RESUMO
Infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) infection is a constant major threat to farmed and wild Atlantic salmon worldwide. Many epidemics have recently been reported in the most important salmon farming regions of the world, including Chile (2007-2009), where ISAV generated the most important disease and economic crisis in history of the salmon industry of the country. The spread of ISAV within a region is most likely by local or neighborhood spread from an infected farm; however, there is evidence that anthropogenic activities, such as movement of live or harvested fish or their byproduct, may have played a more important role than environmental or passive transmission in the 2007-2009 outbreak. Atlantic salmon farms (n=421) were retrospectively followed from stocking to harvesting in southern Chile at the time of the ISAV epidemic (2007-2009). The effect of husbandry and spatial risk factors, in addition to contact-network risk factors, which were obtained from the social network analyses, on time to first ISAV infection was estimated using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Five variables were retained in the final fitted model: co-existing multiple generations on a farm (hazard ratio [HR]=2.585), mean smolt weight at stocking greater than 120g (HR=1.165), farm area (perkm(2)) (HR=1.005), and increased number of shipments entering a farm, i.e. the farm input degree (HR=1.876) were associated with reduced time to infection; whereas time-to-infection was longer for farms located farther from an ongoing ISAV outbreak (HR=0.943). It was demonstrated that movements of latently infected fish resulted in approximately 7 outbreaks, and potentially explain about 6% of the total number of cases during the epidemic. Results from this study provide new information about the mechanisms of spread of ISAV in one the largest documented ISAV epidemics in the world. Findings may be used to support the design and implementation of risk-based surveillance and control programs that may help to prevent, detect and control future ISAV outbreaks.
Assuntos
Doenças dos Peixes/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Peixes/transmissão , Isavirus/fisiologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/veterinária , Salmo salar , Animais , Aquicultura , Chile/epidemiologia , Epidemias/veterinária , Doenças dos Peixes/virologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/transmissão , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/virologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Fatores de Risco , Análise EspacialRESUMO
Spread of infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) at the cage level was quantified using a subset of data from 23 Atlantic salmon Salmo salar farms located in southern Chile. Data collected from official surveillance activities were systematically organized to obtain detailed information on infectious salmon anemia (ISA) outbreaks. Descriptive statistics for outbreak duration, proportion of infected fish, and time to secondary infection were calculated to quantify the magnitude of ISAV incursions. Linear and multiple failure time (MFT) regression models were used to determine factors associated with the cage-level reproduction number (Rc) and hazard rate (HR) for recurrent events, respectively. In addition, the Knox test was used to assess if cage-to-cage transmissions were clustered in space and time. Findings suggest that within farms, ISA outbreaks, on average, lasted 30 wk (median = 26 wk, 95% CI = 24 to 37 wk) and affected 57.3% (95% CI = 47.7 to 67.0%) of susceptible cages. The median time to secondarily diagnosed cages was 23 d. Occurrence of clinical ISAV outbreaks was significantly associated with increased Rc, whereas increased HR was significantly associated with clinical outbreaks and with a large number of fish. Spatio-temporal analysis failed to identify clustering of cage cases, suggesting that within-farm ISAV spread is independent of the spatial location of the cages. Results presented here will help to better understand ISAV transmission, to improve the design of surveillance programs in Chile and other regions in which salmon are intensively farmed, and to examine the economic impact of ISAV and related management strategies on various cost and demand shifting factors.
Assuntos
Doenças dos Peixes/virologia , Isavirus , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/veterinária , Salmo salar , Animais , Aquicultura , Doenças dos Peixes/transmissão , Modelos Lineares , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/transmissão , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/virologiaRESUMO
Infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) caused a large epidemic in farmed Atlantic salmon in Chile in 2007-2009. Here, we assessed co-infection patterns of ISAV and sea lice (SL) based on surveillance data collected by the fish health authority. ISAV status and SL counts in all Atlantic salmon farms located in the 10th region of Chile were registered monthly from July 2007 through December 2009. Each farm was categorized monthly according to its ISAV and SL status. A multinomial time-space scan test using a circular window was applied to identify disease clusters, and a multivariate regression model was fitted to quantify the association between disease-clustering and farm-management factors. Most of the identified clusters (9/13) were associated with high SL burdens. There were significant associations (P < 0.05) between management factors and ISAV/SL status. Areas in which good management practices were associated with a reduced disease risk were identified. The findings of this study suggest that certain management practices can effectively reduce the risk of SL and ISAV in the face of an epidemic and will be helpful towards creating an effective disease control programme in Chile.
Assuntos
Coinfecção/veterinária , Ectoparasitoses/veterinária , Doenças dos Peixes/epidemiologia , Pesqueiros , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/veterinária , Salmo salar , Animais , Chile/epidemiologia , Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Ectoparasitoses/complicações , Ectoparasitoses/epidemiologia , Isavirus/fisiologia , Análise Multivariada , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/complicações , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/epidemiologiaRESUMO
An epidemic of infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) has greatly impacted salmon production in Chile with devastating social and economic consequences. The epidemic is analyzed here and is likely the largest ISAV outbreak reported affecting one of the most productive regions for salmon farming activities in the world. After re-emerging in 2007, ISAV rapidly expanded the following two years, both in magnitude and geographic range, affecting about 65% and 50% of salmon farms located at the 10th and 11th regions of Chile, respectively. A useful metric for the control of infectious diseases that quantifies the progression of an epidemic is the reproduction number at the farm level (R(f)), which describes the mean number of secondary cases generated by an infectious farm. The parameter in this study was estimated for individual farms (R(fi)), specific phases (R(tf)), and for the entire epidemic (R(f)) by using several analytical approaches based on the characterization of the epidemic curves for the two regions. For the initial spread and the epidemic growth phase, initial and intrinsic growth rates were used to estimate R(tf). In addition, two approaches (epidemic final size and nearest neighbor analyses) were used to obtain an individual (R(fi)) and overall estimate of R(f) for the complete epidemic. In general, two distinct regional patterns of spread were identified. In the 10th region, after an explosive initial spread of ISAV in which R(tf) reached 12.0-16.9, a smaller epidemic growth of 1.6≤R(tf)≥2.5 and a final burnout with R(tf)<1 were observed. For the 11th region, R(tf) only reached 2.4 during the initial spread phase, ranged from 1.6≤R(tf)≥4.4 during the epidemic growth phases and ended when R(tf) was <1.0. The epidemic was characterized by clustering of ISAV 'superspreaders' farms i.e., farms with statistically significantly (P<0.047) higher R(fi) values. Distances between pairs of infected farms were statistically significantly (P=0.003) shorter in the 10th compared to the 11th region. Overall, R(f) ranged from 1.6 to 2.5 and 1.3 to 1.7 in the 10th and 11th regions, respectively. Our findings suggest that control efforts were able to protect 38-60% and 23-41% of the farms in the 10th and 11th regions, respectively, and may have resulted in the epidemic not spreading further. In addition, control strategies in highly populated areas using a control zone of at least 10km radius may be more effective than the 5km zone recommended by the World Animal Health Organization.