RESUMO
Live weight (LW) is an important piece of information within production systems, as it is related to several other economic characteristics. However, in the main buffalo-producing regions in the world, it is not common to periodically weigh the animals. We develop and evaluate linear, quadratic, and allometric mathematical models to predict LW using the body volume (BV) formula in lactating water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) reared in southeastern Mexico. The LW (391.5 ± 138.9 kg) and BV (333.62 ± 58.51 dm3) were measured in 165 lactating Murrah buffalo aged between 3 and 10 years. The goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), coefficient of determination (R2), mean-squared error (MSE) and root MSE (RMSE). In addition, the developed models were evaluated through cross-validation (k-folds). The ability of the fitted models to predict the observed values was evaluated based on the RMSEP, R2, and mean absolute error (MAE). LW and BV were significantly positively and strongly correlated (r = 0.81; P < 0.001). The quadratic model had the lowest values of MSE (2788.12) and RMSE (52.80). On the other hand, the allometric model showed the lowest values of BIC (1319.24) and AIC (1313.07). The Quadratic and allometric models had lower values of MSEP and MAE. We recommend the quadratic and allometric models to predict the LW of lactating Murrah buffalo using BV as a predictor.
Assuntos
Búfalos , Lactação , Feminino , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , México , Peso CorporalRESUMO
Buffalo farming is an important livestock activity in Mexico. However, the low technological level of the farms makes it difficult to monitor the growth rates of the animals. The objectives of this study were to analyse the body measurements of 107 adult female Murrah buffaloes, to estimate the interrelationships between those measurements and body weight, and to develop equations to predict body weight (BW) using body measurements including withers at height (WH), rump height (RH), body height (BH), heart girth (HG), abdominal girth (AG), pelvic girth (PG), body length (BL), girth circumference (GC), diagonal body length (DBL), pelvic circumference (PC), and abdomen circumference (AC). The study was conducted on two commercial farms in southern Mexico. Pearson correlation and stepwise regression techniques were used for the data analysis. To find out the best regression models, we used model quality criteria such as coefficient of determination (R2), adjusted R2 (Adj.R2), root mean square error (RMSE), Mallow's Cp, Akaike's information criteria (AIC), Bayesian information criteria (BIC), and coefficient of variation (CV). Correlation results indicated that BW had a positive high correlation (P < 0.01) of all the measured traits. Model 4 (-780.56 + 311.76GC + 383.51DBL + 51.82PC + 47.65AC-106.78BL) was the best regression model with a higher R2 (0.87), Adj. R2 (0.86) smaller Cp (4.24), AIC (749.19), BIC (752.16), and RMSE (36.91). The current study suggests that GC, DBL, PC, AC, and BL might be used in combination to estimate BW of adult female Murrah buffaloes.