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Objective: To assess the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS3) prognostic score performance across different body mass index categories. Methods: A retrospective cohort study in a general ICU in Brazil. A secondary analysis of medical records was performed with clinical and epidemiological data. Patients were stratified according to their body mass index (BMI) category, and a binary logistic regression was then performed to identify factors independently associated with mortality. SAPS3 accuracy was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. A modified Kaplan-Meyer plot was employed to evaluate death probability according to BMI. ICU mortality was evaluated as the primary outcome. Results: A total of 2,179 patients (mean age of 67.9 years and female predominance (53.1%)) were enrolled. SAPS3 was found accurate in all groups except in the underweight (AUC: 0.694 95% CI 0.616-0.773; HL = 0.042). The patients in the underweight group tended to be older, have longer hospital stay, have worse functional status, and have a higher value on prognostic scores. After the adjustments, no statistically significant difference between the BMI groups was noted in relation to mortality, except for the low weight that presented a likelihood of death of 3.50 (95% CI, 1.43-8.58, p = 0.006). Conclusion: This research showed that SAPS3 had poor accuracy in predicting ICU mortality in underweight patients. This group was shown to be an independent risk factor for worse clinical outcomes.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Acute physiologic derangements and multiple organ dysfunction are common after subarachnoid hemorrhage. We aimed to evaluate the simplified acute physiology score 3 (SAPS-3) and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter cohort of SAH patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from 45 ICUs in Brazil, during 2014 and 2015. Patients admitted with non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) were included. Clinical and outcome data were retrieved from an electronic ICU quality registry. SAPS-3 and SOFA scores, without the neurological components (i.e., nSAPS-3 and nSOFA, respectively) were recorded, as well as the World Federation of Neurological Surgeons (WFNS) scale. We used multilevel logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We evaluated performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), as well as calibration belts and precision-recall plots. RESULTS: The study included 997 patients, from which 426 (43%) had poor clinical grade (WFNS 4 or 5) and in-hospital mortality was 34%. Median nSAPS-3 and nSOFA score at admission were 46 (IQR: 38-55) and 2 (0-5), respectively. Non-survivors were older, had higher nSAPS-3 and nSOFA, and more often poor grade. After adjustment for age, poor grade and withdrawal of life sustaining therapies, multivariable analysis identified nSAPS-3 and nSOFA score as independent clinical predictors of in-hospital mortality. The AUROC curve that included nSAPS-3 and nSOFA scores significantly improved the already good discrimination and calibration of age and WFNS to predict in-hospital mortality (AUROC: 0.89 for the full final model vs. 0.85 for age and WFNS; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: nSAPS-3 and nSOFA scores were independently associated with in-hospital mortality after SAH. The addition of these scores improved early prediction of hospital mortality in our cohort and should be integrated to other specific prognostic indices in the early assessment of SAH.

Assuntos

Hemorragia Subaracnóidea , Estudos de Coortes , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Insuficiência de Múltiplos Órgãos , Prognóstico , Curva ROC , Estudos Retrospectivos , Hemorragia Subaracnóidea/terapia

RESUMO

CONTEXT: The performance of a prognostic score must be evaluated prior to being used. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive ability of hospital mortality of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) score in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs). AIMS: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the SAPS 3 score predictive ability of hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to ICU. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: This study was conducted as a prospective cohort, in two mixed ICUs. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two hundred and eleven elderly patients were included. INTERVENTIONS: None. We compared the predictive accuracy of SAPS 3 measured at the first hour at ICU and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) measured with the worst values in the first 24 h at ICU. The patients were followed until hospital discharge. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Evaluation of discrimination through area under curve receiver operating characteristic (aROC) and calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test. RESULTS: The median age was 68 years. The hospital mortality rate was 35.54%. The mean value of SAPS 3 was 62.54 ± 12.51 and APACHE II was 17.46 ± 6.77. The mortality predicted by APACHE II was 24.98 ± 19.96 and for standard SAPS 3 equation 41.18 ± 22.34. The discrimination for SAPS 3 model was aROC = 0.68 (0.62-0.75) and to APACHE II aROC = 0.70 (0.63-0.78). Calibration: APACHE II with HL 10.127 P = 0.26, and standard SAPS 3 equation HL 7.204 P = 0.51. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the prognostic model of SAPS 3 was not found to be accurate in predicting mortality in geriatric patients requiring ICU admission.