Decision analysis framework for predicting no-shows to appointments using machine learning algorithms.
BMC Health Serv Res
; 24(1): 37, 2024 Jan 05.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38183029
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
No-show to medical appointments has significant adverse effects on healthcare systems and their clients. Using machine learning to predict no-shows allows managers to implement strategies such as overbooking and reminders targeting patients most likely to miss appointments, optimizing the use of resources.METHODS:
In this study, we proposed a detailed analytical framework for predicting no-shows while addressing imbalanced datasets. The framework includes a novel use of z-fold cross-validation performed twice during the modeling process to improve model robustness and generalization. We also introduce Symbolic Regression (SR) as a classification algorithm and Instance Hardness Threshold (IHT) as a resampling technique and compared their performance with that of other classification algorithms, such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), and resampling techniques, such as Random under Sampling (RUS), Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and NearMiss-1. We validated the framework using two attendance datasets from Brazilian hospitals with no-show rates of 6.65% and 19.03%.RESULTS:
From the academic perspective, our study is the first to propose using SR and IHT to predict the no-show of patients. Our findings indicate that SR and IHT presented superior performances compared to other techniques, particularly IHT, which excelled when combined with all classification algorithms and led to low variability in performance metrics results. Our results also outperformed sensitivity outcomes reported in the literature, with values above 0.94 for both datasets.CONCLUSION:
This is the first study to use SR and IHT methods to predict patient no-shows and the first to propose performing z-fold cross-validation twice. Our study highlights the importance of avoiding relying on few validation runs for imbalanced datasets as it may lead to biased results and inadequate analysis of the generalization and stability of the models obtained during the training stage.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Algoritmos
/
Benchmarking
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Health Serv Res
Assunto da revista:
PESQUISA EM SERVICOS DE SAUDE
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Brasil
País de publicação:
Reino Unido