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INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated the probability of developing malocclusions in mixed dentition. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted with 598 children (aged 5 years) in deciduous dentition. The children were followed for 3 years until mixed dentition (aged 8 years). Overjet, overbite, and transversal relations were evaluated. Bayesian models were used to analyze the data and estimate the parameters. RESULTS: The parameter θ was used for the distributions, indicating the probability of presenting a given condition with a credibility index (ICr) of 95%. After 3 years of follow-up, 121 children were reevaluated. The results showed that children have a high probability of malocclusion in mixed dentition. There was a higher probability of developing an increased overjet in the mixed dentition of 20.5% (ICr 95%, 13.6-28.4) to 48.3% (ICr 95%, 39.1-57.7) and a higher probability of having a normal overbite in the deciduous dentition and a lower probability in the mixed dentition (ICr 95%, 9.2-21.3). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the probabilistic model of Bayesian analysis, children with normal overjet in the deciduous dentition may show an increased overjet in the mixed dentition. Concerning overbite, children may present an anterior open bite during the transition between deciduous and mixed dentition, as well as self-correction of deep overbite in mixed dentition. Furthermore, they may present a posterior crossbite during the mixed dentition when there is a normal transverse relationship in the deciduous dentition.
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Teorema de Bayes , Dentição Mista , Má Oclusão , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Criança , Má Oclusão/etiologia , Feminino , Pré-Escolar , Masculino , Dente Decíduo , ProbabilidadeRESUMO
Methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain can be intermittent, posing challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts. This study examines shallow water facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico with repeat atmospheric observations to evaluate temporal variation in site-specific methane emissions. We combine new and previous observations to develop a longitudinal study, spanning from days to months to almost five years, evaluating the emissions behavior of sites over time. We also define and determine the chance of subsequent detection (CSD): the likelihood that an emitting site will be observed emitting again. The average emitting central hub in the Gulf has a 74% CSD at any time interval. Eight facilities contribute 50% of total emissions and are over 80% persistent with a 96% CSD above 100 kg/h and 46% persistent with a 42% CSD above 1000 kg/h, indicating that large emissions are persistent at certain sites. Forward-looking infrared (FLIR) footage shows many of these sites exhibiting cold venting. This suggests that for offshore, a low sampling frequency over large spatial coverage can capture typical site emissions behavior and identify targets for mitigation. We further demonstrate the preliminary use of space-based observations to monitor offshore emissions over time.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Metano , Metano/análise , Golfo do México , Estudos Longitudinais , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Probabilidade , Gás NaturalRESUMO
Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.
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Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Animais , Brasil , Agricultura Florestal , ProbabilidadeRESUMO
Several studies have investigated habituation in a defensive context, but few have addressed responses to dangerous stimuli. In such cases, animals should not habituate since this could cost their lives. Here we have stimulated individuals of the harvester Mischonyx squalidus with a predatory stimulus (squeezing with tweezers) in repeated trials within and between days, and measured the occurrence and magnitude of nipping, a defensive behavior. Contrary to our expectations, they did habituate to this stimulus. The probability and magnitude of response declined over trials during each of three days of testing in a typical habituation pattern. During the trials we also observed other defensive behaviors. We discuss our results mainly considering alternative defensive responses. Our data show that we lack information on (1) the role played by the ambiguity of stimuli, (2) the role played by subsequent stimuli and (3) the importance of the array of defensive behaviors of a species in understanding habituation. Although ubiquitous across animals and therefore expected, habituation is described for the first time in the order Opiliones.
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Aracnídeos , Humanos , Animais , Habituação Psicofisiológica , Comportamento Predatório , ProbabilidadeRESUMO
Probabilistic models enhance breeding, especially for the Tahiti acid lime, a fruit essential to fresh markets and industry. These models identify superior and persistent individuals using probability theory, providing a measure of uncertainty that can aid the recommendation. The objective of our study was to evaluate the use of a Bayesian probabilistic model for the recommendation of superior and persistent genotypes of Tahiti acid lime evaluated in 12 harvests. Leveraging the Monte Carlo Hamiltonian sampling algorithm, we calculated the probability of superior performance (superior genotypic value), and the probability of superior stability (reduced variance of the genotype-by-harvests interaction) of each genotype. The probability of superior stability was compared to a measure of persistence estimated from genotypic values predicted using a frequentist model. Our results demonstrated the applicability and advantages of the Bayesian probabilistic model, yielding similar parameters to those of the frequentist model, while providing further information about the probabilities associated with genotype performance and stability. Genotypes G15, G4, G18, and G11 emerged as the most superior in performance, whereas G24, G7, G13, and G3 were identified as the most stable. This study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian probabilistic models in the fruit trees cultivars recommendation.
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Compostos de Cálcio , Óxidos , Melhoramento Vegetal , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Probabilidade , PolinésiaRESUMO
Computing the agreement between 2 continuous sequences is of great interest in statistics when comparing 2 instruments or one instrument with a gold standard. The probability of agreement quantifies the similarity between 2 variables of interest, and it is useful for determining what constitutes a practically important difference. In this article, we introduce a generalization of the PA for the treatment of spatial variables. Our proposal makes the PA dependent on the spatial lag. We establish the conditions for which the PA decays as a function of the distance lag for isotropic stationary and nonstationary spatial processes. Estimation is addressed through a first-order approximation that guarantees the asymptotic normality of the sample version of the PA. The sensitivity of the PA with respect to the covariance parameters is studied for finite sample size. The new method is described and illustrated with real data involving autumnal changes in the green chromatic coordinate (Gcc), an index of "greenness" that captures the phenological stage of tree leaves, is associated with carbon flux from ecosystems, and is estimated from repeated images of forest canopies.
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Ecossistema , Florestas , Probabilidade , Tamanho da AmostraRESUMO
PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the ability of the percentage of decrease in serum PTH level in the first 8 h after total thyroidectomy (TT) to predict hypocalcemia requiring Ca supplementation and develop a tool to predict it. METHODS: 97 patients who underwent TT with measurement of preoperative parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels were prospectively evaluated 1 and 8 h after TT; postoperative magnesium (Mg2PO) and phosphorus levels were evaluated on the 2nd day after surgery. The percentage of decrease in PTH level 1 h (%dPTH1h) and 8 h (%dPTH8h) postoperatively and predictors of hypocalcemia requiring Ca supplementation were evaluated and an equation was developed to predict this outcome. RESULTS: %dPTH1h (p = 0.002), %dPTH8h (p = 0.001) and (Mg2PO) (p < 0.01) were isolated predictors of postoperative hypocalcemia requiring Ca supplementation. The data obtained led to the development of two tools to predict this complication. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of decrease in PTH level 1 h and 8 h postoperatively and the magnesium level on the 2nd day after surgery were predictors of more severe hypocalcemia, and an auxiliary tool for predicting this complication was developed.
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Hipocalcemia , Humanos , Hipocalcemia/epidemiologia , Hipocalcemia/etiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Tireoidectomia/efeitos adversos , Magnésio , ProbabilidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUNDING: Stayability, which may be defined as the probability of a cow remaining in the herd until a reference age or at a specific number of calvings, is usually measured late in the animal's life. Thus, if used as selection criteria, it will increase the generation interval and consequently might decrease the annual genetic gain. Measuring stayability at an earlier age could be a reasonable strategy to avoid this problem. In this sense, a better understanding of the genetic architecture of this trait at different ages and/or at different calvings is important. This study was conducted to identify possible regions with major effects on stayability measured considering different numbers of calvings in Nellore cattle as well as pathways that can be involved in its expression throughout the female's productive life. RESULTS: The top 10 most important SNP windows explained, on average, 17.60% of the genetic additive variance for stayability, varying between 13.70% (at the eighth calving) and 21% (at the fifth calving). These SNP windows were located on 17 chromosomes (1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20, 27, and 28), and they harbored a total of 176 annotated genes. The functional analyses of these genes, in general, indicate that the expression of stayability from the second to the sixth calving is mainly affected by genetic factors related to reproductive performance, and nervous and immune systems. At the seventh and eighth calvings, genes and pathways related to animal health, such as density bone and cancer, might be more relevant. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that part of the target genomic regions in selecting for stayability at earlier ages (from the 2th to the 6th calving) would be different than selecting for this trait at later ages (7th and 8th calvings). While the expression of stayability at earlier ages appeared to be more influenced by genetic factors linked to reproductive performance together with an overall health/immunity, at later ages genetic factors related to an overall animal health gain relevance. These results support that selecting for stayability at earlier ages (perhaps at the second calving) could be applied, having practical implications in breeding programs since it could drastically reduce the generation interval, accelerating the genetic progress.
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Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Genômica , Feminino , Animais , Bovinos/genética , Fenótipo , Probabilidade , Reprodução/genéticaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To quantitate the impact of heart donation after circulatory death (DCD) donor utilization on both waitlist and post-transplant outcomes in the United States. METHODS: The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried to identify all adult waitlisted and transplanted candidates between October 18, 2018, and December 31, 2022. Waitlisted candidates were stratified according to whether they had been approved for donation after brain death (DBD) offers only or also approved for DCD offers. The cumulative incidence of transplantation was compared between the 2 cohorts. In a post-transplant analysis, 1-year post-transplant survival was compared between unmatched and propensity-score-matched cohorts of DBD and DCD recipients. RESULTS: A total of 14,803 candidates were waitlisted, including 12,287 approved for DBD donors only and 2516 approved for DCD donors. Overall, DCD approval was associated with an increased sub-hazard ratio (HR) for transplantation and a lower sub-HR for delisting owing to death/deterioration after risk adjustment. In a subgroup analysis, candidates with blood type B and status 4 designation received the greatest benefit from DCD approval. A total of 12,238 recipients underwent transplantation, 11,636 with DBD hearts and 602 with DCD hearts. Median waitlist times were significantly shorter for status 3 and status 4 recipients receiving DCD hearts. One-year post-transplant survival was comparable between unmatched and propensity score-matched cohorts of DBD and DCD recipients. CONCLUSIONS: The use of DCD hearts confers a higher probability of transplantation and a lower incidence of death/deterioration while on the waitlist, particularly among certain subpopulations such as status 4 candidates. Importantly, the use of DCD donors results in similar post-transplant survival as DBD donors.
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Transplante de Coração , Obtenção de Tecidos e Órgãos , Adulto , Humanos , Morte Encefálica , Doadores de Tecidos , Transplante de Coração/efeitos adversos , Probabilidade , Encéfalo , Estudos Retrospectivos , Sobrevivência de EnxertoRESUMO
Geographic barriers can come and go depending on natural conditions. These fluctuations cause population cycles of expansion and contraction, introducing intermittent migrations that may not hinder speciation but rather promote diversification. Here, we study a neutral 2-island speciation model with intermittent migration driven by sea-level fluctuations. Seabed depth modulates isolation and connection periods between the islands, with migration occurring during connection periods with a certain probability. Mating is restricted to genetically compatible individuals on the same island and offspring inherit genomes from both parents through recombination. We observe speciation pulses that would not occur under strict isolation or continuous migration, with infrequent, temporary increases in species richness happening at different times depending on the combination of geographic settings and migration probability. The resulting dynamic patterns of richness exhibit contrasting behavior between connected and isolated scenarios, often including species that do not persist. Prolonged isolation can reduce richness to 1 species per island, resembling patterns commonly associated with archipelagos under sea-level fluctuations. Together with other studies, our results in out-of-equilibrium populations support the relevance of investigating the impact of variable migration on diversification, particularly in regions of high diversity.