techniques were applied in a malaria surveillance ecosystem to build an integrated database comprising notifications, deaths, vector control and climate data. This database is accessed through Malaria-VisAnalytics, a visual mining platform for descriptive and predictive analysis supporting decision and policy-making by governmental and health agents. RESULTS: Experimental and validation results have proved that the visual exploration and interaction mechanisms allow effective surveillance for rapid action in suspected outbreaks, as well as support a set of different research questions over integrated malaria electronic health records. CONCLUSION: The integrated database and the visual mining platform (Malaria-VisAnalytics) allow different types of users to explore malaria-related data in a user-friendly interface. Summary data and key insights can be obtained through different techniques and dimensions. The case study on Manaus can serve as a reference for future replication in other municipalities. Finally, both the database and the visual mining platform can be extended with new data sources and functionalities to accommodate more complex scenarios (such as real-time data capture and analysis).