RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Timing of initiation of kidney-replacement therapy (KRT) in critically ill patients remains controversial. The Standard versus Accelerated Initiation of Renal-Replacement Therapy in Acute Kidney Injury (STARRT-AKI) trial compared two strategies of KRT initiation (accelerated versus standard) in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury and found neutral results for 90-day all-cause mortality. Probabilistic exploration of the trial endpoints may enable greater understanding of the trial findings. We aimed to perform a reanalysis using a Bayesian framework. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of all 2927 patients randomized in multi-national STARRT-AKI trial, performed at 168 centers in 15 countries. The primary endpoint, 90-day all-cause mortality, was evaluated using hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression. A spectrum of priors includes optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic priors, along with priors informed from earlier clinical trials. Secondary endpoints (KRT-free days and hospital-free days) were assessed using zero-one inflated beta regression. RESULTS: The posterior probability of benefit comparing an accelerated versus a standard KRT initiation strategy for the primary endpoint suggested no important difference, regardless of the prior used (absolute difference of 0.13% [95% credible interval [CrI] - 3.30%; 3.40%], - 0.39% [95% CrI - 3.46%; 3.00%], and 0.64% [95% CrI - 2.53%; 3.88%] for neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic priors, respectively). There was a very low probability that the effect size was equal or larger than a consensus-defined minimal clinically important difference. Patients allocated to the accelerated strategy had a lower number of KRT-free days (median absolute difference of - 3.55 days [95% CrI - 6.38; - 0.48]), with a probability that the accelerated strategy was associated with more KRT-free days of 0.008. Hospital-free days were similar between strategies, with the accelerated strategy having a median absolute difference of 0.48 more hospital-free days (95% CrI - 1.87; 2.72) compared with the standard strategy and the probability that the accelerated strategy had more hospital-free days was 0.66. CONCLUSIONS: In a Bayesian reanalysis of the STARRT-AKI trial, we found very low probability that an accelerated strategy has clinically important benefits compared with the standard strategy. Patients receiving the accelerated strategy probably have fewer days alive and KRT-free. These findings do not support the adoption of an accelerated strategy of KRT initiation.
Assuntos
Injúria Renal Aguda , Estado Terminal , Injúria Renal Aguda/terapia , Teorema de Bayes , Estado Terminal/terapia , Humanos , Probabilidade , Terapia de Substituição Renal/métodosRESUMO
Background The epidemiology of ESRD requiring maintenance dialysis (ESRD-D) in large, diverse immigrant populations is unclear.Methods We estimated ESRD-D prevalence and incidence among immigrants in Ontario, Canada. Adults residing in Ontario in 2014 were categorized as long-term Canadian residents or immigrants according to administrative health and immigration datasets. We determined ESRD-D prevalence among these adults and calculated age-adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) comparing immigrants to long-term residents. Among those who immigrated to Ontario between 1991 and 2012, age-adjusted ESRD-D incidence was calculated by world region and country of birth, with immigrants from Western nations as the referent group.Results Among 1,902,394 immigrants and 8,860,283 long-term residents, 1700 (0.09%) and 8909 (0.10%), respectively, presented with ESRD-D. Age-adjusted ESRD-D prevalence was higher among immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa (PR, 2.17; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.84 to 2.57), Latin America and the Caribbean (PR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.90 to 2.34), South Asia (PR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.59), and East Asia and the Pacific (PR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.46). Immigrants from Somalia (PR, 4.18; 95% CI, 3.11 to 5.61), Trinidad and Tobago (PR, 2.88; 95% CI, 2.23 to 3.73), Jamaica (PR, 2.88; 95% CI, 2.40 to 3.44), Sudan (PR, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.53 to 5.27), and Guyana (PR, 2.69; 95% CI, 2.19 to 3.29) had the highest age-adjusted ESRD-D PRs relative to long-term residents. Immigrants from these countries also exhibited higher age-adjusted ESKD-D incidence relative to Western Nations immigrants.Conclusions Among immigrants in Canada, those from sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean have the highest ESRD-D risk. Tailored kidney-protective interventions should be developed for these susceptible populations.