RESUMO
We analyze the percolation threshold of square lattices comprising a combination of sites with regular and extended neighborhoods. We found that the percolation threshold of these composed systems smoothly decreases with the fraction of sites with extended neighbors. This behavior can be well-fitted by a Tsallis q-Exponential function. We found a relation between the fitting parameters and the differences in the gyration radius among neighborhoods. We also compared the percolation threshold with the critical susceptibility of nearest and next-to-nearest neighbor monoculture plantations vulnerable to the spread of phytopathogen. Notably, the critical susceptibility in monoculture plantations can be described as a linear combination of two composite systems. These results allow the refinement of mathematical models of phytopathogen propagation in agroecology. In turn, this improvement facilitates the implementation of more efficient computational simulations of agricultural epidemiology that are instrumental in testing and formulating control strategies.
RESUMO
Chikungunya is a vector-borne viral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. It does not have any specific treatment, and there is no vaccine. Recent epidemiological data have indicated that a relapse of the infection can occur within three months of the initial infection; however, until now, mathematical models for the spread of the disease have not considered this factor. We propose a mathematical model for the transmission of the Chikungunya virus that considers relapse. We calculated the basic reproductive number $ (R_0) $ of the disease by using the next-generation operator method. We proved the existence of a forward bifurcation. We determined the existence and the global stability of the equilibrium points by using the Lyapunov function method. We fitted the model to data from an outbreak in 2015 in Acapulco, Mexico to estimate the model parameters and $ R_0 $ with the Bayesian approach via a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. In the local sensitivity analysis, we found that the fraction of infected individuals who become asymptomatic has a strong impact on the basic reproductive number and makes some control measures insufficient. The impact of the fraction of infected individuals who become asymptomatic should be considered in Chikungunya control strategies.