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There is no scientific consensus about whether and how species' evolutionary age, or the elapsed time since their origination, might affect their probability of going extinct. Different age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns have been proposed in theoretical and empirical studies, while the existence of a consistent and universal pattern across the tree of life remains debated. If evolutionary age predicts species extinction probability, then the study of ADE should comprise the elapsed time and the ecological process acting on species from their origin to their extinction or to the present for extant species. Additionally, given that closely related species share traits associated with fitness, evolutionary proximity could generate similar ADE patterns. Considering the historical context and extinction selectivity based on evolutionary relatedness, we build on previous theoretical work to formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) as a framework that considers the ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction probability to produce testable predictions on ADE patterns. CRT's domain is the diversification dynamics of two or more clades competing for environmental space throughout time, and its propositions or derived hypotheses are as follows: (i) incumbency effects by an early arriving clade that limit the colonization and the diversification of a younger clade leading to a negative ADE scenario (younger species more prone to extinction than older ones) and (ii) an ecological shift triggered by an environmental change that imposes a new selective regime over the environmental space and leads to a positive ADE scenario (extinction probability increasing with age). From these propositions, we developed the prediction that the ADE scenario would be defined by whether an ecological shift happens or not. We discuss how the CRT could be tested with empirical data and provide examples where it could be applied. We hope this article will provide a common ground to unify results from different fields and foster new empirical tests of the mechanisms derived here while providing insights into CRT theoretical structuration.

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The destruction of natural vegetation in recent decades has been concentrated in the tropics, where ecosystem processes underpin global homeostasis and harbor most of the world's biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are the primary societal tool to avoid this destruction, yet their effectiveness is often questioned. Here, we quantified the impact of PAs and indigenous lands in avoiding 34 years of vegetation destruction in forested and nonforested biomes in Brazil. We showed that the odds of destruction in the PA network are four times lower than in unprotected areas, and generally, this positive effect extends to a buffer zone around PAs. Among the most effective groups of PAs are those that are older, larger, located in the Amazonian region, and indigenous lands. Despite recent setbacks for the Brazilian PA system, we highlight the benefits of PAs for biodiversity and climate if they were instead strengthened.

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BACKGROUND: A key challenge for conservation biology in the Neotropics is to understand how deforestation affects biodiversity at various levels of landscape fragmentation. Addressing this challenge requires expanding the coverage of known biodiversity data, which remain to date restricted to a few well-surveyed regions. Here, we assess the sampling coverage and biases in biodiversity data on fruit-feeding butterflies at the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, discussing their effect on our understanding of the relationship between forest fragmentation and biodiversity at a large-scale. We hypothesize that sampling effort is biased towards large and connected fragments, which occur jointly in space at the Atlantic forest. METHODS: We used a comprehensive dataset of Atlantic Forest fruit-feeding butterfly communities to test for sampling biases towards specific geographical areas, climate conditions and landscape configurations. RESULTS: We found a pattern of geographical aggregation of sampling sites, independently of scale, and a strong sampling bias towards large and connected forest fragments, located near cities and roads. Sampling gaps are particularly acute in small and disconnected forest fragments and rare climate conditions. In contrast, currently available data can provide a fair picture of fruit-feeding butterfly communities in large and connected Atlantic Forest remnants. DISCUSSION: Biased data hamper the inference of the functional relationship between deforestation and biodiversity at a large-scale, since they are geographically clustered and have sampling gaps in small and disconnected fragments. These data are useful to inform decision-makers regarding conservation efforts to curb biodiversity loss in the Atlantic Forest. Thus, we suggest to expand sampling effort to small and disconnected forest fragments, which would allow more accurate evaluations of the effects of landscape modification.

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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are petroleum components that, when dissolved in the aquatic environment, can disrupt normal animal physiological functions and negatively affect species populations. Gambusia yucatana is an endemic fish of the Yucatán Peninsula that seems to be particularly sensitive to the presence of PAHs dissolved in the water. Here, we examined PAH effects on gene expressions linked to endocrine disruption and biotransformation in this species. Specifically, we examined the expression of vitellogenin I (vtg1), vitellogenin II (vtg2), oestrogen receptor α (esr1), oestrogen receptor ß (esr2), aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) and the cytochrome P4503A (CYP3A) genes. We exposed G. yucatana to different concentrations of PAHs (3.89, 9.27, 19.51 µg/L) over a period of 72 h and found changes associated with reproduction, such as increases in hepatic expression of vtg, esr, AhR and CYP3A, mainly at concentrations of 9.27 and 19.51 µg/L. Our results also indicate that benzo[a]pyrene was probably the main PAH responsible for the observed effects. The genes examined here can be used as molecular markers of endocrine-disrupting compounds, as the PAHs, present in the environment, as gene expression increases could be observed as early as after 24 h. These biomarkers can help researchers and conservationists rapidly identify the impacts of oil spills and improve mitigation before the detrimental effects of environmental stressors become irreversible.

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The Amazonian and Atlantic Forest share several organisms that are currently isolated but were continuously distributed during the Quaternary period. As both biomes are under different climatic regimes, paleoclimatic events may have modulated species' niches due to a lack of gene flow and imposing divergent selection pressure. Here, we assessed patterns of ecological niche overlap in 37 species of birds with disjunct ranges between the Amazonian and Brazilian Atlantic Forests. We performed niche overlap analysis and ecological niche modeling using four machine-learning algorithms to evaluate whether species' ecological niches evolved or remained conserved after the past South American biogeographic events. We found a low niche overlap among the same species populations in the two biomes. However, niche similarity tests showed that, for half of the species, the overlap was higher than the ones generated by our null models. These results lead us to conclude that niche conservatism was not enough to avoid ecological differentiation among species even though detected in many species. In sum, our results support the role of climatic changes in late-Pleistocene-that isolated Amazon and the Atlantic Forest-as a driving force of ecological differences among the same species populations and potential mechanism of current diversification in both regions.

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Studies in microbiology have long been mostly restricted to small spatial scales. However, recent technological advances, such as new sequencing methodologies, have ushered an era of large-scale sequencing of environmental DNA data from multiple biomes worldwide. These global datasets can now be used to explore long standing questions of microbial ecology. New methodological approaches and concepts are being developed to study such large-scale patterns in microbial communities, resulting in new perspectives that represent a significant advances for both microbiology and macroecology. Here, we identify and review important conceptual, computational, and methodological challenges and opportunities in microbial macroecology. Specifically, we discuss the challenges of handling and analyzing large amounts of microbiome data to understand taxa distribution and co-occurrence patterns. We also discuss approaches for modeling microbial communities based on environmental data, including information on biological interactions to make full use of available Big Data. Finally, we summarize the methods presented in a general approach aimed to aid microbiologists in addressing fundamental questions in microbial macroecology, including classical propositions (such as "everything is everywhere, but the environment selects") as well as applied ecological problems, such as those posed by human induced global environmental changes.

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The role of past connections between the two major South American forested biomes on current species distribution has been recognized a long time ago. Climatic oscillations that further separated these biomes have promoted parapatric speciation, in which many species had their continuous distribution split, giving rise to different but related species (i.e., different potential distributions and realized niche features). The distribution of many sister species of orchid bees follow this pattern. Here, using ecological niche models and niche analyses, we (1) tested the role of ecological niche differentiation on the divergence between sister orchid-bees (genera Eulaema and Eufriesea) from the Amazon and Atlantic forests, and (2) highlighted interesting areas for new surveys. Amazonian species occupied different realized niches than their Atlantic sister species. Conversely, species of sympatric but distantly related Eulaema bees occupied similar realized niches. Amazonian species had a wide potential distribution in South America, whereas Atlantic Forest species were more limited to the eastern coast of the continent. Additionally, we identified several areas in need of future surveys. Our results show that the realized niche of Atlantic-Amazonian sister species of orchid bees, which have been previously treated as allopatric populations of three species, had limited niche overlap and similarity. These findings agree with their current taxonomy, which treats each of those populations as distinct valid species.

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