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INTRODUCTION: Men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) in Brazil experience high rates of HIV infection. We examined the clinical and economic outcomes of implementing a pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme in these populations. METHODS: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-International model of HIV prevention and treatment to evaluate two strategies: the current standard of care (SOC) in Brazil, including universal ART access (No PrEP strategy); and the current SOC plus daily tenofovir/emtracitabine PrEP (PrEP strategy) until age 50. Mean age (31 years, SD 8.4 years), age-stratified annual HIV incidence (age ≤ 40 years: 4.3/100 PY; age > 40 years: 1.0/100 PY), PrEP effectiveness (43% HIV incidence reduction) and PrEP drug costs ($23/month) were from Brazil-based sources. The analysis focused on direct medical costs of HIV care. We measured the comparative value of PrEP in 2015 United States dollars (USD) per year of life saved (YLS). Willingness-to-pay threshold was based on Brazil's annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP; 2015: $8540 USD). RESULTS: Lifetime HIV infection risk among high-risk MSM and TGW was 50.5% with No PrEP and decreased to 40.1% with PrEP. PrEP increased per-person undiscounted (discounted) life expectancy from 36.8 (20.7) years to 41.0 (22.4) years and lifetime discounted HIV-related medical costs from $4100 to $8420, which led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2530/YLS. PrEP remained cost-effective (<1x GDP) under plausible variation in key parameters, including PrEP effectiveness and cost, initial cohort age and HIV testing frequency on/off PrEP. CONCLUSION: Daily tenofovir/emtracitabine PrEP among MSM and TGW at high risk of HIV infection in Brazil would increase life expectancy and be highly cost-effective.

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OBJECTIVE: In Brazil, universal provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been guaranteed free of charge to eligible HIV-positive patients since December 1996. We sought to quantify the survival benefits of ART attributable to this programme. METHODS: We used a previously published microsimulation model of HIV disease and treatment (CEPAC-International) and data from Brazil to estimate life expectancy increase for HIV-positive patients initiating ART in Brazil. We divided the period of 1997 to 2014 into six eras reflecting increased drug regimen efficacy, regimen availability and era-specific mean CD4 count at ART initiation. Patients were simulated first without ART and then with ART. The 2014-censored and lifetime survival benefits attributable to ART in each era were calculated as the product of the number of patients initiating ART in a given era and the increase in life expectancy attributable to ART in that era. RESULTS: In total, we estimated that 598,741 individuals initiated ART. Projected life expectancy increased from 2.7, 3.3, 4.1, 4.9, 5.5 and 7.1 years without ART to 11.0, 17.5, 20.7, 23.0, 25.3, and 27.0 years with ART in Eras 1 through 6, respectively. Of the total projected lifetime survival benefit of 9.3 million life-years, 16% (or 1.5 million life-years) has been realized as of December 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of ART through a national programme has led to dramatic survival benefits in Brazil, the majority of which are still to be realized. Improvements in initial and subsequent ART regimens and higher CD4 counts at ART initiation have contributed to these increasing benefits.

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OBJECTIVE: HIV genotype-resistance testing can help identify more effective antiretroviral treatment (ART) regimens for patients, substantially increasing the likelihood of viral suppression and immune recovery. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of genotype-resistance testing before first-line ART initiation in Brazil. DESIGN: We used a previously published microsimulation model of HIV disease (CEPAC-International) and data from Brazil to compare the clinical impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of initial genotype testing (Genotype) with no initial genotype testing (No genotype). METHODS: Model parameters were derived from the HIV Clinical Cohort at the Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute and from published data, using Brazilian sources whenever possible. Baseline patient characteristics included 69% male, mean age of 36 years (SD, 10 years), mean CD4 count of 347 per microliter (SD, 300/µL) at ART initiation, annual ART costs from 2012 US $1400 to US $13,400, genotype test cost of US $230, and primary resistance prevalence of 4.4%. Life expectancy and costs were discounted 3% per year. Genotype was defined as "cost-effective" compared with No Genotype if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than 3 times the 2012 Brazilian per capita GDP of US $12,300. RESULTS: Compared with No genotype, Genotype increased life expectancy from 18.45 to 18.47 years and reduced lifetime cost from US $45,000 to $44,770; thus, in the base case, Genotype was cost saving. Genotype was cost-effective at primary resistance prevalence as low as 1.4% and remained cost-effective when subsequent-line ART costs decreased to 30% of baseline value. Cost-inefficient results were observed only when simultaneously holding multiple parameters to extremes of their plausible ranges. CONCLUSIONS: Genotype-resistance testing in ART-naive individuals in Brazil will improve survival and decrease costs and should be incorporated into HIV treatment guidelines in Brazil.

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BACKGROUND: While Brazil has had a long-standing policy of free access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all in need, the epidemiological impact of ART on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA suppression in this middle-income country has not been well evaluated. We estimate first-line ART effectiveness in a large Brazilian cohort and examine the socio-demographic, behavioral, clinical and structural factors associated with virologic suppression. METHODS: Virologic suppression on first-line ART at 6, 12, and 24 months from start of ART was defined as having a viral load measurement ≤400 copies/mL without drug class modification and/or discontinuation. Drug class modification and/or discontinuation were defined based on the class of a particular drug. Quasi-Poisson regression was used to quantify the association of factors with virologic suppression. RESULTS: From January 2000 through June 2010, 1311 patients started first-line ART; 987 (75%) patients used NNRTI-based regimens. Virologic suppression was achieved by 77%, 76% and 68% of patients at 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively. Factors associated with virologic suppression at 12 months were: >8 years of formal education (compared to <4 years, risk ratio (RR) 1.13, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.03-1.24), starting ART in 2005-2010 (compared to 2000-2004, RR 1.25 95% CI 1.15-1.35), and clinical trial participation (compared to no participation, RR 1.08 95% CI 1.01-1.16). Also at 12 months, women showed less virologic suppression compared to heterosexual men (RR 0.90 95% CI 0.82-0.99). For the 24-month endpoint, in addition to higher education, starting ART in the later period, and clinical trial participation, older age and an NNRTI-based regimen were also independently associated with virologic suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that in Brazil, a middle-income country with free access to treatment, over three-quarters of patients receiving routine care reached virologic suppression on first-line ART by the end of the first year. Higher education, more recent ART initiation and clinical trial participation were associated with improved outcomes both for the 12-month and the 24-month endpoints, suggesting that further studies are needed to understand what aspects relating to these factors lead to higher virologic suppression.