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Modeling of watershed Ecosystem Services (ES) processes has increased greatly in recent years, potentially improving environmental management and decision-making by describing the value of nature. ES models may be sensitive to different conditions and, therefore, should ideally be validated against observed data for their use as a decision-support instrument. However, outcomes from such ES modeling are barely validated, making it difficult to assess uncertainties associated with the modeling and justify their actual usefulness to develop generalizable management recommendations. This study proposes a framework for the systematic validation of one of such tools, the InVEST Nutrient Delivery Model (NDR) for nutrient retention estimates. The framework is divided into three stages: 1) running the NDR model inputs, processes, and outputs; 2) building a long-term reference dataset from open access water quality observations; and 3) using the reference data for model calibration and validation. We applied this framework to twenty watersheds in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, where data availability resembles thar of watersheds across the United States. Long-term water quality data from monitoring stations facilitated model calibration and validation. Our framework provided a reproducible method to linking the vast monitoring network in the U.S. and its territories for evaluating the InVEST's NDR model performance. Beyond the framework development, this study found that the InVEST NDR model explained 62.7 % and 79.3 % of the variance in the total nitrogen and total phosphorus between 2000 and 2022, respectively, supporting the suitability of the model for watershed scale ecosystem services assessment. The findings can also serve as a reference to support the use of InVEST for other locations in the tropics without publically available monitoring data.

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Climate change will substantially increase extreme rainfall events, especially in the Tropics, enhancing flood risks. Such imminent risks require climate adaptation strategies to endure extreme rainfall and increase drainage systems. Here, we evaluate the potential of nature-based solutions by using an ecosystem service modeling approach, evaluating the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risks in a large urban area and with a real-world land recovery plan. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four different land recovery scenarios and associated co-benefits, based on a gradient increase in area recovered and cost of implementation. Although the scenarios reveal increasing flood risk reduction and co-benefits along with greater proportion of land recovery, the most cost-effective scenario was the one with an intermediate land recovery where 30% of the study area would be reforested. We emphasize the striking benefits of nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction in cities, considering landscape scale and stakeholders' needs.

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The demand for mountain water resources is increasing, and their availability is threatened by climate change, emphasizing the urgency for effective protection and management. The upper Sali-Dulce watershed holds vital significance as it contributes the majority of the Sali-Dulce water resources, supporting a densely populated dry region in Northwestern Argentina, covering an area of 24,217 km2. However, the potential impact of climate change and land use/land cover change on water yield in this watershed remains uncertain. This study employs the InVEST Annual Water Yield model to analyze the average water yield in the watershed and evaluate its potential changes under future scenarios of climate and land use/land cover change. InVEST was calibrated using data from multiple river gauges located across the watershed, indicating satisfactory performance (R2 = 0.751, p-value = 0.0054). Precipitation and evapotranspiration were the most important variables explaining water yield in the area, followed by land use. Water yield showed a notable concentration in the montane area with 40% of the watershed accounting for 80% of the water yield, underscoring the importance of conserving natural land cover in this critical zone. Climate change scenarios project an increase in water yield ranging from 21 to 75%, while the effects of land cover change scenarios on water yield vary, with reforestation scenarios leading to reductions of up to 15% and expansions in non-irrigated agriculture resulting in increases of up to 40%. Additionally, water yield distribution may become more concentrated or dispersed, largely dependent on the type of land cover. The combined scenarios highlight the pivotal role of land cover in adapting to climate change. Our findings provide valuable insights for designing future studies and developing policies aimed at implementing effective adaptation strategies to climate change within the Salí-Dulce watershed.

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Gullies are significant contributors to soil degradation in several regions of Brazil, including Minas Gerais, where erosion processes have caused soil loss. The characterization of erosion processes is crucial for the application of measures for recovering degraded areas and reducing erosion impacts. This study models soil loss with the use of InVEST software and assesses the impact of three different scenarios, namely (1) implementation of soil conservation practices and replacement of pasture areas for temporary agriculture, (2) reforestation of pasture areas, and (3) preservation of ciliary forests. Soil loss, sediment exportation, retention, and deposition for the present scenario (2019), as well as the three aforementioned hypothetical scenarios, were estimated. In the present scenario, the estimated mean annual soil loss was 2.75 t/ha year, with 1,449.54 t/year sediment exportation, 9,042.13 t/year retention, and 1,449.54 t/year deposition. The model predicted scenario 1 would result in 2.23 t/ha year mean annual soil loss, 1,300.59 t/year sediment exportation, 9,191.08 t/year retention, and 11,755.76 t/year deposition. Scenario 2 showed 1.92 t/ha year mean annual soil loss, 1,046.69 t/year sediment exportation, 9,444.98 t/year retention, and 10,229.77 t/year deposition, whereas the results for scenario 3 were 2.36 t/ha year, 616.65 t/year, 9,862.06 t/year, and 13,206.47 t/year, respectively. Reforestation and preservation of ciliary forests, along with soil conservation practices, were effective measures for reducing soil loss. Such findings are valuable for the management of areas degraded by erosion processes.

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In recent years, the Cerrado biome in Brazil (Brazilian savannah) has faced severe environmental problems due to abrupt changes in land use/cover (LUC), causing increased soil loss, sediment yield and water turbidity. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the impacts of soil loss and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) over the last 30 years to simulate future scenarios of soil losses from 2050 to 2100 and to investigate an episode of sediment delivery that occurred in the Rio da Prata Basin (RPB) in 2018. In this study, the following were used: an estimation of soil losses for 1986, 1999, 2007 and 2016 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an estimation of SDR, sediment export and sediment deposition using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, an association of RUSLE factor C to LUC data for 2050 and 2100 based on the CA-Markov hybrid model, and an estimation of future soil erosion scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The results show that over the last 30 years (1986-2016), there has been a reduction in the areas of highly intense and severe degrees. Future soil erosion scenarios (2050-2100) showed a 13.84% increase in areas of soil loss >10 Mg ha-1 year-1. The results highlighted the importance of assessing the impacts of LUC changes on soil erosion and the export of sediments to agricultural watersheds in the RPB, one of the best ecotourism destinations in Brazil. In addition, the increase in soil loss in the region intensified sediment yield events and increased water turbidity. Furthermore, riparian vegetation, although preserved, was not able to protect the watercourse, showing that it is essential to adopt the best management practices in the agricultural production areas of the basin, especially where ramps are extensive or the slope is greater than 2%, to reduce the runoff velocity and control the movement of sediments on the surface towards the drainage canals. The results of this study are useful for drawing up a soil and water conservation plan for the sustainable production of agriculture and maintenance of ecosystem services in the region.

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A common objective of watershed management programs is to secure water supply, especially during the dry season. To develop such programs in contexts of low data and resource availability, program managers need tools to understand the effect of landscape management on the seasonal water balance. However, the performance of simple, parsimonious models is poorly understood. Here, we examine the behavior of a geospatial tool, developed to map monthly water budgets and baseflow contributions and forming part of the InVEST (integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs) software suite. The model uses monthly climate, topography, and land-use data to compute spatial indices of groundwater recharge, baseflow, and quickflow. We illustrate the model application in two large basins in Peru and Myanmar, where we compare results with observed data and alternative hydrologic models. We show that the spatial distribution of baseflow contributions correlated well with an established model in the Peruvian basin (r2 = 0.81 at the parcel scale). In Myanmar, the model shows an overall satisfactory performance for representing month to month variation (Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency 0.6-0.8); however, errors are scale dependent highlighting limitations in representing processes in large basins. Our study highlights modeling challenges, in particular trade-offs between model complexity and accuracy, and illustrates the role that parsimonious models can play to support watershed management programs.

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Investments in watershed services programs hold the promise to protect and restore ecosystems and water resources. The design and implementation of such programs is often accompanied by hydrologic modeling and monitoring, although the role of hydrologic information in meeting the needs of program managers remains unclear. In the Camboriú watershed, Brazil, we explored the value of hydrologic modeling and monitoring with respect to two dimensions: scientific credibility and use of generated knowledge in the design, implementation, and evaluation of the watershed management program. We used a combination of semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and hydrologic modeling under various levels of data availability to examine when improved models and data availability might build credibility and provide more useful information for decision makers. We found that hydrologic information was not actually used for the detailed design, but rather contributed to broad-scale support of the program by increasing scientific credibility. Model sophistication and data availability improved the credibility of hydrologic information but did not affect actual decisions related to program design. Hydrologic monitoring data were critical for model calibration, and high-resolution land use and land cover data, obtained via remote sensing, affected some model outputs which were not used to design the program. Our study suggests that identifying how hydrologic data will inform decision making should guide the level of effort used in hydrologic modeling and monitoring.

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Abstract: The lack of implementation of well-designed public policies aimed at the conservation of natural ecosystems has resulted, at a global level, in the decline of ecosystem functioning and, consequently, of the contributions they make to people. The poor enforcement of important environmental legislation in Brazil - for instance, the "Atlantic Forest Law" (Law n.11.428/2006) and the "Forest Code" (Law n.12.651/2012) - could compromise the overall maintenance of ecosystems and the services they provide. To explore the implications of different levels of federal laws' enforcement within the Cantareira System Protected Area (PA) - a PA in southeastern Brazil that provides fresh water for 47% of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area -, we developed a conceptual framework to identify indirect and direct drives of biodiversity and ecosystem changes. We also projected four land-use scenarios to 2050 to test the effects of deforestation control and forest restoration practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services maintenance: the "business-as-usual" scenario (BAU), which assumes that all trends in land-use cover changes observed in the past will continue in the future, and three alternative exploratory scenarios considering the Atlantic Forest Law implementation, the partial implementation of the Forest Code and the full implementation of the Forest Code. Using the land-use maps generated for each scenario, we assessed the impacts of land-use changes on biodiversity conservation and soil retention. Our results revealed all alternative scenarios could increase biodiversity conservation (by 7%; 12%; and 12%, respectively), reduce soil loss (by 24.70%; 34.70%; and 38.12%, respectively) and sediment exportation to water (by 27.47%; 55.06%; and 59.28%, respectively), when compared to the BAU scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of restoring and conserving native vegetation for the maintenance and improvement of biodiversity conservation and for the provision of ecosystem services.

Resumo: A falta de implementação de políticas públicas voltadas para a conservação ambiental, tem resultado, em nível global, em impactos sobre a biodiversidade e o funcionamento dos ecossistemas e, consequentemente, na contribuição da natureza para as pessoas. A aplicação inadequada de importantes de leis ambientais no Brasil, como por exemplo, a "Lei da Mata Atlântica" (Lei nº 11.428 / 2006) e o "Código Florestal" (Lei nº 12.651 / 2012), podem comprometer a manutenção dos ecossistemas e dos serviços que eles fornecem. Neste estudo, nós desenvolvemos um mapa conceitual que busca identificar causas diretas e indiretas de mudanças - agentes de mudança - na biodiversidade e na provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados ao solo e à água, na Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) Sistema Cantareira. A APA Sistema Cantareira, localizada no sudeste do Brasil, fornece água potável para 47% da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Além da abordagem conceitual, nós projetamos quatro cenários de mudança no uso da terra para o ano de 2050, a fim de analisar o impacto de diferentes níveis de aplicação de leis federais: o cenário "business-as-usual" (BAU), que pressupõe que as tendências na mudança de uso da terra observadas no passado continuarão no futuro, e três cenários alternativos, considerando a implementação da Lei da Mata Atlântica, a implementação parcial do Código Florestal e a implementação completa do Código Florestal. A partir dos mapas de uso da terra gerados, avaliamos os impactos de cada cenário na conservação da biodiversidade, na retenção de solos e na exportação de sedimentos para os corpos d'água. Nossos resultados mostraram que os três cenários alternativos podem aumentar a conservação da biodiversidade (em 7%; 12%; e 12%, respectivamente), reduzir a perda de solo (em 24,70%; 34,70%; e 38,12%, respectivamente) e reduzir a exportação de sedimentos para a água (em 27,47 %; 55,06%; e 59,28%, respectivamente), quando comparados ao cenário BAU. Este estudo destaca a importância da restauração e conservação da vegetação nativa para a manutenção da biodiversidade e melhoria na provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados ao solo e à água, em uma região estratégica para o abastecimento de água no Brasil.

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Climate change can have marked effects on ecosystem service (ES) provision in the Andes, particularly in peri-urban areas. In addition to global-change related processes, cumulative effects such as changing socio-political dynamics, environmental policies, and conflicts are also changing type and magnitude of land use-land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Colombian Andes. Studies in the region have investigated the effects of LULC change, deforestation and extreme climatic events on the hydrology of watersheds and carbon sequestration. Yet, less is known on how the cumulative effects of climate and LULC changes will drive water yield and carbon sequestration. To investigate these cumulative effects, we study two different watersheds near Bogota, Colombia and their ES for the period 2016-2046. We use IPCC-LULC scenarios, expert elicitation, hydro-meteorological data, and integrated modelling using temporal LULC change and ESs valuation models to parse out effects of LULC versus climate change on two representative ESs. Our results show forest and shrublands remain stable during the analysis period. However, urban conversion of agricultural pastures is substantial. We found that climate change scenarios had greater effect on water yield and supply than LULC scenarios in both watersheds. However, carbon sequestration was greater in rural forest and shrubland areas farther from Bogota. In contrast to current land use zoning being promoted by local elected officials, our findings indicate that land-use development and policies in near-urban basins need to minimize urbanization in agriculture and pasture LULCs, as these can have substantial effects on water yield. Similarly, land use polices in ex-urban areas need to conserve forested and shrubland areas to maximize their carbon offset potential. Collectively, our results highlight the need to incorporate climate change conditions in decision making and land use planning processes, in order to maintain the capacity of ecosystems, both urban and rural, to provide services to society.

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Recent calls for ocean planning envision informed management of social and ecological systems to sustain delivery of ecosystem services to people. However, until now, no coastal and marine planning process has applied an ecosystem-services framework to understand how human activities affect the flow of benefits, to create scenarios, and to design a management plan. We developed models that quantify services provided by corals, mangroves, and seagrasses. We used these models within an extensive engagement process to design a national spatial plan for Belize's coastal zone. Through iteration of modeling and stakeholder engagement, we developed a preferred plan, currently under formal consideration by the Belizean government. Our results suggest that the preferred plan will lead to greater returns from coastal protection and tourism than outcomes from scenarios oriented toward achieving either conservation or development goals. The plan will also reduce impacts to coastal habitat and increase revenues from lobster fishing relative to current management. By accounting for spatial variation in the impacts of coastal and ocean activities on benefits that ecosystems provide to people, our models allowed stakeholders and policymakers to refine zones of human use. The final version of the preferred plan improved expected coastal protection by >25% and more than doubled the revenue from fishing, compared with earlier versions based on stakeholder preferences alone. Including outcomes in terms of ecosystem-service supply and value allowed for explicit consideration of multiple benefits from oceans and coasts that typically are evaluated separately in management decisions.

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