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Background: Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region. Results: The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region. Conclusion: In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.

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Building good health systems is an important objective for policy makers in any country. Developing countries which are just starting out on their journeys need to do this by using their limited resources in the best way possible. The total health expenditure of a country exerts a significant influence on its health outcomes but, given the well-understood failures of price-based market-mechanisms, countries that spend the most money do not necessarily end-up building the best health systems. To help developing country policy makers gain a deeper insight into what factors matter, in this study the contribution of per-capita total, out-of-pocket, and pooled health expenditures, to the cross-country variation in Disability Adjusted Life Years lost per 100,000 population (DALY Rates), a summary measure of health outcomes, is estimated. The country-specific residuals from these analyses are then examined to understand the sources of the rest of the variation. The study finds that these measures are able to explain between 40 and 50% of the variation in the DALY Rates with percentage increases in per-capita out-of-pocket and pooled expenditures being associated with improvements in DALY Rates of about 0.06% and 0.095%, respectively. This suggests that while increases in per-capita total health expenditures do matter, moving them away from out-of-pocket to pooled has the potential to produce material improvements in DALY Rates, and that taken together these financial parameters are able to explain only about half the cross-country variation in DALY Rates. The analysis of the residuals from these regressions finds that while there may be a minimum level of per-capita total health expenditures (> $100) which needs to be crossed for a health system to perform (Bangladesh being a clear and sole exception), it is possible for countries to perform very well even at very low levels of these expenditures. Colombia, Thailand Honduras, Peru, Nicaragua, Jordan, Sri Lanka, and the Krygyz Republic, are examples of countries which have demonstrated this. It is also apparent from the analysis that while very high rates (> 75%) of pooling are essential to build truly high performing health systems (with DALYRates < 20, 000), a high level of pooling on its own is insufficient to deliver strong health outcomes, and also that even at lower levels of pooling it is possible for countries to out-perform their peers. This is apparent from the examples of Ecuador, Mexico, Honduras, Malaysia, Vietnam, Kyrgyz Republic, and Sri Lanka, which are all doing very well despite having OOP% in the region of 40-60%. The analysis of residuals also suggests that while pooling (in any form) is definitely beneficial, countries with single payer systems are perhaps more effective than those with multiple payers perhaps because, despite their best efforts, they have insufficient market power over customers and providers to adequately manage the pulls and pressures of market forces. It can also be seen that countries and regions such as Honduras, Peru, Nicaragua, Jordan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Kerala, and the Kyrgyz Republic, despite their modest levels of per-capita total health expenditures have delivered attractive DALY Rates on account of their consistent prioritization of public-health interventions such as near 100% vaccine coverage levels and strong control of infectious diseases. Additionally, countries such as Turkey, Colombia, Costa Rica, Thailand, Peru, Nicaragua, and Jordan, have all delivered low DALY Rates despite modest levels of per-capita total health expenditures on account of their emphasis on primary care. While, as can be seen from the discussion, several valuable conclusions can be drawn from this kind of analysis, the evolution of health systems is a complex journey, driven by multiple local factors, and a multi-country cross-sectional study of the type attempted here runs the risk of glossing over them. The study attempts to address these limitations by being parsimonious and simple in its approach toward specifying its quantitative models, and validating its conclusions by looking deeper into country contexts.

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Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato is a globally prevalent zoonotic parasitic cestode leading to cystic echinococcosis (CE) in both humans and sheep with both medical and financial impacts, whose reduction requires the application of a One Health approach to its control. Regarding the animal health component of this approach, lack of accurate and practical diagnostics in livestock impedes the assessment of disease burden and the implementation and evaluation of control strategies. We use of a Bayesian Latent Class Analysis (LCA) model to estimate ovine CE prevalence in sheep samples from the Río Negro province of Argentina accounting for uncertainty in the diagnostics. We use model outputs to evaluate the performance of a novel recombinant B8/2 antigen B subunit (rEgAgB8/2) indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting E. granulosus in sheep. Necropsy (as a partial gold standard), western blot (WB) and ELISA diagnostic data were collected from 79 sheep within two Río Negro slaughterhouses, and used to estimate individual infection status (assigned as a latent variable within the model). Using the model outputs, the performance of the novel ELISA at both individual and flock levels was evaluated, respectively, using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and simulating a range of sample sizes and prevalence levels within hypothetical flocks. The estimated (mean) prevalence of ovine CE was 27.5% (95%Bayesian credible interval (95%BCI): 13.8%-58.9%) within the sample population. At the individual level, the ELISA had a mean sensitivity and specificity of 55% (95%BCI: 46%-68%) and 68% (95%BCI: 63%-92%), respectively, at an optimal optical density (OD) threshold of 0.378. At the flock level, the ELISA had an 80% probability of correctly classifying infection at an optimal cut-off threshold of 0.496. These results suggest that the novel ELISA could play a useful role as a flock-level diagnostic for CE surveillance in the region, supplementing surveillance activities in the human population and thus strengthening a One Health approach. Importantly, selection of ELISA cut-off threshold values must be tailored according to the epidemiological situation.

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OBJECTIVES: To describe Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) cases and estimate the burden of the disease in Brazil between 2016 and 2017. METHODS: The first stage of this study consisted of a descriptive epidemiological study with estimations of incidence, mortality and case-fatality rates for each Brazilian state. The second stage provided estimates of the disease burden using DALY, an indicator that aggregates measures of morbidity (years lived with disability - YLD) and mortality (years of life lost - YLL) into a single value. RESULTS: In Brazil, the incidence rate in 2016 was 114.70 per 100,000 inhabitants, while the mortality rate was 0.15 per 100,000, for a case-fatality rate of 0.13%. In 2017, these figures were 87.59 and 0.12 per 100,000 inhabitants and 0.14%, respectively. The estimated CHIKF burden for Brazil in 2016 was 77,422.61 DALY or 0.3757 per 1000 inhabitants. In 2016, the YLL share of DALY was 10.04%, with YLD accounting for the remaining 89.96%. In 2017, the estimated burden was 59,307.59 DALY or 0.2856 per 1000 inhabitants, with YLL accounting for 9.65% of the total and YLD for 90.35%. CONCLUSION: CHIKF causes a significant disease burden in Brazil. The chronic phase of CHIKF is responsible for the largest portion of DALY. Deaths from CHIKF are a significant component of the disease burden, with YLL accounting for approximately 10% of the total DALY value.

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ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollutants is associated with hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases and premature deaths. OBJECTIVE: To estimate years of life lost (YLL) due to premature deaths and their financial costs. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological time-series study carried out in São José dos Campos, Brazil, in 2016. METHODS: Data on deaths among residents of this city in 2016 were assessed to estimate the financial cost of premature deaths associated with air pollution. The diagnoses studied were ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure and cerebrovascular disease, according to YLL. The fractions attributable to deaths associated with air pollutant exposure and to each potential year of life lost were calculated using negative binomial regression with lags of 0-7 days between exposure and outcome. Nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter (PM10) and ozone concentrations were included in the model and adjusted for temperature, humidity and seasonality. RESULTS: Exposure to particulate matter was significant at lag 3 days. There were 2177 hospitalizations over the study period, with 201 deaths (9.2%). Premature deaths led to 2035.69 years of life lost. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 concentrations was correlated with 8.0% of the hospitalizations, which corresponded to 152.67 YLL (81.67 for males and 71.00 for females). The cost generated was approximately US$ 9.1 million in 2016. CONCLUSION: In this first study conducted in a medium-sized Brazilian city, using the YLL methodology, we identified an excess expense attributable to air pollution.

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease which contributes to the mortality and morbidity significantly in India and Brazil. This study was planned to compare the trends of incidence, prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of VL burden in India and Brazil from 1990 to 2019 using Global burden of disease study (GBD) data. The metrics are presented as age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants with their respective uncertainty intervals (95% UI) and relative percentages of change. The decline in the Incidence rate is more in case of India (16.82 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.60 cases in 2019) as compared to Brazil (3.12 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.65 cases in 2019). The annualized rate of change in number of prevalent cases for India is - 0.95 (95% UI - 0.98 to - 0.91) whereas for Brazil it is - 0.06 (95% UI - 0.41 to 0.52). The annualized rate of change in number of DALY for India is - 0.94 (95% UI - 0.96 to - 0.92) whereas for Brazil it is - 0.09 (95% UI - 0.25 to 0.28). The annualized rate of change in number of deaths for India is - 0.93 (95% UI - 0.95 to - 0.92) whereas for Brazil it is increasing i.e. 0.04 (95% UI - 0.12 to 0.51). India achieves significant reduction in the age standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of VL as compared to Brazil during the period of 1990 to 2019. A multi-centric study is required to assess bottleneck in the existing strategies of VLSCP in Brazil.

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Resumo Em 2020, completamos 30 anos desde a publicação das Leis Orgânicas do Sistema Único de Saúde. Desde então, a mudança no perfil de morbimortalidade tem desafiado a gestão, para que o serviço de saúde consiga atender à grande heterogeneidade dos quase seis mil municípios. Para isso, é necessário monitorar os principais indicadores do país. O objetivo do presente estudo foi apresentar uma visão geral das tendências de mortalidade e morbidade no Brasil entre 1990 e 2019. Utilizamos os dados do Estudo de Carga Global de Doenças para descrever a morbimortalidade pelos grandes grupos (doenças infecciosas, doenças crônicas e causas externas), segundo sexo e grupos etários. Há redução da morbimortalidade no período, independente do grupo de causa ou faixa etária, com variada diferença entre sexo de acordo com o grupo de causas. A contribuição das doenças crônicas é crescente com a progressão da idade, com diferença substancial segundo o sexo. As curvas de mortalidade e de anos perdidos por incapacidade possuem padrão típico, com destaque ao padrão diferenciado para curvas de homens por causas externas, com marcada sobremortalidade em idades jovens. A tendência ratifica o declínio dos indicadores de forma linear no período.

Abstract In 2020, the 30th anniversary of the publication of the Organic Laws of the Unified Health System was celebrated. Since then, the change in the profile of morbidity and mortality has been a challenge to management to ensure that the health services can attend the significant heterogeneity of approximately 6,000 municipalities. To achieve this, it is necessary to monitor the leading indicators of the country. The scope of this study was to present an overview of trends in mortality and morbidity in Brazil between 1990 and 2019. Data from the Study on the Global Burden of Disease was used to describe morbidity and mortality by major groupings (infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and external causes), according to gender and age groups. There was a reduction in morbidity and mortality in the period, irrespective of the cause or age group, albeit with a varied difference between the sexes depending on the cause. The contribution of chronic diseases increases with age, with a marked difference according to gender. The curves for mortality and years lost due to disability have a typical profile, with a different pattern of curves for men due to external causes, with marked excess mortality at young ages. The trend confirms the decline of indicators in a linear manner over the period.

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Road injuries have been a major cause of premature mortality and disability in Mexico. The objective of this paper is to report the findings from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD-2019) on road injuries in Mexico at a national and subnational scale from 1990 to 2019, and to assess the association between road injury burden and the socio-demographic index. Following the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study road injury mortality, premature mortality, the years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are reported. While the number of deaths from road injuries increased between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized mortality rates declined. Pedestrian road injuries and motor vehicle road injuries accounted for 8 of every 10 deaths from road injury in 2019. Road injury mortality and DALY rates decreased nationally, but stagnated since 2011. The road injury burden was higher for men in all age groups. Pedestrian and motor vehicle road injuries caused the highest DALY rate in both males and females. There was no significant association between the SDI and the road injury age-standardized DALY rates. This study presents a comprehensive report of road injury burden of disease in Mexico. Mexico continues to have an incomplete, fragmented and poorly enforced legislative framework, with a large diversity between its 32 states. Thus, an integrated legislative and juridical effort is needed to continue reducing the road injury disease burden, which is tailored for specific age groups, vulnerable road users and high-burden areas.

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