Assuntos

RESUMO

ABSTRACT Objective. To calculate the economic impact of violence across Mexico in 2021 and project costs for 2021-2030. Methods. Incidence data was obtained from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, (SESNSP), National Population Council (CONAPO), National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), and the National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE). Our model incorporates incidence estimates of the costs of events associated with violence (e.g., homicides, hospitalizations, rapes, extortions, robbery, etc). Results. The economic impact of crime and violence in Mexico for the year 2021 has been estimated at about $192 billion US dollars, which corresponds to 14.6% of the national GDP. By reducing violence 50% by 2030, we estimate savings of at least US$110 billion dollars. This represents a saving of US$1 376 372 for each company and more than US$66 771 for each Mexican. Conclusion. Violence and homicides have become one of the most pressing public health and economic concerns for their effect on health, development, and economic growth. Due to low cost and high impact, prevention is the most efficient way to respond to crime and violence while also being an essential component of sustainable strategies aimed at improving citizen security.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Calcular el impacto económico de la violencia en el 2021 en todo México y proyectar sus costos para el período 2021-2030. Métodos. Los datos de incidencia se obtuvieron del Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNSP), el Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), y la Encuesta Nacional de Victimización y Percepción sobre Seguridad Pública (ENVIPE). Nuestro modelo incorpora estimaciones de la incidencia de los costos de los eventos asociados a la violencia (por ejemplo, homicidios, hospitalizaciones, violaciones, extorsiones, robos, etc.) Resultados. Se ha estimado que el impacto económico del delito y la violencia en México para el año 2021 es de alrededor de US$ 192 000 millones de dólares estadounidenses, lo que corresponde al 14,6% del PIB nacional. Estimamos que una reducción del 50% de la violencia para el 2030 supondría un ahorro de al menos US$110 000 millones. Esto representa un ahorro de US$1 376 372 para cada empresa y de más de US$66 771 para cada mexicano. Conclusión. La violencia y los homicidios se han convertido en una de las preocupaciones económicas y de salud pública más apremiantes por su efecto sobre la salud, el desarrollo y el crecimiento económico. Debido a su bajo costo y alto impacto, la prevención es la forma más eficiente de responder al delito y la violencia, al tiempo que es un componente esencial de las estrategias sostenibles dirigidas a mejorar la seguridad ciudadana.

RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar o impacto econômico da violência no México em 2021 e fazer a projeção de custos para o período 2021-2030. Métodos. Os dados de incidência da violência no país foram obtidos da Secretaria Executiva do Sistema Nacional de Segurança Pública (SESNSP), do Conselho Nacional de População (CONAPO), do Instituto Nacional de Estatística e Geografia (INEGI) e da Pesquisa Nacional de Vitimização e Percepção de Segurança Pública (ENVIPE). O modelo incorpora estimativas de incidência de custos de eventos associados à violência (como homicídios, internações hospitalares, estupros, extorsões e roubos). Resultados. O impacto econômico da criminalidade e da violência no México foi estimado em torno de US$192 bilhões em 2021, o que equivale a 14,6% do produto interno bruto (PIB) nacional. Estima-se que reduzir a violência em 50% até 2030 pode resultar em uma economia de US$ 110 bilhões ou mais, o que representa uma redução de gastos de US$1 376 372 para cada empresa e de mais de US$66 771 para cada cidadão do México. Conclusão. A violência e os homicídios são um dos problemas econômicos e de saúde pública mais prementes por suas consequências à saúde, ao desenvolvimento e ao crescimento econômico do país. Devido ao seu baixo custo e alto impacto, a prevenção é a forma mais eficiente de combater a criminalidade e a violência, além de ser um componente essencial de qualquer estratégia sustentável para aumentar a segurança da população.

Assuntos

RESUMO

A criminalidade figura entre as maiores preocupações da sociedade contemporânea, que tem ficado cada vez mais apreensiva com a crescente insegurança que a circunda. Em sintonia com essa inquietação social, pesquisadores de diferentes áreas do conhecimento têm diligenciado no sentido de lançar luz sobre as causas da delinquência. O presente trabalho teórico elucida e discute alguns dos principais fenômenos que têm sido apontados pela literatura como fatores de risco para o envolvimento de indivíduos com o crime, nas esferas microssocial, macrossocial e psíquica, bem como alguns dentre os mais aceitos modelos teórico-explicativos desse fenômeno. O artigo conclui sinalizando para a multideterminação do envolvimento criminal, subjacente ao qual há uma constelação de fatores que atuam em rede e interagem dinamicamente entre si, arranjando-se de forma personalizada e singular em cada trajetória infracional. A compreensão desses fatores insinua-se como um importante passo na direção do planejamento e da implementação de estratégias sociais mais eficazes de prevenção e enfrentamento à criminalidade.(AU)

Criminality is one of the main concerns of contemporary society, which has become increasingly apprehensive about the growing climate of insecurity arising from it. In line with this social anxiety, researchers from different knowledge areas have endeavored to shed light on the causes of delinquency. This theoretical work elucidates and discusses some of the principal phenomena described in the literature as risk factors for an individual's involvement in crime, in the micro-social, macro-social and psychological spheres, as well as some from the most accepted theoretical and explanatory models for this phenomenon. The paper concludes by pointing out the multi-determinants of criminal involvement, underlying which is a constellation of factors that operate and interact dynamically in conjunction with one another, forming a personalized and singular pathway for each offender trajectory. Understanding these factors is an important step towards planning and implementing more effective social strategies for preventing and combating crime.(AU)

La criminalidad figura entre las mayores preocupaciones de la sociedad contemporánea, que ha quedado cada vez más preocupada por el creciente clima de inseguridad que la rodea. En sintonía con esa inquietud social, investigadores de distintas áreas del conocimiento se han esforzado, en el sentido de lanzar luces sobre las causas de la delincuencia. El presente trabajo teórico elucida y discute algunos de los principales fenómenos que han sido apuntados por la literatura como factores de riesgo para la implicación de individuos con el crimen, en las esferas micro-social, macro-social y psíquica, así como algunos de los más aceptados modelos teórico-explicativos de ese fenómeno. El artículo concluye señalando la multi-determinación de la implicación criminal, subyacente al cual hay una constelación de factores que actúan en red e interactúan dinámicamente entre sí, disponiéndose de forma personalizada y singular en cada trayectoria infraccional. La comprensión de estos factores implica un paso importante hacia la planificación y aplicación de estrategias sociales más eficaces de prevención y enfrentamiento a la criminalidad.(AU)

Assuntos

RESUMO

Human activity is organised around daily and weekly cycles, which should, in turn, dominate all types of social interactions, such as transactions, communications, gatherings and so on. Yet, despite their strategic importance for policing and security, cyclical weekly patterns in crime and road incidents have been unexplored at the city and neighbourhood level. Here we construct a novel method to capture the weekly trace, or "heartbeat" of events and use geotagged data capturing the time and location of more than 200,000 violent crimes and nearly one million crashes in Mexico City. On aggregate, our findings show that the heartbeats of crime and crashes follow a similar pattern. We observe valleys during the night and peaks in the evening, where the intensity during a peak is 7.5 times the intensity of valleys in terms of crime and 12.3 times in terms of road accidents. Although distinct types of events, crimes and crashes reach their respective intensity peak on Friday night and valley on Tuesday morning, the result of a hyper-synchronised society. Next, heartbeats are computed for city neighbourhood 'tiles', a division of space within the city based on the distance to Metro and other public transport stations. We find that heartbeats are spatially heterogeneous with some diffusion, so that nearby tiles have similar heartbeats. Tiles are then clustered based on the shape of their heartbeat, e.g., tiles within groups suffer peaks and valleys of crime or crashes at similar times during the week. The clusters found are similar to those based on economic activities. This enables us to anticipate temporal traces of crime and crashes based on local amenities.

Assuntos

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In 2009, Mexican Federal Government enacted "narcomenudeo" reforms decriminalizing possession of small amounts of drugs, delegating prosecution of retail drug sales to the state courts, and mandating treatment diversion for habitual drug users. There has been insufficient effort to formally assess the decriminalization policy's population-level impact, despite mounting interest in analagous reforms across the globe. METHODS: Using a dataset of municipal police incident reports, we examined patterns of drug possession, and violent and non-violent crime arrests between January 2009 and December 2014. A hierarchical panel data analysis with random effects was conducted to assess the impact of narcomenudeo's drug decriminalization provision. RESULTS: The reforms had no significant impact on the number of drug possession or violent crime arrests, after controlling for other variables (e.g. time trends, electoral cycles, and precinct-level socioeconomic factors). Time periods directly preceding local elections were observed to be statistically associated with elevated arrest volume. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of police statistics parallel prior findings that Mexico's reform decriminalizing small amounts of drugs does not appear to have significantly shifted drug law enforcement in Tijuana. More research is required to fully understand the policy transformation process for drug decriminalization and other structural interventions in Mexico and similar regional and international efforts. Observed relationship between policing and political cycles echo associations in other settings whereby law-and-order activities increase during mayoral electoral campaigns.

Assuntos

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the proportions of illicit cigarette consumption in Brazil from 2012 to 2016, a period of sharp increases in cigarette taxes. METHODS: We used an approach based on legal sales provided by the Secretariat of Federal Revenues and self-reported consumption data from an annually conducted telephone survey (VIGITEL) to estimate the changes over time in illegal cigarette use in Brazil. For that purpose, we also used available information on the proportion of illegal cigarette consumption from a nationwide household survey conducted in 2013 to calculate a constant proportion of underreporting from VIGITEL in relation to total consumption and sales in Brazil. RESULTS: There was an increase in the estimated proportion of illicit cigarette use from 2012 to 2013 (from 28.6% to 32.3%), then a decrease from 2013 to 2014 (32.3% to 28.8%), and then a sustained trend of increase from 2014 to 2016 (28.8% to 42.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Novel and feasible approaches to estimate changes over time in the illegal market are important for helping the effective implementation of tobacco excise tax policy.

Assuntos

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION Trinidad and Tobago is a trans-shipment point for the illegal trade of drugs, arms and ammunition and, as such, has a high incidence of gang-related warfare and drug-related crimes. This has led to a high incidence of gunshot and stab wounds, with associated major vascular injuries. We describe our management strategies learned from a decade of vascular trauma experience. METHODS A retrospective analysis of age, gender, type of trauma, vessel injured, procedure and outcome for all cases of vascular trauma between 2006 and 2015 at two surgical units in Trinidad and Tobago. RESULTS There were 198 vascular trauma cases (232 procedures), involving 159 (80%) males at a mean age of 33 years. Gunshots accounted for 103 (52%) cases, followed by stabs/chops (n=50; 25%) and lacerations (n=15; 8%). The most commonly injured vessels were the radial/ulnar arteries (n=39; 20%) and the superficial femoral artery (n=37; 19%). There were seven pseudoaneurysms and three traumatic arteriovenous fistulae. Repair techniques included primary (n=82; 35%), reversed vein (n=63; 27%), polytetrafluoroethylene (n=58; 25%), oversew (n=24; 10%) and endovascular (n=5; 2%) techniques. There were eight (4%) secondary amputations and eight (4%) deaths. CONCLUSIONS Major vascular trauma causes significant morbidity and mortality in Trinidad and Tobago, with the majority of cases due to gunshot injuries secondary to gang-related warfare and civilian violence. We compare our experience with that in the literature on the epidemiology and management of vascular trauma.

Assuntos

Assuntos

Assuntos

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To provide a brief history of the illicit tobacco trade between Mexico and the United States. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Research included a previously published study: "Cigarette taxes and smuggling: A statistical analysis and historical review", published by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy; US Customs and Border Protection data; various US court documents; General Accountability Office reporting; media reports; other historical material, and a personal interview. RESULTS: The research revealed that there is no credible evidence of organized criminal activity related to the illicit trade in tobacco products from Mexico into the United States. However, there is clear and convincing evidence of organized criminal activity in smuggling tobacco products from the United States into Mexico for at least 167 years. CONCLUSION: Historical records from 1845 into the 21st century clearly demonstrate that the United States was usually the source country for tobacco products moving illegally between the two countries.

Assuntos