RESUMO

Lacking national direction, in 2020 Brazilian states adopted a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions to combat COVID-19, adjusting their stringency over time. We took advantage of this variation across states and over time to estimate the independent effect of seven interventions on the growth rate ratios of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Panel regressions using daily data from March to December 2020 for twelve states show that two interventions, suspension of public events and masking mandates, significantly reduced the spread of the disease. Partial and full suspension of public events were equally effective. Full masking mandates were more effective than partial ones. Together, suspension of public events and full masking mandates reduced the growth rate ratios of both cases and deaths almost to 1, the point at which cases and deaths are no longer increasing. Policy makers may find this analysis useful as they aim to choose the most effective nonpharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19's social and economic burdens.

Assuntos

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease, still endemic in many countries that may lead to neurological, ophthalmic, and motor sequelae if not treated early. Access to timely diagnosis and multidrug therapy (MDT) remains a crucial element in the World Health Organization's strategy to eliminate the disease as a public health problem. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aims to evaluate the accuracy of rapid point-of-care (POC) tests for diagnosis of leprosy. METHODS: Searches were carried out in electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, CRD, Cochrane Library and LILACS) in April 2021 for patients with suspicion or confirmatory diagnostic of leprosy, classified in multibacillary (MB) or paucibacillary (PB) cases, performing rapid POC serological tests compared to clinical evaluation, smear microscopy and immunohistochemistry analysis. Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool (QUADAS-2). A meta-analysis was undertaken to generate pooled estimates of diagnostic parameters, presenting sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) values. The review protocol was registered at PROSPERO, CRD # 42014009658. FINDINGS: From 893 potentially relevant references, 12 articles were included reporting 16 diagnostic tests accuracy studies with 5395 individuals enrolled. Meta-analysis of NDO-LID and PGL-I tests data in MB patients showed sensitivity and specificity [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.83 (0.71-0.91), 0.91 (0.72-0.97); and 0.92 (0.86-0.96), 0.93 (0.78-0.98); respectively, with high heterogeneity among the studies. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results can inform policymakers regarding the possibility of implementing accurate, rapid POC tests for leprosy in public health services, especially within primary health care.

Assuntos

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial evidence on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), there is still limited evidence on the individual effects of different types of NPIs on social distancing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used panel data analysis to evaluate the effects of mandatory social distancing rules on social distancing. We obtained data on six different categories of mandatory restrictions implemented in Brazil, by date and state, from state government gazettes (diários oficiais). We then defined a social distancing rules index (SDI) to measure the strictness of social distancing rules, assigning each a value of 2, 1, or 0 depending on whether restrictions were full, partial, or very limited/non-existent at every given time. A separate variable was defined for masking mandates. We tested whether the following variables were associated to social distancing: SDI, masking mandates, COVID-19 incidence, population socioeconomic status, and political orientation. Data is for each day between March 11th and November 10th, 2020 in the 27 Brazilian states (N = 6615). FINDINGS: Social distancing increased when social distancing rules were stricter, and decreased when the use of face masks became mandatory. The effects of different types of restrictions varied: suspending in-person classes and gatherings, religious/sport/cultural activities had a greater effect than other types of restrictions. Also, the effect of social distancing rules on people's behaviour decreased over time, especially when rules were stricter. INTERPRETATION: Mandatory social distancing rules must be adopted to increase social distancing. Stricter rules have a higher impact, but result in decreased compliance over time. Policymakers should prioritize more targeted policies.

Assuntos

RESUMO

BACKGROUND Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease, still endemic in many countries that may lead to neurological, ophthalmic, and motor sequelae if not treated early. Access to timely diagnosis and multidrug therapy (MDT) remains a crucial element in the World Health Organization's strategy to eliminate the disease as a public health problem. OBJECTIVES This systematic review aims to evaluate the accuracy of rapid point-of-care (POC) tests for diagnosis of leprosy. METHODS Searches were carried out in electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, CRD, Cochrane Library and LILACS) in April 2021 for patients with suspicion or confirmatory diagnostic of leprosy, classified in multibacillary (MB) or paucibacillary (PB) cases, performing rapid POC serological tests compared to clinical evaluation, smear microscopy and immunohistochemistry analysis. Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool (QUADAS-2). A meta-analysis was undertaken to generate pooled estimates of diagnostic parameters, presenting sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) values. The review protocol was registered at PROSPERO, CRD # 42014009658. FINDINGS From 893 potentially relevant references, 12 articles were included reporting 16 diagnostic tests accuracy studies with 5395 individuals enrolled. Meta-analysis of NDO-LID and PGL-I tests data in MB patients showed sensitivity and specificity [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.83 (0.71-0.91), 0.91 (0.72-0.97); and 0.92 (0.86-0.96), 0.93 (0.78-0.98); respectively, with high heterogeneity among the studies. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Our results can inform policymakers regarding the possibility of implementing accurate, rapid POC tests for leprosy in public health services, especially within primary health care.

RESUMO

Background and study aims Gastrointestinal cancer is an important cause of death worldwide. Remote populations are especially vulnerable to these conditions due to reduced access to screening and adequate treatment. In this context, the Belterra project was designed as a pilot taskforce to deliver gastrointestinal screening to an underserved Amazonian population and to spread knowledge and practice to local health workers. This study aimed to describe the implementation and present the results of the Belterra Project. Patients and methods The project took place between October 2014 and December 2017 in Belterra, Pará, Brazil. Public-private partnerships were obtained and were essential for funding. The project required complex logistic solutions to provide gastrointestinal screening to every inhabitant between 50 and 70 years of age, including medical equipment and personal transportation to a remote area. Subjects were asked about their medical history, and received a physical examination, endoscopic examinations, and stool tests. Results Over the course of 19 expeditions, we screened 2,022 inhabitants of Belterra, aged 50 to 70 years. Five colorectal and six gastric adenocarcinomas were diagnosed, as were several lower-stage lesions. Overall, 26 % of the participants undergoing colonoscopy showed some type of colonic lesion. Conclusions Notwithstanding the geographical, cultural, and financial barriers, this study suggests that the implementation of a gastrointestinal cancer screening program for remote Brazilian populations is feasible, reaching high adherence. Although logistics is very demanding, such campaigns may be a good strategy to provide mass gastrointestinal cancer screening for underserved populations.

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are recommended for use in pediatric immunization programs worldwide. Few data are available on their effect against mortality. We present a multicountry evaluation of the population-level impact of PCVs against death due to pneumonia in children < 5 years of age. METHODS: We obtained national-level mortality data between 2000 and 2016 from 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, using the standardized protocol. Time series models were used to evaluate the decline in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period while controlling for unrelated temporal trends using control causes of death. RESULTS: The estimated declines in pneumonia mortality following the introduction of PCVs ranged from 11% to 35% among children aged 2-59 months in 5 countries: Colombia (24% [95% credible interval {CrI}, 3%-35%]), Ecuador (25% [95% CrI, 4%-41%]), Mexico (11% [95% CrI, 3%-18%]), Nicaragua (19% [95% CrI, 0-34%]), and Peru (35% [95% CrI, 20%-47%]). In Argentina, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic, the declines were not detected in the aggregated age group but were detected in certain age strata. In Guyana and Honduras, the estimates had large uncertainty, and no declines were detected. Across the 10 countries, most of which have low to moderate incidence of pneumonia mortality, PCVs have prevented nearly 4500 all-cause pneumonia deaths in children 2-59 months since introduction. CONCLUSIONS: Although the data quality was variable between countries, and the patterns varied across countries and age groups, the balance of evidence suggests that mortality due to all-cause pneumonia in children declined after PCV introduction. The impact could be greater in populations with a higher prevaccine burden of pneumonia.

Assuntos

RESUMO

This issue of Vaccine is devoted to papers from a research project that developed two types of simulation models, static and dynamic transmission, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization to prevent pertussis in infants in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The research was conducted by a multinational team of investigators and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to gain an understanding of when and where maternal immunization might be a good public health investment for LMICs. Here we review the project's central lessons for vaccine policy and research. Models require a lot of data. As most LMICs lack good data, the models were built using pertussis disease burden data from Brazil, a middle-income country with three long-established, independent information systems (disease surveillance, hospitalization, and mortality), on the hypothesis that the disease process is similar across countries. Values for key parameters, particularly infant mortality, infant vaccine coverage, and costs of vaccination and treatment, were then varied to represent other LMICs. The results show that coverage levels of infant whole cell pertussis (wP) vaccine are key to the cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization. In settings where infant wP coverage is below the threshold thought necessary to eliminate pertussis in the population, 90-95%, maternal immunization is cost-effective, even cost-saving. By contrast, it is very expensive in countries capable of maintaining infant vaccination in or above the threshold range. The research also suggests that, while static models may serve to explore an intervention's cost-effectiveness initially, dynamic transmission models are essential for more accurate estimates. These findings can help guide policies toward maternal pertussis immunization, but also show that developing better data on neonatal pertussis mortality burden and infant vaccine coverage in LMICs, and on the duration of immunity of currently available pertussis vaccines, are key priorities to support better vaccine policy.

Assuntos

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Using dynamic transmission models we evaluated the health and cost outcomes of adding acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination of pregnant women to infant vaccination in three Brazilian states that represent different socioeconomic conditions. The primary objective was to determine whether the same model structure could be used to represent pertussis disease dynamics in differing socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: We tested three model structures (SIR, SIRS, SIRSIs) to represent population-level transmission in three socio-demographically distinct Brazilian states: São Paulo, Paraná and Bahia. Two strategies were evaluated: infant wP vaccination alone versus maternal aP immunization plus infant wP vaccination. Model projections for 2014-2029 include outpatient and inpatient pertussis cases, pertussis deaths, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, and costs (in 2014 USD) of maternal aP vaccination, infant vaccination, and pertussis medical treatment. Incremental cost per DALY averted is presented from the perspective of the Brazilian National Health System. RESULTS: Based on goodness-of-fit statistics, the SIRSIs model fit best, although it had only a modest improvement in statistical quantitative assessments relative to the SIRS model. For all three Brazilian states, maternal aP immunization led to higher costs but also saved infant lives and averted DALYs. The 2014 USD cost/DALY averted was $3068 in Sao Paulo, $2962 in Parana, and $2022 in Bahia. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding per capita gross regional product only when the probability that a pertussis case is reported was assumed higher than base case implying more overt cases and deaths and therefore more medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: The same model structure fit all three states best, supporting the idea that the disease behaves similarly across different socioeconomic conditions. We also found that immunization of pregnant women with aP is cost-effective in diverse Brazilian states.

Assuntos

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Pertussis is associated with significant disease burden in children worldwide. In addition to its cyclical nature, resurgences of pertussis cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been reported by many countries. We describe the dynamics of pertussis in Brazil, a middle-income country that has experienced a resurgence and that provides good quality data to allow building a dynamic transmission disease model. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive analysis of pertussis burden considering data from the national disease surveillance system, national hospitalization information system and national mortality registry. Study period was 2000-2016. Absolute numbers and rates per 100,000 inhabitants over time, by age sub-groups and geographical regions are presented. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2016, a total of 37,299 reported pertussis cases, 25,240 hospitalizations, and 601 deaths due to pertussis were reported. Although the outcomes - pertussis cases, hospitalizations, and deaths - come from independent information systems, our results document low disease burden with periodic increases every 3-4 years during the years 2000-2010, followed by a sharp increase which peaked in 2014. In both periods, disease burden is concentrated in young children, while its more serious outcomes - hospitalizations and deaths, are concentrated in infants. Pre-outbreak and outbreak disease burden as well as timing of peak during the outbreak period vary by states and within geographical regions, representing valuable resources of data for modelling purposes. CONCLUSION: Consistent disease burden patterns were observed over time in Brazil using a variety of data sources. Given the scarcity of good epidemiological data on pertussis available from low- and middle-income countries, our reported data provide valuable information for the assessment of the public health impact and cost-effectiveness modelling studies of newer strategies to prevent and control pertussis. These data were used to build and calibrate a national dynamic transmission model, which was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization. Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Not applicable.

Assuntos

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) reduce the burden of invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia hospitalizations. However, there is limited evidence of the effect of PCVs on pneumonia mortality in children. It is anticipated that indirect effects resulting from PCV use among children might further reduce the remaining burden of adult pneumococcal disease caused by pneumococcal serotypes contained in PCV. Whether this will result in reduced pneumonia mortality in children and adults is still not known. METHODS: We investigated the impact of PCV on pneumonia hospitalization and mortality in in Ecuador, where PCV was introduced in 2010, considering national data from secondary data sources from 2005 to 2015. Time series analysis using regression models were used to evaluate the decline in the number of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations and deaths in the period post-PCV introduction. The target populations were children under 5 years and adults aged 50 years and over. Outcomes of interest were hospitalizations and mortality in which the main cause of hospital admission and death, respectively, were coded as ICD10 codes J12-18 (pneumonia). Three different models were fitted. RESULTS: We demonstrate a sizeable impact of PCV in pneumonia hospitalization in children < 1 year (27% reduction, 95%CI 12-42%), and < 5 years of age (33% reduction, 95%CI 11-43%). The estimated impact of PCV in pneumonia mortality was a reduction of 14% in < 1 year (95%CI 0-33%), 10% in < 5 years (95%CI 0-25%), and 22% (95%CI 7-34%) in adults aged 50-64 years. Little evidence of a change was detected in elderly ≥ 65 years. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to report on the impact of PCV in pneumonia morbidity and mortality in children and older adults, being relevant to policy makers and global donors. Findings were consistent when using different models. Additional studies on the indirect effect of PCV in older adults are needed.

Assuntos